The biggest surprise and disappointment for every National League team
Atlanta Braves
Surprise: Kyle Wright
Atlanta needed some more guys in the rotation and boy, did they find a good one in Kyle Wright. He has slotted in fantastically well this year with a 2.68 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and 1.3 fWAR after nine starts. He has finally found a stable spot in the rotation after going up and down for a few seasons, and it has worked out for both Wright and the Braves. Hopefully, they will have a three-headed monster ready for the playoffs when Mike Soroka comes back.
Disappointment: Charlie Morton
Morton made the most out of his late-career run before hitting a wall this season. It was bound to happen some time. His walks are higher and strikeouts lower while allowing more hits and home runs. A 5.28 ERA and 4.51 FIP with xFIP and SIERA look pretty similar. He has pitched better in May, so hopefully that is a sign he is starting to turn it around.
Ian Anderson has not pitched great this year. Still, it is more on par with his expected stats and SIERA and less of a drop, so Morton struggling is a more notable disappointment.
Miami Marlins
Surprise: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Pablo López has also been a wonderful surprise for the Marlins, but Jazz’s jump to a star level has been much larger than Pablo’s. Chisholm has gone from a .728 OPS, 98 WRC+, and 2.0 fWAR in total last season to now hitting to the tune of a .921 OPS, 156 WRC+, and 1.9 fWAR in just 34 games. His fielding by DRS and UZR standards hasn’t been good, but OAA loves him. Jazz has not just exceeded expectations; he has blown them out of the water.
Disappointment: Trevor Rogers
There are a few options here with Rogers, Avisail Garcia, Jesus Sanchez, and even Elieser Hernandez. However, Garcia appears to be underperforming, and for Sanchez and Hernandez, I don’t view their drop the same as Trevor’s.
Rogers had over 4 fWAR last season with a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP, with over 10 K/9 and only about 3 BB/9. Expected stats predicted some regression, but not this much. It is mainly the fastball getting hit so bad, so if he can adjust his location or mix, that could turn things around.
New York Mets
Surprise: Jeff McNeil
The Flying Squirrel is back! After a rough 2021, McNeil appears to be back to the level of player we have come to expect. He has already surpassed his fWAR from last season, now sitting at 1.8. He has improved his .679 OPS and 93 WRC+ to being at .829 and 141, the second-highest WRC+ on the team behind Brandon Nimmo. The Mets look like one of the best teams in baseball, and McNeil has been a big reason behind their success.
Disappointment: Eduardo Escobar
It was actually hard finding someone for the Mets. J.D. Davis and Bassitt haven’t been great, but their underlying numbers look promising. Starling Marte regressed from last season but it looks like an outlier compared to most of his career.
That leaves Escobar, who looks like he is hitting the same as last year if you just go by WRC+. But in this case, that just means he is hitting about the same compared to the league average. Overall, he is still hitting worse compared to last season with a .692 OPS, and expected numbers are about the same.
Philadelphia Phillies
Surprise: Alec Bohm
I also considered Kyle Gibson for this as he has pitched better than usual. However, I feel like Bohm bouncing back is a bigger surprise and much more needed for this team. Bohm is has moved up his .647 OPS to .7252 this season which might not seem that great. However, given the league’s state with many players struggling offensively, it is probably more impressive than you think. Along with that, if his expected stats are correct, he could get even better throughout the season.
Disappointment: Ranger Suárez
He was very successful last season, whether he was a starter or coming out of the bullpen. Through 12 starts, he had a 1.51 ERA and 2.35 FIP, but 2022 has been a different story. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, and he has allowed more hard contact. Locating his pitches seems like the most significant issue. His sinker has caught too much of the middle of the zone, and his changeup missing too much of the zone in general. If he can turn it around, this rotation looks like one of the more well-rounded ones in baseball.
Washington Nationals
Surprise: Yadiel Hernández
Where the heck did this guy come from? Hernández is 34 years old, and coming off his rookie season in 2021. He has improved from last season, improving his slash line numbers from .273/.329/413 to .307/.350/.472. Expected numbers for this season look on par, so this level of play should continue. Given his age and the current situation of the Nationals, he could be a trade piece at the deadline.
Young prospect Keibert Ruiz has also been good, but I feel like people expected that from him, so I went with Hernández instead.
Disappointment: Patrick Corbin
Corbin has been on this level of play for a while now, and it has already been disappointing. Still, the lack of any turnaround since 2020 is disheartening. I dove into what as happened to Corbin on my YouTube channel, which you can check out here. A change of scenery could be the only thing to try and get a bounce back from him. Washington will need a lot of luck to find anyone interested in taking on that contract.