Phillies chances of avoiding collapse soar…by two points

As the Philadelphia Phillies head into San Francisco for a series with the Giants beginning Sept. 2, it may be time to consider how the team is likely to fare as the season is ending, even though we just did this a mere nine days ago.

There are two reasons to do this, one a non-baseball matter. The local professional football team is about to begin play, and hopes are particularly high for the rebuilt Eagles. For those outside the Philadelphia area, this means all fan attention for many will now shift entirely.

The Phillies’ only hope for stopping or slowing this change (read, selling a lot of tickets for September) was to build a lead in the playoff slot it was hoped they would hold at this point. And this brings us to what has changed in that regard recently as they hold precariously the second Wild Card.

What have the last ten days said about the Philadelphia Phillies and their chances of holding a playoff slot?

Back on Aug. 24, when we first examined the notion of a Phillies collapse in September, the team was in the middle of a four-game sweep of the Reds, which was followed by two straight wins over the Pirates. This was good. This Phillies team should beat the current Redlegs and Bucs.

That, however, brings us to the second reason to re-examine the Phils’ collapse potential so soon after a first assessment.

What happened next was disconcerting in the extreme for Philadelphia partisans. First, Pittsburgh’s Roansy Contreras, a pitcher some suggested could have been useful to the Phillies, shut them out. In the same game the guy the team traded for instead, Noah Syndergaard, gave up five runs to the Bucs, who were then a woeful 31 games under .500.

Things would surely look up in Arizona, though, right? Here was another team the Phillies should clobber this season. Instead, the Diamondbacks bombed the Phillies “back to the Stone Age,” to borrow a Vietnam Era phrase – by 13-7 and 12-3. The first loss in Phoenix involved blowing a 7-0 lead.

Here comes that collapse, some Phillies fans surely thought at that point.

But, no, the next evening the team played to that guy who accused me on Twitter of inhabiting “Negadelphia” after the Aug. 24 collapse piece. They carpet bombed the Snakes themselves, 18-2. Every starter in the lineup had at least two hits, including speedster Brandon Marsh, a .235 hitter, who had three.

This is what has made the Phillies such a fascinating team this season. Two big steps backwards, and a huge step forward – or vice versa. Whatever.

Moreover, in the third Arizona game, the team once expected to crush other teams with long balls, hit no home runs.

In their final 31 games, the Philadelphia Phillies will face winning teams 12 times and losing teams 19 times. The winning teams (Atlanta, Toronto, and Houston) are an average nine games over .500. The losing teams are an average 6.2 games under .500.

During Bryce Harper’s injury absence, the Phillies held themselves together admirably, but as Philly talk radio commentator Jon Ritchie recently suggested, the team may have breathed too large a sigh of relief when Harper returned to the dugout.

Ritchie, a former Eagles running back, turned shortly after this remark to further discussion of the Eagles.

And the chances of the Philadelphia Phillies holding onto their playoff slot have seemingly risen from 50-50 about ten days ago to 52-48 – or to some other figure just outside the ballpark of 50-50 buying a five-dollar knockoff hat.