Baltimore Orioles: Evaluating the return in the Trey Mancini trade

On Monday, the Baltimore Orioles traded their longest-tenured player, and clubhouse leader, Trey Mancini, to the Houston Astros as part of a three-team trade also involving the Tampa Bay Rays. The full trade return is as follows:

Focusing on the Baltimore Orioles‘ return from the trade, they received right-hander Seth Johnson, who was Tampa’s fourth-ranked prospect, and was the the 89th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, as well as right-hander Chayce McDermott, who was Houston’s 11th-ranked prospect per FanGraphs. Following FanGraphs updated prospect rankings, Johnson will fall in as the Orioles’ 12th-ranked prospect, falling in the rankings a lot due to requiring Tommy John surgery soon. As for McDermott, he will fall in as the Orioles’ 24th-ranked prospect.

What do these two prospects acquired in the trade for Trey Mancini mean for the Baltimore Orioles?

Beginning with the obvious, they bolster the Orioles’ already strong farm system, which was ranked as MLB’s best. Johnson is now the Orioles’ third-ranked pitching prospect within the organization, falling behind only Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall, and McDermott will slot in as the seventh-ranked pitching prospect in the Orioles farm system.

Johnson will likely not pitch again until at least 2024 (according to some reports, he has a torn UCL, but has yet to undergo Tommy John surgery). McDermott has an ETA to the big leagues of 2025, which will make him 26 years old if that ETA stays true. Johnson had an ETA of 2023 before tearing his UCL.

Overall, this is another move by Mike Elias looking towards the future, and bolstering a farm system that is already MLB’s best. The trade deadline doesn’t pass until 6 p.m. (Eastern) on Tuesday, meaning we still have a bit of time to see more changes for the Orioles.