Did the Mets really prove they’re a threat to the Dodgers?

Their starters have put up some very solid numbers against the Mets in their careers:

Kershaw – .224 wOBA, .259 xwOBA
Urias: .261 wOBA, .280 xwOBA
Anderson: .267 wOBA, .281 xwOBA
Heaney: .332 wOBA, .253 xwOBA

The only lefty starter they’ve had steady success against is Andrew Heaney, but that comes with the caveat that much of it was the result of luck. In the two wins against L.A. this series, they put up three runs in 12 innings vs. Kershaw and Anderson and that was with Kershaw on a pitch count and deGrom opposing Anderson. The results were favorable, but not overwhelming enough for me to think the Mets can overcome the Dodgers’ lefties enough come October.

It will take dominant results from the Mets’ pitching staff to limit the Dodgers’ offense. We know they will be in any game that deGrom or Scherzer are starting, but the rest of the rotation is questionable.

While Bassitt had a great start on Thursday, his career numbers vs current Dodgers aren’t inspiring (.382 wOBA, .390 xwOBA). Taijuan Walker may hold his own (.324 wOBA, .332 xwOBA) but he also ranks near the bottom third of the league in almost every major Statcast category, so he’s a question mark. David Peterson’s only started against the Dodgers once in his career, which was earlier this season, and they scored 4 runs against him (only 1 earned) in 3.1 innings thanks to him walking four Dodgers in the process.

Someone will need to step up for the Mets to help provide stability to non-Scherzer and deGrom starts. But they all come with volatility.