Examining the AL MVP race: Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani

Last year, Shohei Ohtani bested an elite hitter in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win his first American League MVP award. It solidified Ohtani as superstar in this league, and made his audience even larger. This year, Ohtani faces an even tougher challenge as Aaron Judge is currently on pace to come extremely close to breaking the “non-steroid” single-season home run record currently owned by Roger Maris at 61.

Who do you think will hoist the American League MVP trophy: Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani?

Another Yankee chases the single-season home run record

61 years ago, in 1961, Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle had an epic home run race to beat Babe Ruth’s single-season home run record. After much scrutiny, Maris ended up breaking the record with 61 home runs. Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds all shattered that record during the steroid era, but the 61 home runs is widely respected as the active “non-asterisk” record. Now, another member of the New York Yankees, Judge currently sits at 51 home runs with 30 games left.

However, Judge has provided a lot more than home runs for the Yankees this year. Per FanGraphs, Judge currently owns a 1.064 OPS, a 196 wRC+ (96% better than your average hitter), and an 8.3 WAR. He ranks first in all of those categories, and he is the largest and most glaring reason the Yankees are sitting in first place in the East.

Although he has a very strong throwing arm, his defensive metrics are good, but not great. This holds significance because it is an area where he can gain an edge on Ohtani.

Can the dual threat go back to back? 

Just in case you haven’t heard, Ohtani pitches and hits … and he does them both really well. The sheer idea of doing both of those at a major league level hasn’t been revisited since the Babe himself. Last year, Ohtani won the MVP on the strength of his bat. This year, the bat has caught fire of late, but if he wins, it will be his pitching that makes the difference.

He currently ranks seventh in WAR for all pitchers with 4.0, 12th in ERA with a 2.67, and fifth in FIP with 2.59 (minimum 120 innings pitched). He is the ace of an absolutely abysmal Angels team, and has really taken his pitching to another level this season.

Per Baseball Savant, Ohtani currently ranks in the 94th Percentile for whiff %, and 85th percentile in fastball velocity. He has thrown his slider more than any other pitch this season, and it currently has a .179 batting average against it. His splitter remains ridiculously good, with a .116 batting average against.

How about Ohtani the hitter? He owns a 145 wRC+, a .885 OPS, and 30 home runs. His total WAR between hitting and pitching is 7.2 (3.2 WAR as a batter). His wRC+ ranks 13th in all of MLB, and his OPS ranks 11th. His Baseball Savant hitting page is a wonderful site. He ranks in the 94th percentile for average exit velocity, and in the 98th percentile for both xSLG and Barrel %.

Essentially, Ohtani is top 15 in all of MLB in both hitting and pitching. How do you put a value on getting that production from one roster spot?

Does team success matter? 

In my opinion, the value of an individual player is not determined by their teams success. Judge clearly is surrounded by better players, coaches, and a front office. If anything, I applaud Ohtani’s ability to continue to produce as the Angels fall further and further from playoff contention.

The argument that the Yankees success should earn Judge the award is invalid in my opinion. The only way to determine either of their value is to image where their respective team would be without them. In this case, the Yankess would arguably not be in the playoff picture, and the Angels could be in line for the first overall draft pick next year.

What is the verdict?

If the season ended today, Judge is undoubtedly the MVP. With Ohtani being a dual threat, the best metric to rely on is WAR, and Judge currently has 1.1 more WAR than Ohtani’s combined WAR. However, Ohtani has caught fire lately with the bat, and has gained on Judge.

I should also state, if Judge ties or breaks Maris’ home run record, he will be the AL MVP. But, if Judge falls short, and Ohtani tightens the WAR lead, I think it will be a really close vote.

Long story short, Judge is the odds-on favorite, but the last 30 days could easily shift the American League MVP race. If Judge’s bat goes the slightest bit cold, and Ohtani continues dominating both as a hitter and pitcher, we may have an upset on our hands.