MLB: Breaking down the American League Wild Card race

Heading into play on Saturday, the Wild Card race in the American League is looking really tight with about 50 games left in the season. Five MLB teams are within 2.5 games of each other, with the Chicago White Sox currently 2.5 games back from a spot. It should be fun to watch these teams duke it out for the only three Wild Card spots.

Will the Seattle Mariners see their first MLB postseason since 2001?

The Mariners currently sit atop the Wild Card standings with a two-game advantage. Per FanGraphs, the Mariners bullpen has a league-leading ERA (2.52) and WAR (2.2) since July 1. That group is headlined by flamethrower Andres Munoz who sports a 2.72 ERA and a 2.02 xFIP.

Whenever you think about the Mariners, though, you have to think about Julio Rodriguez. He is back and healthy now and you have to figure that means the Mariners will make their first playoffs since 2001.

Toronto Blue Jays are underperforming but still in position

Many predicted the Blue Jays to win the AL East at the beginning of the season, but the Yankees have surprised most with a 10-game lead currently. When you look at the numbers that FanGraphs provides, it’s easy to see that the Jays lineup is vastly underperforming. Here are the top hitters on the Jays, and how much lower their wRC+ is from last year: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-26), Bo Bichette (-18), George Springer (-18), Teoscar Hernandez (-6). Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have been outstanding but, outside of them, the rotation leaves a lot to be desired.

Speaking of desiring a lot more, Jose Berrios has been one of the worst qualified starting pitchers in the league after signing a seven-year, $131 million deal.

Everyone is waiting for this Jays team to get hot and live up to expectations.

The 2022 Cinderella Story — the Baltimore Orioles

The surprise of this year has to be the Baltimore Orioles. They are years ahead of schedule in their rise to prominence and, if the season ended today, they would be in the playoffs.

Looking at the overall season stats, it’s hard to figure out how the Orioles are in playoff position. But if you use the data provided by FanGraphs starting at June 1, when they made their run, it paints a clearer picture. Since June 1, they rank ninth in wRC+, 11th in OPS, ninth in ERA, and sixth in pitching WAR. They have more of a quantity over quality approach in their lineup, but their success directly aligns with when Adley Rutschman began to turn it on. Since June 1, Rutschman has a 146 wRC+, a .861 OPS, and 2.8 WAR, all leading the team in that span. Legend has it that he also tackled Christian McCaffrey in college football.

The Orioles are a great story, but if the rotation can hold up, I could see them being a playoff team.

Who is starting Game 1 of a playoff series for the Minnesota Twins?

The Minnesota Twins are 1.5 games back from the Cleveland Guardians for first in the AL Central, and that may prove to be their best path to the playoffs. They have gotten strong performances this year from Byron Buxton (when healthy), Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, and Jose Miranda.

The starting pitching is where it gets dicey. Joe Ryan looked like the surefire ace for this squad until July hit. He sports a 5.51 ERA and a 4.76 FIP since July 1. At this point, there is nobody they should feel comfortable with starting in the playoffs, even after trading for Tyler Mahle.

The good news is that they’ve got some bullpen arms they can rely on. They added 2022 All-Star Jorge Lopez to a bullpen that already featured Jhoan Duran, Jharel Cotton, and Trevor Megill. The Twins will undoubtedly need more of their starting pitching though if they want to make the playoffs.

Can the AL East send four teams to the playoffs?

The Tampa Bay Rays always seem to just figure it out. They have eight players with 200 or more plate appearances and an above average wRC+ (over 100). Their starting pitching staff has the fifth-best ERA in baseball with a 3.52, but that is in large part due to them not getting stretched out very far. Their relievers are able to handle the load though as they sport a 3.44 ERA ranking ninth. It’s largely a group effort out of this bullpen, but they have a lot of arms that can get it done. As usual they platoon well, and they use their entire pitching staff to their advantage.

The struggle for the Rays will be their remaining schedule. They have nine more games against both the Yankees and the Blue Jays. It will allow them to gain ground, but can also have them losing ground.