The remarkable comeback of Justin Verlander

Entering Wednesday’s start, Justin Verlander is on pace for about 190 to 195 innings this season. For a guy that’s tossed 200+ innings in 12 seasons, that mark isn’t that impressive but, as a sign of the times, he’s still top-10 in the American League.

The 200 inning pitcher is nearing extinction and, outside of Sandy Alcantara, it’s unlikely anyone will cross the 220 inning threshold this year let alone come close to the 238 innings Verlander averaged from 2009 to 2012. Should he reach 190 innings this season, he’ll be one of 15 to 20 pitchers to reach that mark.

There’s a short list of pitchers that have thrown at least 130 innings and had an ERA under 2.00 at 39 or older. You’ve likely heard of most of them, if not all: Cy Young, Eddie Plank, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Roger Clemens. If Verlander reaches the 145-inning mark and his ERA remains below 2, he would be in a club with just Young and Clemens.

The game is way different now than when  Young was playing and his 1.99 ERA in 1907 was just 29% above league average based on ERA+. Still an impressive feat in 343.1 innings but hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison.

If Justin Verlander keeps it up for the rest of the season, he and Clemens would be the only two starters in the last century to pitch a full season with an ERA under 2. Clemens miraculously (or mysteriously…) did it when he was 42 during his final year with the Houston Astros.