NL East: A mid-term front office assessment of the 5 teams

The New York Mets have dominated the NL East, and first-year general manager Billy Eppler’s front office is a big part of the reason why.

Blessed with the game’s largest payroll, Eppler’s front office has created the premier turnaround in the National League through the first half of the 2021 season. Based on data through July 1, Eppler’s moves have improved the Mets by 5.3 games. That means the front office actions have been a large part of the reason why the Mets lead the division by three and one-half games.

The analysis that follows is an assessment of the impact each NL East front office’s personnel decisions since November of 2021 have had on their team’s standing right now.

It is based on the aggregate Wins Above Average of moves made in five areas:

• Players acquired by trade, purchase or waiver claim.
• Players signed as free agents or extended for more than one year.
• Minor league call-ups.
• Players lost via trade, waiver claim, or sale.
• Players lost to free agency or released.

Wins Above Average is the preferred metric for this calculation because it is zero-based, meaning that it approximately reflects the number of games by which a front office either helped or hurt its team in the standings.

There was one change of significance to front office leadership in the division this season. That occurred in Queens, where Eppler was brought in by new owner Steve Cohen to handle day-to-day operations from Sandy Alderson, who remains as team president.

Otherwise the roster of front office bosses remains unchanged from 2021:

• Atlanta: Alex Anthopoulos, president of baseball operations and general manager.
• Miami: Kim Ng, general manager.
• Philadelphia: Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations; Sam Fuld, general manager.
• Washington: Mike Rizzo, president of baseball operations and general manager.

In order of effectiveness, here’s how all five NL East front offices have performed thus far in 2022. Also listed are the most significant moves by each front office.

New York Mets front office, +5.3

Eppler’s front office stole many of the offseason headlines with a spending spree that brought in such stars as Max Scherzer (3 years, $130 million), Starling Marte (4 years, $78 million), Mark Canha (2 years, $26.5 million), and Carlos Carrasco. Francisco Lindor’s 10-year, $341 million extension also went into effect, although terms of that deal were in place before Eppler came onboard.

All told, Eppler’s front office has made 34 personnel moves involving major league players since the end of the 2021 season. Twenty-one of those moves impacted the Mets positively, 10 were negative and three were neutral.

Statistically, here are the most impactful moves made by Eppler involving players who performed in the major leagues in 2022.

Dec. 1: Eppler got Scherzer, a free agent, to commit to that three-year, $130 million deal. Scherzer has spent time on the injured list, but when he has taken the mound he has been as effective as advertised. In eight starts, he has a 5-1 record and 2.54 ERA with a +1.3 WAA.

Nov. 30: One day before locking down Scherzer, Eppler got Marte’s signature on that four-year deal. He’s off to a .279 start with seven homers and a .765 OPS that equates to another +1.3 WAA.

Nov. 3: Good GMs know which players to let walk as well as which ones to sign. Eppler let veteran middle infielder Jonathan Villar become a free agent. The Cubs signed Villar for $4.5 million, and he promptly crashed and burned. Following a .222 batting average, eight fielding errors, and a -1.3 WAA, the Cubs also cut ties with him.

Nov. 3: Smart free agent decision No. 2. Nov. 3 was also the day the Mets said goodbye to reliever Aaron Loup. He signed with the Angels and, in 27 innings, has an 0-2 record with a 4.33 ERA and -0.8 WAA.

March 17: The Mets are allowed one clunker, and the free agent signing of reliever Chasen Shreve qualifies. In 26 innings to date he’s 1-1 with a 6.58  ERA and a -0.7 WAA.

Atlanta Braves front office, +1.0

The winter soap opera story in Atlanta concerned the world champs’ efforts to re-sign free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman. Anthopoulos ultimately lost that battle, Freeman taking the money and running to Los Angeles. The Braves did acquire first baseman Matt Olson from Oakland to replace Freeman, and with a +0.5 WAA Olson has been a useful part, if a measurably less impactful one.

Since the end of the 2021 season, the Atlanta front office made 32 personnel decisions impacting major league performance in 2022. Only 13 of those decisions helped the Braves, 17 hurt and two were neutral.

Here are the five most impactful Braves moves this season.

Nov. 3: By letting Freeman go to free agency, the Braves gambled and eventually lost. In Los Angeles, Freeman has justified the bidding war over him. He’s off to a .303 start with nine homers and an .877 OPS for a club that probably wouldn’t be in first place without him. His impact measures +1.5 WAA, which is 1.5 that the Braves did not get.

March 14: The Olson trade with Oakland was also impactful, both with respect to Olson and also the principal player who went to Oakland. That was Cristian Pache, a touted rookie outfielder who bombed in his three-month exposure to the big league big time. Pache batted only .159 with a .427 OPS and -1.5 WAA before being dispatched last week to Triple A Las Vegas in the hope that he could rediscover his potential there.

March 16: Eddie Rosario was a midseason trade pickup in 2021 who helped restore the Braves’ outfield to championship caliber. Atlanta’s front office let him walk to free agency in November, but re-signed him in March, but to date 2022 has not gone nearly as well. Burdened by injuries, Rosario is hitting just .068 in 49 plate appearances, sticking the Braves with -1.3 WAA.

April 7: Rookie pitcher Spencer Strider made the opening day roster and has justified the team’s faith in him. Alternating between the rotation and bullpen, Strider is 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 17 appearances, six of them starts, and 54 innings. It adds up to a +0.9 WAA.

May 28: Michael Harris started the season at Triple-A, but was called up in late May and has filled a gap in Atlanta’s outfield. Since assuming regular center field duties, Harris is hitting .316 with four homers, four steals, and an .857 OPS. It adds up to a +0.9 WAA contribution. If he keeps that up, Harris could be a Rookie of the Year candidate by season’s end.

Philadelphia Phillies front office, -1.9

The Dombrowski-Fuld front office was nearly as aggressive this winter in trying to keep up with the Mets as was New York’s front office. The two headline moves were the free agent signings of Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber for a total of nine years and $179 million.

Overall, the Phillies made 32 personnel moves, of which 12 have been positive, 15 negative and five neutral. Here are  the five most impactful.

March 22: Castellanos signed for five years and $100 million, and has not yet delivered the offensive spike Phillies fans hoped for. He’s only hitting .245, although that comes with eight homers and 40 RBI. His .680 OPS is below par for anyone, much less a $100 million player, saddling the Phillies with -1.8 WAA. Stuck in the outfield due to Bryce Harper’s thumb injury, Castellanos has already amassed -12 defensive runs saved, a pitiful performance at a season’s halfway point.

Nov. 3: The Phillies front office granted veteran Brad Miller free agency. It was a smart moves. Miller signed with Texas, where he has hit only .213 in 168 plate appearances. That adds up to -1.4 WAA. Dombrowski and Fuld can be glad they’re not burdened with that.

April 7: Making the opening day roster, rookie Bryson Stott had a poor debut, prompting his demotion to Lehigh Valley. He was recalled May 7 and has stuck, but the offense hasn’t come around. Stott is hitting just. .185 in 171 plate appearances, good for a -1.0 WAA. If Stott’s performance doesn’t pick up, another demotion could be in the middle infielder’s future.

March 30: Filler players can have significant impacts in short  stays. In late March the front office acquired journeyman pitcher James Norwood from San Diego for a minor leaguer. Norwood only worked 17 innings before the Phillies unloaded him to Boston in June. In those 17 innings he had an 8.31 ERA and -0.8 WAA.

March 20: Schwarber signed for four years and $79 million, and has become the one big Phillies pickup to deliver value. Still a modest defensive liability, he’s offset that with a league-leading 23 home runs and an .851 OPS. That works out to +0.6 WAA.

Washington Nationals front office, -1.9

For a team in a rebuilding mode, Mike Rizzo’s front office was surprisingly conservative over the winter and spring. The Nationals have made only 21 personnel decisions involving a player who saw major league time during the first half of 2022. Only two of those moves involved players who have generated as little as one-half game of WAA. It has not helped the Nats that only five of those 19 moves have yielded positive value.

Part of the reason for the lack of activity is probably that Rizzo’s front office did so much at the 2021 trade deadline, including sending Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Los Angeles. The Nats were left with not much of value on their roster, at least beyond Juan Soto. In fact, only one player who finished 2021 with Washington has seen any 2022 playing time with any other team. That sole exception is pitcher Austin Voth, who was claimed on waivers by Baltimore in June.

Here are the sparse details on the only two moves of short-term substance made by the division’s last place team.

Dec. 12: The Nationals signed infielder Maikel Franco, late of the Braves, to a one-year, $700,000 contract. For that kind of money, the Nats didn’t expect much of Franco and he hasn’t provided it. Holding down third base, Franco is hitting .268, which doesn’t sound all that awful. But it’s one of those hollow .268s; he has just 10 walks, 59 strikeouts and a .640 OPS. It all works out to -1.5 WAA.

Nov. 30: Lucius Fox was a 24-year-old minor leaguer when the Nationals plucked him away from the Orioles on a waiver claim. Starting the season with the big club, Fox lasted one month before being optioned. He was called back in early June for a few days, but is now once again honing his craft at Triple-A Rochester. For the moment, Fox’s big league line shows 25 plate appearances during which he has hit .080 with no extra base hits, nine strikeouts, a .195 OPS and a -0.7 WAA.