NL Central: A midseason 2022 front office assessment

The NL Central is a two-team race. But only one front office in the division has thus far boosted its team’s chances of winning the pennant.

Through the season’s first half, moves made by the front office of the Milwaukee Brewers have improved the team by 3.2 games. None of the other four NL Central front office operations are in positive figures.

The analysis that follows is an assessment of the impact each NL Central front office’s personnel decisions since November of 2021 have had on their team’s standing right now. It is based on the aggregate Wins Above Average of moves made in five areas:

• Players acquired by trade, purchase or waiver claim.
• Players signed as free agents or extended for more than one year.
• Minor league callups.
• Players lost via trade, waiver claim or sale.
• Players lost to free agency or released.

Wins Above Average is the preferred metric for this calculation because it is zero-based, meaning that it approximately reflects the number of games by which a front office either helped or hurt its team in the standings.

There was one change of significance to front office leadership in the division this season. That occurred in Chicago, where general manager Jed Hoyer was elevated to the position of president of baseball operations, and Carter Hawkins succeeded Hoyer as general manager.

Otherwise the roster of front office bosses remains unchanged from 2021:

• Cincinnati: Nick Krall, vice president and general manager.
• Milwaukee: David Stearns, president of baseball operations; Matt Arnold, senior vice president and general manager.
• Pittsburgh: Ben Cherington, general manager.
• St. Louis: John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations; Mike Girsch, senior vice president and general manager.

In order of effectiveness, here’s how all five NL Central front offices have performed thus far in 2022.

Also listed are the most statistically significant impacts by each front office.

Milwaukee Brewers front office, +3.2

In their second season as a team, Stearns and Arnold have improved the team’s talent base. Ironically, several of their most important moves involved players they dumped or let walk as opposed to those they acquired.

Since the conclusion of the 2021 season, the Brewers front office has made 29 personnel moves involving a major league player. Eleven of those moves have thus far worked out to Milwaukee’s benefit, 12 produced negative value, and the final six were neutral.

Here are the five most significant.

Dec. 1: The team’s one-year flirtation with defensive outfield whiz Jackie Bradley Jr. ended with Bradley’s inclusion in a four-player that landed Hunter Renfroe. Those have turned out to be the first and fourth most impactful moves of the season to date. In Boston, Bradley showed the same offensive problems he had previously displayed, batting .211 with one home run, a .572 OPA and a -1.3 WAA. Renfroe, meanwhile, has delivered punch. Beyond his .247 batting average are 13 home runs, a .789 OPS and a +0.8 OPS.

Nov. 5: When Avisail Garcia’s contract expired, the Brewers lost him to free agency, which turned out to be a good thing. Garcia signed a four-year deal in December with the Miami Marlins, but he is batting just .232 with a .602 OPS and a -1.3 WAA. Renfroe has been a more than competent substitute.

Nov. 3: Journeyman Daniel Norris landed in Milwaukee at last season’s trade deadline, pitched poorly and was allowed to escape to free agency. The Cubs signed Norris in March, but his line hasn’t improved. He’s 0-4 with a 7.24 ERA in 24 appearances, good for a -1.1 WAA.

March 13: The Brewers gave reliever Brad Boxberger his free agency at season’s end. But when no suitors lined up for him following the lockout, Stearns and Arnold re-signed him for two seasons. Serving as third ace of the pen, Boxberger has produced a 3-1 record and  1.99 ERA in 32 appearances, good for a +0.7 WAA.

Chicago Cubs front office, -0.9

In an effort to accelerate the team’s rebuild, Hoyer and Hawkins have speed-raced through 44 personnel moves since the end of the 2021 season, breaking almost 50-50 on the results. Eighteen of those moves have worked out, 21 have flopped, and five were neutral.

While the front office focus has understandably been on young talent, the most impactful moves have generally involved veterans brought in as filler pieces. In several cases those filler efforts have not yielded results. So  while rookies of the stripe of Christopher Morel, P.J. Higgins, Justin Steele, Michael Swarmer and Caleb Kilian have the fan base intrigued, those are not the names that dominate the roster of impact.

Here are the five most impactful moves.

March 19: In part because the Cubs front office was not persuaded that Nico Hoerner could handle the demands of a regular middle infield berth, the Cubs signed free agent Jonathan Villar. The move was a disaster. Before being released, Villar batted .222 with a .591 OPS, but more damning were his eight errors and .938 fielding average. Villar was carrying a -1.3 WAA when he was let go.

March 19: The Norris signing has been dealt with in the section regarding the Brewers, his former team. Suffice to say his -1.1 WAA for Chicago will have to improve quickly when he returns from the injured list or he will not be long for the North Side.

March 16: Re-establishing his worth during a 2021 stint with Tampa Bay, David Robertson became a free agent and was picked up by the Cubs to be their closer. The results haven’t been perfect, but his 11 saves and 1.95 ERA generally make Cubs fans smile. His +1.1 WAA is best on the team thus far.

Feb. 5: One youngster the Cubs gave up on was infielder Sergio Alcantara. Sold to Arizona in March, he was transferred to San Diego in a May waiver deal. But with a sub .200 average and -1.0 WAA in limited duty, the interim returns suggest the Cubs made the right call in dumping him.

April 7: Rookie pitcher Keegan Thompson made the club out of spring training, and although he has fought through some injuries there has been clear success. Ten starts in, he has a 7-3 record – not bad for a team playing .400 ball – and a 3.41 ERA. Thompson carried a +0.9 WAA into the July 4 holiday, trailing only Robertson in value to the staff.

Cincinnati Reds front office, -3.8

As the Reds seek the right rebuilding formula, GM Krall has shipped in or out 35 players since the end of the 2021 season. Unfortunately, only nine of those moves produced a positive impact; 25 have so far turned negative.

Part of the reason is that the Reds’ off-season image was shaped more by departures than arrivals. Nick Castellanos went to free agency, Sonny Gray, Eugenio Suarez and Amir Garrett were all traded, and Wade Miley was waived. Some of those losses are being missed in 2022.

Here are the five most impactful moves over the season’s first half.

Nov. 4: The Reds were never really considered in the running to re-sign Castellanos, so his move to Philadelphia hardly qualified as a surprise. And it’s just possible that Krall knew what he was doing. In Philly, Castellanos has been a multi-million dollar disappointment. His average is below .250, he hasn’t generated much power, and his defense is below average. At the moment he’s carrying a -1.9 WAA, a burden the Reds hardly needed.

March 14: A six-player trade with Seattle cost the Reds both Suarez and Winker, and brought them almost literally nothing. The Reds got two minor leaguers plus injured pitcher Justin Dunn and Jake Fraley, who has had 48 plate appearances. The focus here is on Winker, who’s off to a .226 start in Seattle with a -1.3 WAA.

April 7: Rookie reliever Reiver Sanmartin made the opening day roster, was optioned out early in May, then recalled in mid-June. His has been a rough introduction. In 13 appearances, of of them starts, he lasted just 25 innings, running up a 9.72 ERA and an 0-4 record.   That works out to a -1.2 WAA.

Nov. 29: In Aramis Garcia, the Reds thought they saw at least a partial answer to their catching situation. That’s why they signed Garcia, who had been released by the Athletics at season’s end, as a free agent. It hasn’t worked out yet. Garcia is off to a .221 start with the Reds, hitting one home run and driving in four runs. His .526 OPS works out to a -1.1 WAA.

April 7: Like Sanmartin, Alexis Diaz made the opening day roster as a bullpen option. Unlike Sanmartin, his stint has been a relatively trouble-free one.   In 27 appearances across 30 innings, Diaz has a 2.40 ERA and 2-0 record, allowing less than half a hit per inning. That works out to a +1.0 WAA, among the five best on Cincinnati’s roster.

St. Louis Cardinals front office, -4.3

The Cardinal front office presents an odd case. It has probably generated the majors’ best  rookie class. The 13 rookies introduced to the majors thus far include some legit prospects: Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, Brendan Donovan, and Zach Thomson among them.  As a group they’ve generated +1.8 WAA.

Yet overall the front office has had a bad season. Teams generally make their hay via the signing of available free agents, or by tying up their own products to extensions. The Mozeliak-Girsch team signed eight free agents – Albert Pujols and Steven Matz among them – and seven of the eight have generated negative value to the tune of -5.3 WAA.

Overall the Cards made 35 moves involving major leaguers, 19 of them working out positively. But the negatives have been more negative than the positives have been positive.

Here are the five most impactful.

April 25: Donovan was called up to plug a recurring mid-infield gap, and he’s more than done that. His .295 average and .816 OPS translate to a +1.3 WAA. As previously noted, the rookie class is strong, but Donovan is so far their value leader.

April 7: Andre Pallante did make the opening day roster, working both as an occasional starter and bullpen filler. In 55 innings through July 3 he was working on a 2.10 ERA,.131 WHIP and 1.1 WAA. A note: Those numbers do not reflect the beating Pallante took Tuesday at the hands of the Braves, which re-enforced the reality that all these figures reflect merely half a season and thus are subject to change.

Nov. 8: Five days after reliever T.J. McFarland opted for free agency, the Cardinals re-signed him for $2.5 million. Non-elite relievers are bargain basement items in the majors, and it almost never makes sense to invest heavily in them. McFarland is a classic illustration: In 24 games he’s hauling around a career-worst 7.43 ERA and -1.1 WAA.

March 18: The Cardinals signed free agent outfielder Corey Dickerson, a mid-30s veteran of nine seasons with a half dozen teams. In 38 games, Dickerson produced next-to-nothing: two homers, 11 RBIs, a .194 average and a .531 OPS. He’s currently on an injury rehab in Memphis, but if and when Dickerson returns the results will have to be an upgrade on his -0.9 WAA if he wants to hold a roster spot on a contender.

March 28: The signing of the legendary Albert Pujols was a feel-good story in St. Louis. Statistically it has, however, hurt the club’s cause. The 42-year-old Pujols is batting .189 with just four homers and a .601 OPS that is 300 points below his career average. The Cardinals know this; they’ve given Pujols just 48 plate appearances since June 1,and he’s hitting just .136. His WAA sits at -0.8