AL Central: A mid-season front office assessment of the division
Cleveland Guardians front office, +1.6
Aside from their new name, the Guardians weren’t supposed to be especially interesting this season. The extent to which Antonetti and Chernoff deserve credit – it’s possible the existing talent base was simply under-valued – is open to debate.
But the numbers give the Cleveland front office at least some share of the credit.
The Guardians have only made a modest 21 personnel moves involving major league players since the end of the 2021 season. And of those, only eight have to date worked in favor of Cleveland; 12 were negative and one was neutral.
But the positive moves were more significant, resulting in a net improvement of 1.6 games that can be credited to those moves.
Here are the five most significant thus far.
April 14: That’s the date Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez signed a new seven-year, $141 million deal to remain in Cleveland through 2028. He has very much made good on that deal. Ramirez is hitting .292 with 16 home runs, a league-leading 63 RBIs and a .966 OPS that ranks with the game’s best. It works out to +2.5 WAA. Through July 2, that was the sixth best total in the entire American League.
April 7: Rookie outfielder Steven Kwan made the opening day roster, went 5-for-5 in his third start, and hasn’t looked back. Kwan is hitting .276 and has more bases on balls (29) than whiffs (21). The power numbers aren’t much, but Kwan’s arrival still works out to the benefit of his team by +0.9 WAA.
Nov. 5: Among players released to free agency was Nick Wittgren, a reliever coming off two good seasons and one unremarkable one. The Cardinals took a chance, signing Wittgren for one season in March. The evidence so far suggests the Guardians were right and the Cardinals were wrong; Wittgren has a 5.90 ERA in 29 appearances and on Sunday the Cardinals designated him for assignment.
April 8: The Guardians shipped Bradley Zimmer to Toronto in order to add pitcher Anthony Castro to their bullpen. Three months into the season, Castro has a 7.94 ERA in 10 appearances, explaining his four round trips between Cleveland and his current home at Triple A Columbus. When last seen, Castro had cost the Guardians -0.7 WAA.
March 25; Bryan Shaw fits like an old, comfy glove in the Guardians bullpen. He ought to; a mainstay from 2013 through 2017, Shaw returned for the 2021 season, was released and then re-signed in March. It may have been one family reunion too many. In 33 appearances, Shaw has a 3-1 record but a 4.91 ERA and he’s sporting a troubling 1.33 WHIP. It adds up to -0.5 WAA.
Minnesota Twins front office, +1.3
Last-place finishers in 2021 and dogged by most of the experts, the Twins front office adopted an aggressive approach in preparation for 2022. They have made 38 personnel changes, 16 adding value, 15 subtracting value and seven neutral to date. The net impact has been +1.3 WAA.
Several moves got headlines, none more so than the signing of shortstop Carlos Correa to a five-year contract with a series of opt outs effectively making it a one-year deal. They also acquired pitcher Sonny Gray and swung a trade with the Yankees that revamped both their infield and catching corps.
Here are the five most impactful thus far.
March 22: The Correa signing, for a potential $175 million, has been a blessing, although that may not be a good thing. Correa is hitting .298 with an .831 OPS, good for +1.3 WAA. If he keeps that production up, the guess is that Correa will exercise his opt-out and try his luck again on the open market … although forfeiting the sure $140 million through 2026 may be tough.
March 13: The Twins got Gray in a deal with the Reds that also involved an exchange of minor leaguers…in effect it was a salary dump on Cincinnati’s part. In Minnesota, Gray has contributed to the team’s first place standing. He’s 4-1 in 11 starts with a 2.47 ERA and a +1.2 WAA.
April 8: Duran, an imposing 6-5, 230 lb. 24-year-old rookie, made the opening day roster and has been a useful part of the team’s ascension to the division lead. In 27 appearances covering 35 innings he has a 2.06 ERA and has produced +0.9 WAA.
May 14: Maybe this is the year Devin Smeltzer finally sticks. The left-hander, who has had annual tryouts since 2019, was called up in mid-May, sent down a week later, then recalled four days later. His current major league tenure has lasted five weeks, during which he has contributed a 2.86 ERA (and four wins) in 50 innings of starting work. It adds up to +0.9 WAA.
May 2: Jose Miranda failed to make the team out of spring training, but has been up for all but a few days of the past two months. The tenure has been challenging. Alternating at first and third base, Miranda has a so-so .247 average and .700 OPS. But he’s striking out nearly 25 percent of the time and his -0.9 WAA won’t keep him in the majors.
Kansas City Royals front office, -2.5
Like the Twins, the new Moore-Picollo team plunged into its remake of the Royals with vigor. The swapping out has already involved 30 players with major league time this season, 11 of whom produced positive value for Kansas City.
The net impact, however, is -2.5 games of WAA.
The most impactful move, and really the only one of consequence, was the kind of decision that teams attempting to rebuild simply are not allowed to make. The Royals gave up on a young pitching product of their farm system who went on to find success in a new home. Good pitchers are simply too valuable to be given up on.
Here are the five most impactful moves.
Nov. 5: Jakob Junis was a 28-year-old product of Kansas City’s system who in five seasons had managed nothing more impressive than a 29-35 record and 4.82 ERA. So perhaps it’s understandable that the rebuilding Royals decided to cut their investment in him. Turns out they picked the wrong time. In March Junis signed with San Francisco, where he is enjoying a 4-1 record and 2.63 ERA in seven starts. His +1.5 WAA ranks third among Giants pitchers and is nearly double the best WAA of any current Royals pitcher.
May 2: The idea was to ease rookie callup M.J. Melendez into a cushiony role backing up All Star catcher Salvador Perez and taking some at bats as DH or in the outfield. Then Perez got hurt. Inheriting the regular job, Melendez has found it a challenge. His big league career is off to a .217 start with 46 strikeouts in 200 plate appearances, netting the team -0.9 WAA.
April 7: Rookie Collin Snider got his callup on opening day, the plan being to use him as bullpen depth. But in 27 appearances encompassing 21 innings, Snider could not consistently retire hitters. He did win four of six decisions, but the real story was wrapped up in his 7.71 ERA and 1.762 WHIP. On June 10, Snider and his -0.7 WAA were returned to Triple A Omaha for further work.
April 7: Following a brief 2021 introduction to the majors, outfielder Kyle Isbell made the team out of spring training. Optioned to Omaha two weeks later, he was recalled a week later and has so far stuck. But Isbell, too, has suffered adjustment pains. He’s batting just .222 with a .581 OPS as a fourth outfielder, and carrying a -0.7 WAA.
April 7: Like Snider, Gabe Speier was a system product who won a spring promotion to the big club. Before being returned to Omaha 10 days ago, Speier had actually performed relatively well, with a 2.33 ERA and 1.09 WAA in 19 innings of work. That worked out to a +0.6 WAA.
Chicago White Sox front office, -4.2
The Sox were the consensus pre-season pick to win the division, probably easily. Hahn came in for some of the credit when he bolstered bullpen with the pickups of Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly and acquiring outfielder A.J. Pollock in a trade. Few of those moves have worked out as planned.
Thus far the White Sox have made 22 moves impacting major league rosters, but the net impact is a disappointing -4.2 games. Only seven of those 22moves worked out in Chicago’s favor, while 11 have to date turned sour. Here are the five most impactful.
Nov. 3: Like the Royals, Chicago’s major goof involved the loss to free agency of a system pitching product. Coming off a 13-5, 2.37 2021 season, Carlos Rodon signed with the Giants, where he has enjoyed continued success. In 15 starts he has a 7-4 record and 2.62 ERA, adding up to +2.2 WAA. The White Sox certainly could have used him.
Dec. 1: Leury Garcia has been a utility fixture on the South Side since 2014, so it was really no surprise that a month after being released, he and the White Sox came to terms on a three-year, $16.5 million contract through 2024. The White Sox front office may be regretting that decision. Garcia, who is 31, is off to the worst start since 2014, batting just .206 with just two home runs and 14 RBIs. His .504 OPS and -1.2 WAA tell the story.
April 7: System pitching product Bennett Sousa made the Opening Day roster, and so far that’s been his career highlight. Before being returned to Triple A Charlotte in mid-June, Sousa was used 25 times for 20 innings, running up an 8.41 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. It added up to -1.1 WAA.
April 8: When the Sox signed free agent pitcher Johnny Cueto one day into the regular season, they had to wonder whether there was any point to doing so. There was. Cueto’s only 2-4 in Chicago, but he has a credible 3.33 ERA in eight starts and 54 innings, translating to +0.8 WAA.
April 7: Following a brief 2021 introduction, rookie third baseman Jake Burger made the club this spring. It has been an up-and-down experience, including a two-week stopover at Triple A Charlotte before being recalled in late May. With the White Sox, Burger is batting .250 with a solid .761 OPS and eight home runs. But Burger’s defense has needed work, and the sum only amounts to -0.6 WAA.
Detroit Tigers front office, -5.1
The Avila-led Tiger front office was aggressive over the winter, signing free agent Javier Baez to a long-term deal, and adding veteran pitchers Michael Pineda, Eduardo Rodriguez and Wily Peralta.
The impact of that churn has been less than hoped-for. Baez has produced modestly negative, almost insignificant, performance, and while Pineda has been good the sum total of Tiger front office actions still amounts to a division-worst -5.1 games. That encompasses 27 player moves, 12 of them positive, 12 negative and two neutral. Here are the five most impactful.
April 6. Since being drafted No. 1 a couple of years ago, stardom has been predicted for first baseman Spencer Torkelson. That may happen, but so far he’s had the predictable rocky rookie entry. In 70 games, Torkelson is off to a .194 start with 64 whiffs and a .586 OPS. His defensive work further contributes to a -2.1 WAA. Given his skill set, the Tigers are certain to give Torkelson more time to adapt to the major leagues.
April 7: Rookie Elvin Rodriguez made the opening day roster, the idea being to try him out as a rotation piece. He wasn’t ready. In four starts, Rodriguez was shelled to the tune of an 11.51 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. They optioned him out April 16, brought him back May 22, and sent him back to Toledo June 11. Rodriguez will hope for a second callup, but if it comes he’ll have to do better than the -1.3 WAA he has produced to date.
Nov. 3: The Tigers landed Tucker Barnhart in a deal with Cincinnati that cost them only a minor leaguer. Barnhart has not yet found his groove in Detroit. He’s hitting .213 with no homers and just seven RBIs , and his defensive work has been modestly negative. By the numbers, his impact equates to -1.1 WAA.
April 5: The deal with Tampa Bay was a straightforward done: backup infielder Isaac Paredes to the Rays for outfielder Austin Meadows. The modest benefit brought by Meadows has been more than offset by the loss of Paredes, who has found himself in St. Pete. He’s hitting .254 with 13 home runs, a .911 OPS and a 1.1 WAA for the Rays.
dark. Next. Where the AL Central teams fit into our latest MLB Power Rankings
Nov. 16: When Eduardo Rodriguez hit free agency in November coming off a 13-8 season with the Red Sox, the Tigers made a hard play for him. A five-year, $77 million offer got the deal signed. To date Rodriguez has been underwhelming. In eight starts he’s 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA, which is actually not far off his career level. It adds up to -0.7 WAA.