MLB rule changes: Why the shift rule is a horrible idea
By Bill Felber
Winning
The shift came into widespread popularity over the course of the past decade for one primary reason: Teams like to win and shifting promotes winning. Nothing in the 2023 rules changes affects that most essential bottom line principle.
The primary outgrowth of what might be termed the Statcast era has been a league-wide swing away from hitting for average and toward hitting for power. In simple terms, it is a more efficient way to win.
Proof of this is readily available in the data. MLB teams are on pace to average 175 home runs and a .397 slugging average.
But an emphasis on the power game brings with it subsidiary costs, and those are even more evident. When the 2022 season concludes, nearly one in every four plate appearances will have ended in a strikeout. That’s a 20 percent increase in the overall strikeout rate from just a decade ago.
Over the past winter, teams gave out nearly $860 million worth of contracts to five players, all known for power. None of the five — Trevor Story in Boston, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in Texas , Kyle Schwarber in Philadelphia and Javier Baez in Detroit — is likely to finish the season with a batting average above .250. They will, however, strike out close to 700 times.
Schwarber in fact leads the league in both home runs (37) and strikeouts (179).
When somebody complains about baseball having become a no-action game, that’s what they’re talking about
Banning the shift does nothing at all to change the governing front office dynamic that strikeouts are an acceptable price to pay for power, which is viewed as the key to winning. As long as that dynamic holds, front offices will continue to emphasize — and pay for — no-contact. Banning the shift has no role to play in that.