Chicago Cubs: A cautionary note about Willson Contreras

Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras is, by most speculations, either the most coveted player in mid-season trade rumors or among the two or three most-coveted.

That’s understandable. He is a free agent at year’s end with little prospect of being re-signed.

Beyond that, he’s batting .277 with a .933 OPS which is among the majors’ 10 highest. No other catcher is carrying a slugging average within 150 points of Contreras.

His defensive work is at best acceptable, but given that level of production contending teams will be quite willing to look past his routine defense.

Combine his offense with the fact that Contreras is reported to be seeking a five-year, $100 million deal when he hits free agency in November plus his team’s sub-par standing in the NL Central and the likelihood of Contreras being moved at or near the trade deadline approaches certainty.

The potential pitfall of trading for Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras

But contenders interested in dealing for Contreras – we’re looking at you, Mets, Giants and Yankees – might want to keep in mind one cautionary note. Contreras has in recent seasons become something of a notorious first-half player.

Over the course of his career with the Cubs, Contreras is a.260 hitter with a .326 on base average and .468 slugging average. That’s very good for a guy playing a defense-first position.

But here’s the rub. Between season’s start and July 31, Contreras historically produces a .266/.331/.478 slash line. From Aug. 1 through season’s end – the months when a catcher tends to wear down – that slash line drops to .247/.314/.430.

His power and contact numbers also suffer. For the entire season, his 105 home runs in 2,573 plate appearances translates to one homer every 24.5 chances. He strikes out once every 4.13 plate appearances.

From April through July 31, his home run rate improves to one every 23.6 plate appearances, and his strikeout rate improves to one every 4.16 trips.

But beyond July 31, both his power and contract dissipate. After Aug. 1, he only homers once every 26.8 plate appearances, and his strikeout rate goes to one every 4.05 appearances.

The Cubs, aware of this almost annual decline and attributing it to the natural fatigue accruing to a guy who spends the season in a crouch, have tried offsetting that production decline by using Contreras more and more this season as a designated hitter. Through the team’s first 47 games in 2022, he has made only 33 appearances behind the plate with another 13 at DH.

Last year, by contrast, Contreras played in 128 games, 116 of them at catcher and almost all the rest as a pinch hitter. He did not DH at all.

There is irony in the fact that the Cubs’ ability to nurse Contreras’ catching workload comes in the season when they are almost guaranteed to trade him away just at the moment when  they hope that eased defensive workload will begin to kick in.

Whichever team eventually acquires Willson Contreras doubtless will hope that the Chicago Cubs’ concern for his late-season trends is assuaged by the reduced defensive load. That, however, is something Contreras will have to demonstrate for whosever uniform he’s wearing this August and September.