Did the Boston Red Sox win or did the Chicago Cubs lose?

Jul 3, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Bobby Dalbec (left) and shortstop Christian Arroyo (39) after scoring against the Chicago Cubs during the eleventh inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 3, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Bobby Dalbec (left) and shortstop Christian Arroyo (39) after scoring against the Chicago Cubs during the eleventh inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Somebody needs to study whether games are won by good teams or lost by bad ones.

It’s an important question because if the latter is true, then all that is really required to contend for a pennant is to refrain from gifting games away.

It may be that all you need to do to win 85 or 90 games is not trip over your own feet.

Such research may be challenging. Although the art of statistical analysis of fielding — a prime suspect in the “games are lost, not win,” line of argument, has made great strides in recent years, it remains imprecise at best.

For now, those interested in the subject of how to not lose are largely reduced to anecdotal findings. For them, Sunday’s game between the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field is an object lesson.

The Red Sox won that game — if “won” is not too strong a word —  4-2 in 11 innings. But the outcome had less to do with what the Sox did to win it than what the Cubs did to lose it.

In fact, the Red Sox did very little to win it. They left 14 runners on base. The 2-3-4 hitters in their order went a combined 3-for-16 with three strikeouts and left six of those runners on base, three in scoring position. As a team, the Sox had just two hits in 19 tries with one or more runners in scoring position … and one of those hits was a routine infield pop fly that a trio of Cubs lost in the sun.

But at least the Red Sox did not beat themselves. They did not lose any popups in the sun, allowing two runs to score. The Cubs did, and those were the two runs that sent the game into extra innings as a 2-2 tie.

They also did not commit any fielding errors. Even discounting the lost pop fly, the Cubs did, and it was a fatal one.

After Bobby Dalbec began the top of the 11th at second base and Christian Arroyo walked, Cubs pitcher Rowan Wick struck out Jarren Duran and retired Rafael Devers on a harmless fly ball to center.

The next batter, Trevor Story, hit a one-hopper off the plate that Wick came in and fielded. He had time to get the runner at first, but sailed his throw over the head of David Bote and down the right field line. Dalbec and Arroyo both came around to score.

The loss dropped the Cubs to 32-47 on the season. They have that record for a reason, and the prevailing assumption is that the teams they are playing are better than they are. That may be true. But the inverse may be more important; the problem may be that the Cubs are worse than their opponents.

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In the standings, the Red Sox get credit for winning Sunday’s game. But in the real world, they did not win it. The Cubs lost it. The difference is subtle yet important.