NL West front offices: A midseason report for 2022

Just as their teams have done, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres front office staffs have taken turns dominating the NL West so far in 2022.

With a revamped leadership structure, the Dodger front office has put together the division’s best showing to date. By contrast, the front office of last season’s divisional champions, the San Francisco Giants, has fallen on hard times mirroring those of the team itself.

The analysis that follows is an assessment of the impact each NL West front office’s personnel decisions since November of 2021 have had on their team’s standing right now. It is based on the aggregate Wins Above Average of moves made in five areas:

• Players acquired by trade, purchase or waiver claim.
• Players signed as free agents or extended for more than one year.
• Minor league callups.
• Players lost via trade, waiver claim or sale.
• Players lost to free agency or released.

Wins Above Average is the preferred metric for this calculation because it is zero-based, meaning that it approximately reflects  the number of games by which a front office either helped or hurt its team in the standings. All data is valid as of the end of play July 7.

There was one change of significance to front office leadership in the division this season. That occurred in Los Angeles, where president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman ceded general manager responsibilities to Brandon Gomes, who was promoted in his sixth season with the organization.

The division’s four other front office teams remained in place. Those teams are headed by:

• Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Hazen, executive vice president and general manager.
• Colorado Rockies: Bill Schmidt, senior vice president and general manager.
• San Diego Padres: A.J. Preller, president of baseball operations and general manager.
• San Francisco Giants: Farhan Zaidi, president of baseball operations; Scott Harris, general manager.

In order of effectiveness, here’s how all five NL West front offices have performed thus far in 2022. Also listed are the most significant moves by each front office.

Los Angeles Dodgers front office, +2.9 WAA

Gomes, a former relief pitcher, has seemed to work seamlessly with Friedman. The tandem pulled off the winter’s biggest coup, signing Freddie Freeman away from Atlanta. They also got the biggest steal, pitcher Tyler Anderson.

Overall, Friedman-Gomes made only 20 moves impacting major league personnel in 2022, one of those being the loss of free agent shortstop Corey Seager to Texas. Seager’s only moderately strong start in Texas, coupled with the presence of Trea Turner, has mitigated the impact of that loss. Here are the five most impactful moves since the end of 2021.

March 18: If Friedman and Gomes expected Tyler Anderson to deliver a 9-1 record in 14 starts, they surely were the only ones. Prior to 2022, Anderson had been a journeyman in four cities with a 29-38 record and ERA consistently around 4.50. With injuries to Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Andrew Heaney, Anderson’s emergence has been central to the Dodgers’ ability to hold on to the division lead. He’s produced a +1.4 WAA through July 7.

March 18: One reason the Anderson signing went unnoticed is because that was also the day the Dodgers spirited Freeman away from Atlanta. That may make March 18 the single most important day for any MLB team through the season’s first half. Freeman has responded with 10 homers, a solid.297 average, an .857 OPS and a +1.3 WAA.

April 1: The Dodgers shipped A.J. Pollock, a solid outfield piece, to the White Sox in exchange for closer Craig Kimbrel. The Kimbrel pickup has been only ordinary; he has 14 saves but a 4.82 ERA and a negative WAA. But Pollock’s departure removed a declining asset, at least so far. In Chicago, he’s hit just .239 with no power and a .633 OPS, good for a -0.8 WAA.

March 28: Matt Beaty was a player without a position when the Dodgers shipped him to San Diego for a minor leaguer. Given the Padres’ role as prime challengers for division supremacy, the trade involved some risk. To date, however, it has actually helped Los Angeles. Beset all season by injuries, Beaty has made two trips to the IL while hitting just .108 and producing a -0.7 WAA.

March 23: March was a moving month for the Dodgers; all five of their biggest transactions occurred within a two-week period following the lockout’s end. The signing of Hanser Alberto as a free agent infield backup was the only one of the five that has not so far worked out in the Dodgers’ favor. He’s hitting just .224 with a  .576 OPS and a -0.6 WAA.

San Diego Padres front office, +1.3 WAA

Preller’s hopes of passing the Dodgers got a crushing blow just as spring camp opened when it was announced that star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. had broken his thumb during the lockout. Tatis still hasn’t returned. Fortunately, backup Ha-Seong Kim has stepped in to perform decently at shortstop in the absence of Tatis, although as a roster holdover Kim’s accomplishments do not pad Preller’s interim score.

Preller had 36 moves since the end of 2021 that involved a 2022 major leaguer, the breakdown being 17 positive, 16 negative and three neutral. Only one of those moves, however, has had statistical consequence.

Here are the five most impactful:

Nov. 27: Assuming that they were set up the middle with Tatis and Jake Cronenworth, the Padres traded surplus middle infielder Adam Frazier to Seattle for a minor leaguer and a fringe player. It’s been a rough go in the Northwest for Frazier, who’s off to a .223 start with a .580 OPS and a negative defensive profile. It adds up to a -1.7 WAA.

Dec. 1: The Padres purchased catcher Jorge Alfaro from Miami as part of the latter club’s budget reduction plan. Alfaro’s been a +0.8 benefit to the Padres, hitting .270 with a solid .752 OPS and mid-pack defensive numbers.

Nov. 5: The Padres allowed closer Mark Melancon to go to free agency, only to lose him less than a month later to the division rival Diamondbacks. So far, the loss has been a blessing in disguise. Melancon is 3-7 in 29 innings with Arizona, getting whacked for a 5.22 ERA and a -0.8 WAA. The Padres are better off with new closer Taylor Rogers.

April 7: The Padres got Taylor Rogers in a five-player swap with the Twins that also cost them pitcher Emilio Pagan. Minnesota has been a surprise team in the AL Central, but not because of anything Pagan has done. In 31 relief appearances encompassing 30 innings he has a 5.16 ERA and a -0.8 WAA.

March 28: The details of the acquisition of Matt Beaty having already been discussed with respect to the Dodgers, there is no reason — aside possibly from embarrassing the Padres — to revisit them here.

San Francisco Giants front office, -2.1

The Zaidi-Harris personnel decisions since the end of the 2021 season have focused on pitchers, and especially veteran pitchers. There have been notable successes and failures.

Overall the Giants have made 37 such moves, and while the negatives (21) far outnumber the positives (11), the value of the positives nearly balance out the more abundant negatives. All five of the Giants’ biggest moves involved arms. Here are the details.

March 14: One of the Giants’ first moves when the lockout ended was to pluck Carlos Rodon off the free agent list. Thus far, anyway, that decision has been a ten-strike. In 16 starts, Rodon has a 7-5 record, a 2.87 ERA, and he has yielded a +2.0 WAA to his new team. That’s genuine value.

March 14: Rodon has been the most impactful addition to the Giants’ rotation, but not the only significant one.  When the lockout ended, the Giants signed former Royals starter Jakob Junis to a bargain  one-year, $1.75 million contract. His up-and-down first half has included two trips to Triple A Sacramento and one stint on the injury list. But when healthy Junis has produced a 4-1 record and 2.63 ERA in seven starts, good for a +1.5 WAA. He’s now doing rehab work, so his return could be close.

Oct. 15: The release of pitcher Jose Quintana was no surprise. Winless in five appearances since being  acquired down the stretch from the Angels, Quintana hadn’t been a front-line regular in three years. But signed by Pittsburgh, Quintana has found something. His 3.33 ERA in 16 starts for the Pirates translates to +1.2 WAA. The Giants could have used that.

Aug. 13: Like Jose Quintana, Aaron Sanchez was a past-his-time starter whose release late in 2021 made perfect sense. Unlike Quintana, Sanchez hasn’t found a second wind. Signed by the Nationals in March,  he produced an 8.33 ERA in seven starts and -1.1 WAA. By mid-May, even the last-place Nats had had enough; they released Sanchez.

Nov. 5: Johnny Cueto was also released following a decent 2021 comeback season with a 7-7 record and 4.08 ERA. Signed by the White Sox for 2022, Cueto started the season at Triple-A Charlotte, tasked with proving he still had value. He proved it, was called up in May, and has a 3.30 ERA in nine starts with a +1.0 WAA. The Giants could have used Cueto’s performance.

Colorado Rockies front office, -3.2 WAA

The big offseason news around Denver concerned who the Rockies lost, not who they got. They lost Trevor Story, who signed with the Red Sox and took a major piece of Colorado’s offense with him.

All told, Schmidt has made 23 personnel moves, nine of which have worked out in Colorado’s favor. But the overall impact has been negative and a contributing factor to the team fighting Arizona for possession of the division cellar.

Here are the five most impactful to date.

March 24: Colorado’s two most impactful moves came in tandem, and both have worked out negatively for the receiving team. The March trade sent outfielder Raimel Tapia and a minor leaguer to Toronto to Randal Grichuk and cash. Tapia has been a no-power disappointment in Toronto, his .262 batting average diminished by only three home runs, only nine walks and a resulting .654 OPS. That works out to -1.5 WAA. Grichuk isn’t much, if any, better: a .248 average, a .676 WAA and a -1.3 WAA for the Rockies. In Coors Field, one expects better.

Nov. 10: Lost to free agency one week earlier, Jhoulys Chacin re-upped for one year at $1.25 million. Used exclusively in relief, Chacin has made 28 appearances. That’s the good part. The bad part is a 6.81 ERA and -1.2 WAA.

Nov. 3: The loss of Story to free agency was widely forecast given his value on the open market. He signed in March with Boston, where he has produced a +1.1 WAA for the Red Sox. The reasons: a poor .224 batting average offset by 15 homers, 55 RBI, and a .727 OPS.

March 16: Chad Kuhl lingered on the open market until mid-March when the Rockies offered a one-year, $3 million deal. It has paid off. Kuhl’s 4.02 ERA is good by Coors standards, he’s 6-5 in 16 starts and his +1.1 WAA is best on the Colorado staff.