Did the Mets really prove they're a threat to the Dodgers?

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After a 5-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday, the New York Mets got a series win after taking two of three games from the Dodgers at Citi Field. The Mets are now 85-48 with a three game lead over Atlanta in the NL East and are the second-best team (record-wise) in the National League … behind Los Angeles. Spirits are flying high, but was this series enough to prove that they’re a legit threat to the Dodgers in the postseason?

It’s a compelling though. They are 4-3 against L.A. in the regular season and seemingly have all the pieces you need to compete in the playoffs:

An upper echelon pitching staff with two aces
A well-rounded lineup
A really solid bullpen

All of those factors will keep them in games and, against most teams, would make them solid favorites.

But the Los Angeles Dodgers possess something else that will provide a plethora of problems for the New York Mets in the postseason: Left-handed starters.

The Mets have one weakness to their game and it’s the drop-off in offensive production they see when a lefty is on the mound. They have a season-long wRC+ of 112, tying them for fifth in the majors with the Houston Astros. They have a 116 wRC+ against righties, second in the majors behind only the Dodgers. Against lefties that wRC+ drops to 103, making them the 16th-best team against lefties behind and barely edging out teams like the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies. They’ve actually got a solid record against lefties overall (27-19 vs. LHP), but much of that’s more of a compliment to their own pitching staff keeping them in games rather than out-slugging their opponents on a nightly basis.

The Dodgers don’t lack left-handed starters at all. Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney will all be heavily featured against the Mets should these two teams end up facing each other in the postseason. As of now, the Dodgers would open up vs the winner of 4-5 series (Atlanta vs. Philadelphia) and the Mets would get the winner of the 3-6 series (St. Louis vs. San Diego), so for all intents and purposes these two would only meet in the NLCS unless the Mets slip and let the Braves win the NL East (putting them in the matchup vs Philadelphia with the winner headed to LA).

Somehow, some way, these two seem to be headed on a collision course in the playoffs. At which point, the Mets will need to prove that they can do enough damage against the Dodgers’ lefties to win a series. That seems like it’d be plausible after taking four of seven from LA this season, but the postseason is a different animal. And when it comes to exploiting matchups, the Dodgers may just have the edge.

Their starters have put up some very solid numbers against the Mets in their careers:

Kershaw – .224 wOBA, .259 xwOBA
Urias: .261 wOBA, .280 xwOBA
Anderson: .267 wOBA, .281 xwOBA
Heaney: .332 wOBA, .253 xwOBA

The only lefty starter they’ve had steady success against is Andrew Heaney, but that comes with the caveat that much of it was the result of luck. In the two wins against L.A. this series, they put up three runs in 12 innings vs. Kershaw and Anderson and that was with Kershaw on a pitch count and deGrom opposing Anderson. The results were favorable, but not overwhelming enough for me to think the Mets can overcome the Dodgers’ lefties enough come October.

It will take dominant results from the Mets’ pitching staff to limit the Dodgers’ offense. We know they will be in any game that deGrom or Scherzer are starting, but the rest of the rotation is questionable.

While Bassitt had a great start on Thursday, his career numbers vs current Dodgers aren’t inspiring (.382 wOBA, .390 xwOBA). Taijuan Walker may hold his own (.324 wOBA, .332 xwOBA) but he also ranks near the bottom third of the league in almost every major Statcast category, so he’s a question mark. David Peterson’s only started against the Dodgers once in his career, which was earlier this season, and they scored 4 runs against him (only 1 earned) in 3.1 innings thanks to him walking four Dodgers in the process.

Someone will need to step up for the Mets to help provide stability to non-Scherzer and deGrom starts. But they all come with volatility.

Jul 24, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach (32) reacts after striking out during the third inning against the San Diego Padres at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports /

We haven’t even mentioned the fact that they’re also likely to see Tony Gonsolin, who has a 199 ERA+ that leads the National League. Gonsolin will obviously have to come back healthy from the IL to be a threat, but when he’s on he’s one of the best in the league (who the Mets also couldn’t touch in June when he put up a statline of 0 ER on 2 H in 6 IP).

The other factor to consider with LA’s lefties is some of the other subtle, or not so subtle, ways that it’d affect the Mets’ lineup. Most notably it’d mean removing Daniel Vogelbach from the lineup. Since the Mets acquired him he’s hit for a 151 wRC+. That’s a huge hit to remove from the lineup since he doesn’t start vs lefties (and for good reason as he only has a wRC+ of 27 vs lefties this season). For most of this series the Mets’ biggest trade deadline acquisition would be rendered useless.

The Mets may be able to overcome the Dodgers in October, but if they do it’s going to need to be on the backs of their pitchers and they’ll need some of their guys to outperform their means. What they did this week was not enough to convince me they can beat the Dodgers in the playoffs.

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Their best course of action may just be to hope for Atlanta or Philly (both of whom hit lefties well) to knock off L.A. and buy themselves a friendlier NL East matchup in the NLCS.

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