Win or lose, Miami Marlins trading same player this summer

Whatever happens between now and the MLB Trade Deadline, the Miami Marlins will be dealing the same player this summer.

Even with more playoff spots than ever before, the Miami Marlins still find themselves unsure whether or not they will be buyers or sellers as MLB Trade Deadline season starts to heat up.

However, win or lose between now then, there should be no doubt that the same player is getting dealt. Jesus Aguilar‘s days with the Miami Marlins are numbered.

Why am I so sure about this? Two words. Lewin Diaz.

Diaz is one of the top prospects in the Marlins organization, and currently paces Triple-A Jacksonville with 12 home runs. Just as important, if not more so, is his defense, which projects as Gold Glove-caliber. Miami needs to see what they have in him, as the answer will have a significant impact on the organization’s roster construction plans for 2023 and beyond.

This dilemma is hardly news to Marlins fans, as it came as somewhat of a surprise when the team even entered 2022 with both Aguilar and Garrett Cooper on the MLB roster to begin with. Speculation was heavy all offseason that one of them would be moved. Honestly, it’s very likely one of them would have been if any of those rumored trades or free agent signings for a big bat had taken place.

What did strike me as news though was a recent MLB.com piece that seemed to suggest that such a trade would only happen if the Miami Marlins continued their likely trajectory to becoming a seller. Because for my money, this is a trade that gets made whether Miami spends the next two weeks going 13-0 or 0-13.

Win or lose, this Marlins team has holes to fill. Aguilar is blocking a high upside prospect that is MLB-ready, makes nearly three times as much money as Cooper, and is a free agent at the end of the season. Cooper has a year of control left, can theoretically play more positions (even if doing so is a terrible idea injury-risk wise), and is performing at a much higher level. If you go by wRC+, he’s been one of ten best first basemen in baseball, and is a top 30 hitter overall. Aguilar … has very much not.

Still, Aguilar has been serviceable, can get hot in a hurry, and is a great locker room presence. You can see why one would argue a contender wouldn’t trade him, even if he was relegated largely to a part-time role. Miami would miss him. However, they would get over it in a hurry if moving him meant being able to acquire an extra high leverage reliever or added offensive firepower at a position that can’t be easily addressed within the organization. Trading Aguilar for 2022 help needn’t happen in a vacuum — the resulting salary relief and roster space can set up other moves.

And if Miami does fall out of it good? It’s not hard at all to see a contending team dealing a useful prospect for a summer rental of Aguilar.

Either way, the writing is on the wall for what the first trade of the Miami Marlins summer trade season needs to be. The only question is whether that move and the ones that follow are meant to win now, or win next season.