MLB 2022: 7 dark horse Cy Young candidates at this moment

Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres

• 7-0 Record
• 1.50 ERA
• 72 Ks in 72 IP
• 25.6% K-rate
• 2.59 xERA
• 2.65 FIP

Joe Musgrove underrated? It certainly doesn’t seem like a correct characterization, but believe it or not, Muss is still very much under-the-radar.

The stats speak for themselves. He has the best ERA in baseball as of now, among starters of course, and the Friars have gone an enviable 10-1 in Musgrove-started games.

I’m sure many never saw him coming as a sort of “throw-away” acquisition the Padres made a couple years ago. I’d include myself in that group. But looking at his spin, it’s crystal-clear to me that this guy is one of the elite pitchers in the game today.

Every pitch Musgrove throws clocks elite spin.

• 4-seamer at 2,555 rpms
• Slider at 2,722 rpms
• Curveball at 2,755 rpms
• Cutter at 2,608 rpms
• Sinker at 2,451 rpms
• Changeup at 2,010 rpms

For those that follow spin, you know how elite this is. For those that don’t, these spin rates put him in a ground level of the 86th percentile for each pitch.

I think Joe is just getting started, and pending another Padres second half collapse, I expect him to finish anywhere from third to first place in Cy Young contention this year.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

• 4-2 Record
• 2.95 ERA
• 55 Ks in 58 IP
• 23% K-rate
• 3.32 xERA
• 3.67 FIP

I’m quite certain there’s a large contingency of people out there that chalk Zac Gallen’s string first half up to being in the realm of a fluke, but I think he’s very much here to stay.

The Diamondbacks have a very underrated pitching staff headed by Gallen. At some point, I do believe their bats will slow down, as it’s a lineup very much carried by the home run ball. But the pitching should be able to maintain and give Gallen the momentum he needs to finish the year strong … and hopefully healthy.

What’s most impressive when it comes to Gallen is that he is primarily running on a strong fastball with some average-to-below-average secondary stuff.

His curveball is generating 2,463 rpms worth of spin right now, which is about league average.

His changeup is generating 1,555 rpms of spin, which is pretty below-average for a changeup (1,700 is about the average).

But his 4-seamer is generating 2,454 rpms (above-average) while his cutter is generating 2,444 rpms (elite level). Had Gallen been a tad walk-crazy this year like some of the other guys on this list, I’d say you’d have a point to perhaps be skeptical of his success. But since he’s walking about 6.7% of his batters this season, I think working with a fastball-heavy arsenal can pan out well for him in the long run.

The D-Backs have a very underrated pitching staff, and pending complete collapse, I’d say Gallen is in good enough company right now to maintain the roll he’s been on in the first few months.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

• 5-2 Record
• 2.33 ERA
• 70 Ks in 65.2 IP
• 27.7% K-rate
• 2.63 xERA
• 2.10 FIP

I’m very pleased to see what Skubal has been able to do so far in 2022. Last season, we saw a huge drop-off in his spin from 2020 where he’d gone from upwards of 2,400 rpms on his 4-seamer (above-average) to just under 2,200 rpms (well-below-average).

What intrigues me about what he’s done this year is that his spin has decreased once again from last year to just under 2,150 rpms. His slider, curveball, and changeup spin would also be considered bottom-tier as it sits now.

So, what gives? How is Skubal doing as well as he is and getting as many strikeouts as he’s getting?

Strikes.

He’s cut his walk rate from last year virtually in-half, and is giving out free passes at a 4% rate currently.

Maybe this doesn’t last. His spin is certainly down once again, and his secondary pitches really have never been quite competitive compared to most other pitchers in the league.

But so long as he continues to pound the zone and keep batting orders moving quickly, I think he’s going to finish up with a solid 2022 campaign.

I would also watch for a second half Tigers turnaround. They were supposed to be a solid team, and have underperformed to this moment. I find it hard to believe their lineup is not going to hit at all this season, so the upside for the second half certainly seems like it’s higher than a lot of other teams.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

• 2-2 Record
• 1.94 ERA
• 51 Ks in 51 IP
• 25.5% K-rate
• 3.03 xERA
• 3.12 FIP

What went for Dylan Cease also sort of goes for Kopech here. Once the White Sox clean up their act, guys like Cease and Kopech are going to start racking up wins and shooting up the Cy Young discussions.

Kopech has performed similarly to Cease this season, Walks have been an issue, while his stuff has certainly kept him from capsizing.

Somewhat like Cease, Kopech has actually seen a decrease in “stuff” as opposed to last season. Only in Kopech’s case, the drop in velocity has been an eye opener.

In 2021, Kope was used more as a bullpen weapon as he was still recovering from Tommy John. This season, now plugged into the rotation, he has seen his velo drop from 97.3 mph to 95.3 mph on the fastball.

His slider spin has dropped from 2,465 rpms to 2,416 rpms, while curveball spin has dipped from 2,485 rpms to 2,419 rpms. Difference being, as compared to his teammate Cease, Kopech’s spin on the secondary pitches was never on the level Cease’s was.

To me, that makes Kopech’s rise even that more impressive, as he’s seeing a slight decrease in velocity as well as a decrease in spin from “average” to “even more average” and still coming in with a sub-2 ERA in mid June as a full-fledged starter for a struggling White Sox team.

We shall see how Kope continues to progress the rest of the season. But as of now, I believe he and Dylan Cease are the two catalysts in this White Sox rotation.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

• 4-4 Record
• 3.50 ERA
• 85 Ks in 74.2 IP
• 29.3% K-rate
• 2.67 xERA
• 3.24 FIP

Nola was one of my favorite pitchers coming into this season. I had him outperforming a banged-up Zack Wheeler, leading the Phils to the postseason in 2022, and finishing closer in the Cy Young vote than many others did not anticipate. To this moment I still feel good about that potentially happening.

Here’s the great thing about Nola — he has very average-to-below-average spin on most of his pitches, yet he gets the strikeout numbers Zack Wheeler should be getting.

He’s currently fifth in punch-outs in MLB, and the only pitch he has with impressive spin is his curveball that’s coming in at 2,550 rpms. And that’s not even that great.

This is a guy who has figured out how to be effective and miss bats with below-average stuff velo and spin-wise. He’s someone I look to as an example why spin is not the be-all, end-all because year-in and year-out he racks up 200+ strikeouts despite having low levels of spin. He certainly looks to be headed for 200+ punch-outs yet again in 2022.

What hasn’t gone his way this year is “luck.” He should objectively have eight wins by now if it weren’t for his struggling team letting him down in the first Dodgers game, the Angel Hernandez Brewers game when he went for 9 Ks, and two Mets games, one of which the Phils notoriously blew a 7-1 lead in the ninth inning.

But this happened last year to someone else noteworthy. The Brewers lost six of Corbin Burnes’ first eight starts last year while they won 10 of Brandon Woodruff’s first 13 starts. In the second half, that basically switched around and it was Corbin Burnes who had his team win 17 of his last 20 starts that helped him coast to an NL Cy Young award.

I’m feeling it this year with Aaron Nola and the Phillies. They let him down for pretty much the entire first half, but now the wins are starting to come his way and his luck is turning around on the back of him already pitching very well. The Phils are starting to turn their season around.

The strikeouts are there. The accuracy is there. The fancy “expected stats” from Baseball Savant are there. Aaron Nola is a lot better than many people give him credit for. I think he comes on stronger as the season progresses.

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

• 6-2 Record
• 1.61 ERA
• 77 Ks in 83.2 IP
• 24.1% K-rate
• 2.53 xERA
• 2.96 FIP
• *320 Batters Faced (leads MLB)

Finally, the guy who has faced more batters than anybody in baseball to this point is killing it right now in ERA.

Talk about putting a team on your back. The Marlins have one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball as the team has found itself the losers of 15 one-run games in 2022. The Fishies’ lineup is getting it done. Its rotation is getting it done. It’s just their bullpen that has been screwing them, and it is a major reason we’ve seen Sandy Alcantara have to go seven or more innings in seven of his 12 starts this year, including each of his last six starts.

The workload is mounting itself on Alcantara’s resume, yet he continues to completely barrel through lineups on a gamely basis.

He’s got elite level spin on his changeup (2,032 rpms) despite the rest of his pitches sitting at mid-level-to-below-average levels of spin. His velocity allows him to get away with more mistakes and less movement on his fastballs.

I sure hope he can keep up the good work and continue to carry the Marlins. For someone to face more batters than any other pitcher and still come in with a 1.61 ERA is truly a special talent.

I’m going to be keeping a close eye on Alcantara as well as the Marlins to have a strong second half. They are currently 4 games under .500 despite facing a brutal schedule amidst team disharmony.

The Marlins have the talent to steal a playoff spot, and I think Sandy Alcantara can most certainly vault his way into a Cy Young discussion by year’s end.