Are the Miami Marlins being dumb, cheap, or smart in 2022?

The Miami Marlins Are Dumb

This first explanation for the Miami Marlins fortunes in 2022 might appear to be low-hanging fruit, and without question as a bit unkind. Still…are they just dumb? Or, more politely, just really bad at their jobs?

Certainly, everyone employed by the organization knows a great deal more about baseball operations than I do. And while I don’t want to speak for the majority of the internet…actually, I’m comfortable doing that as well. The Marlins know way more than most of us, even if there are nights it doesn’t seem like it.

Consequently, I’d call this possibility the least likely. But it is possible the Miami Marlins just aren’t good at player evaluation, relative to the rest of the league. Particularly when it comes to free agents. Even the most grizzled Marlins fan would struggle to name the last time a free agent signing really worked out, and the most pie-eyed defender of the team would struggle to defend any free agent transaction made in 2022. That slump admittedly covers a few different GMs and two different owners, but it’s fair to wonder if problems extend beyond payroll in that department.

The 2022 Miami Marlins scapegoat most pointed to is Avisail Garcia. Leaving his $53 million contract aside, it is a deal that has stung on production alone. In 88 more at-bats, Garcia’s 2022 WAR…is exactly the same as that of Bryan De La Cruz. And it took a really big hot streak in June for Garcia to get there. Basically, they already had Garcia on the roster…and opted instead to go outside the organization to replace him.

Mark Canha and Joc Pederson both signed for less money elsewhere, and would have clearly been better fits. Both players are garnering serious All-Star consideration. Meanwhile, Garcia has been lucky to hold on to his position in Miami’s lineup. That’s bad enough, and we haven’t even gotten to the part where we circle back to the decision to not make the same contract offer to Starling Marte last July that they ended up making this past November.

Of course, there was another major blemish on the Miami Marlins offseason, and that’s the closer situation. Covering that, though, requires turning our attention to the second explanation…

The Miami Marlins Are Cheap

Because it could also just be that the Miami Marlins are cheap.

Cheap now, cheap before, pretty much on track to perpetually be cheap. Maybe some day the city of Miami completely becomes the new face of Amazon and Jeff Bezos buys the baseball team. Until then though? Cheap.

Which is why they decided to roll the dice on Anthony Bender being a solid enough ninth inning option, and decided against paying one of at least six better options. Which is why a superstar shortstop was never in the cards, and neither was a comparatively affordable slugger like Kyle Schwarber. Or to go back to a misstep already covered, why they didn’t just make Marte a better offer last summer.

Without question, market realities do need to be considered. It’s fine that the Miami Marlins couldn’t afford Corey Seager. Few teams could have. The Marlins just don’t have the revenue streams to go toe to toe with the Dodgers, Mets, Rangers, and Yankees. But not dropping $3 to $7 million on a quality reliever? Especially when the bullpen was the biggest weakness on your team heading into the season? That’s criminal.

Regrettably, cheap doesn’t just have to refer to money either. Over the last few years, the Miami Marlins have built up quite the farm system- which is great. The thing is, at a certain point, you either have to call those prospects up or trade them for bigger name talent. Hold on to them too long, and they lose their luster. They get hurt. They get blocked. Miami has seen all of these outcomes happen in 2022, a frustrating scenario made all the more frustrating by how easy it was to see coming. At some point, the prospect hugging has to stop.

Then again, perhaps it is about to stop after all, assuming that…

The Miami Marlins Are Smart

But what if everything the Miami Marlins have done is actually part of a grand strategy? A calculated plan. What if…the Miami Marlins are actually being smart?

The Mets weren’t going to be outspent by anyone. The Braves just won a World Series, and were going to be coming into 2022 with a better team.  Despite that, at least two teams in the NL West are better than the Braves, and possibly three. Even with an expanded playoff, it was always going to be a very narrow road to October.

Especially when you consider that the total number of players on the Miami Marlins roster they had any reasonable right to feel fully confident in going into the season was…one.

Obviously, that player was Sandy Alcantara, who proved himself so unquestionably elite that the Marlins extended him with two years of arbitration left on his original deal. Pablo Lopez looked legit in 2021, but did nothing to dispel the injury questions that have followed him his entire career. Jazz Chisholm Jr. flashed promise and had a great April last year, but then stumbled his way to the finish line. As for everyone else? Either similar questions, or were best described as a JAG- just a guy- in terms of their value.

That’s tenuous ground to launch a playoff run from if you’re working with limited assets.

Teams like the Miami Marlins can’t afford to whiff on big contracts, or really even on that many prospect centered trades. When the Dodgers or the Red Sox blow it, they can spend their way out of it. Smaller payroll teams could take years to recover from such a stumble. So it stands to reason that the Marlins might have wanted to know that Chisholm Jr. was a budding a superstar before pumping major money into the team. That the Marlins needed to be sure which of their treasure trove of pitchers they were keeping, and who they were comfortable dealing to fill other holes on the roster.

This line of thinking is only helped out by just how poorly this year’s free agent class really lined up with Miami’s needs outside of Marte. That should be a different story in 2023. Throw in that it will be another season removed from both Covid and lockout concerns, as well as after another year of the organization paying off some debt from the purchase of the team…and it all lines up for a better shot at realizing their on the field goals in 2023 than they ever had in 2022.

Verdict On The Miami Marlins?

So what’s the final verdict? For their part, the Miami Marlins never really went into the season intending to truly compete. They believe they’re being smart. Saving money, suppressing prospects that are ready and keeping their service time clocks from starting to tick until they feel they have the best shot of hitting their target. It actually makes a fair bit of sense, in a cold blooded, Machiavellian kind of way.

The only problem is that the Marlins have three players that are looking like locks to make the All-Star team, and could end up with a fourth.

Chisholm answered the budding superstar bell. Lopez has been a rock. And Alcantara…has become one of the five best pitchers in the majors. He’s not just making it to the All-Star Game, but beating down the door to start it. The pieces were there to make a playoff run in 2022 after all, if only more had been invested in to it in the offseason. Tanner Scott might be providing some stability now, but what if the Marlins had gone out and acquired one of those top relievers to start the season with? That alone makes this a .500 ballclub right now, maybe even a winner. And if they had pulled the trigger on one of those rumored CF trades? Teams are chasing them for one of those last two Wild Card spots.

Bottom-line, it was the smart play at the time. Fast forward to right now though, and the Miami Marlins are once again looking cheap and dumb. Hopefully they can change that perception at the deadline.

There’s still time for Miami’s front office to change the story on 2022. Until that happens though, expect most of this fanbase to keep thinking to themselves that this season is another case of “same old Marlins.”