MLB’s best pitches (and the best hitters against them)

There’s no better feeling than when your guy is on the MLB mound and he’s got one of the nastiest pitches in baseball. Everyone in the stadium knows it’s coming and everyone knows there’s not a thing the hitter can do about it.

On the flipside, there’s no worse feeling than when one of the best hitters in the league steps up to the plate and you’re just hoping your guy doesn’t throw thatpitch because he’s going to absolutely crush it.

Thanks to Statcast’s Pitch Arsenal Stats leaderboard, we can quantify which pitchers have the best and most effective pitches in the league (and which hitters are the best against those pitches as well).

For this article we’ll use Run Value from Statcast. Run Value is defined as “the run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count.” (A more in-depth description of Run Value can be read here)

So these pitches have not only been nasty, but they’ve been impactful too.

Here are the best MLB pitchers and hitters against each type of pitch this year.

A thank you in advance to Rob Friedman (AKA Pitching Ninja on Twitter) for tweeting a plethora of nasty pitches for you to ooh and aah at in this article.

Four Seam Fastball: Justin Verlander & Aaron Judge

Verlander’s 4-seamer comes in with a Run Value of -21. At that number, it ranks as the second-best pitch overall in baseball. That’s thanks to a pitch usage of 50.6% which is driving up its value here. It’s still coming in with a velocity in the mid to upper 90s. And while it’s not always his putaway pitch, it’s the one he clearly trusts the most to get outs with.

Aaron Judge is the best hitter against 4-seamers, coming in with a Run Value of 22. Pitchers throw it to him 26% of the time, and honestly they should consider throwing it less. He’s hitting it for a .543 wOBA, easily the best number he has against any pitch this year.

Verlander has faced Judge in one game this year and Judge has seen his 4-seamer twice. Both resulted in outs (one an easy popout foul, the other a lineout to Jose Altuve).

Slider: Dylan Cease & Aaron Judge

Another appearance for Aaron Judge! But let’s talk about Dylan Cease first. Cease’s slider ranks as the best pitch in the majors with a Run Value of -31, eclipsing Verlander’s 4-seamer by 10. The slider is Cease’s bread and butter, throwing it 42.5% and allowing just a .121 batting average against (.172 wOBA). It’s also his best putaway pitch, using it as a putaway pitch over 30% of the time. It’s resulted in 110 of his 182 strikeouts and has a 47.3% whiff rate.

Judge is just as good against sliders as he is 4-seamers, coming in with a Run Value of 21. Given that a fastball/slider combo is one of the more popular combos for pitchers in today’s game, it’s not a bad thing at all for Judge to be a gargantuan for both these pitches. He’s hitting it for a .449 wOBA, which is a crazy number (and even crazier to think it’s nearly 100 points worse than his wOBA against 4 seamers).

Cease and Judge faced off in May this year and while the Yankees got the best of him, Judge went 0-2 with a walk and 2 Ks vs Cease (both Ks on fastballs);

Curveball: Adam Wainwright & Austin Riley

We head to the National League here as Adam Wainwright continues to dominate with his curveball with a Run Value of -12. It’s his most common pitch at 30.8% and is responsible for 51 of his 126 Ks. His whiff rate of 27.2% is easily the best of his pitch arsenal.

The best hitter vs curveballs is Atlanta’s Austin Riley. Coming in with a Run Value of 14 on curves. This is almost more impressive as he only sees curveballs 8.1% of the time. When he sees them, though, he crushes them for a .556 wOBA, higher than Judge against 4-seamers. It’s the pitch he’s got the highest whiff rate against (38.4%) but when he gets a hold of it he reallygets it.

Wainwright and Riley have not faced off against each other this season.

Changeup: Tyler Anderson & Andres Gimenez

With a Run Value of -15, Tyler Anderson edges out a couple other dominant changeups from pitchers you more than likely expected to show up here (Sandy Alcantara and Shane McClanahan). I guess that’s the true changeup here, am I right? (Don’t boo too loudly)

It’s his second most used pitch at 32.7% but it gets the best results of his arsenal, only allowing a .160 batting average and a .190 wOBA. It’s the pitch he gets the most strikeouts on and is his calling card in a surprising 2022 campaign for the Dodgers.

On the flipside, Andres Gimenez makes pitchers pay when they throw their changeup. The Guardians’ lefty punishes it for a .502 wOBA, amounting to a Run Value of 12. That’s a batting average of .379 with a slugging percentage of .741 this season. In what’s easily Gimenez’s best offensive year of his career, his performance against the changeup is driving it.

Anderson and Gimenez have not faced off against each other this season.

Sinker: Dillon Tate & Will Smith

Dillon Tate’s taken a big leap forward from his 2021 season and is helping the Orioles’ bullpen in a surprising playoff push with his 148 ERA+. His sinker’s a huge reason for that, limiting hitters to a .240 wOBA on a .236 batting average with a -16 run value. If hitters get to it then they’re doing next to nothing with it. A trusty arm out of the O’s pen and a pretty nice K-spin also!

Will Smith, on the other hand, crushes sinkers. He sees them 17.4% of the time and crushes them for a .509 wOBA and a Run Value of 16. It’s easily the worst pitch a pitcher can throw to him (next best pitch is a changeup with a Run Value of 6).

Dillon Tate and Will Smith have not faced each other this season. Potential World Series matchup? We shall see.

Split Finger: Tony Gonsolin & Ryan McMahon

A sneaky Cy Young candidate, Tony Gonsolin throws the league’s best splitter with a Run Value of -15. Set up by his 4-seamer, Gonsolin’s split finger represents nearly half of his 116 Ks and comes with a 31.3% whiff rate. At just a .150 wOBA, it’s Gonsolin’s best pitch and hitters can’t do anything with it.

McMahon comes in as the league’s best hitter against split fingers with a Run Value of 4. He sees it only 2.4% of the time but the Rockies’ third baseman has tagged it for a .613 wOBA. Alex Cobb learned of McMahon’s strength against the splitter the hard way as he gave up three hits to McMahon on August 20 with each hit coming off of a splitter.

Gonsolin and McMahon have faced each other in two games this year with McMahon going 2-4 against him (2-for-2 on April 9, 0-for-2 on July 31). Neither of McMahon’s hits came via the splitter but Gonsolin did get him to hit into a double-play off his splitter in their July meeting.