Presenting a very deep MLB 2022 rookie All-Star team
Catcher
Adley Rutschman was viewed as a can’t miss prospect when he was called up to Baltimore in mid-May, and the 6-2, 220 pounder hasn’t disappointed.
Drafted by Baltimore as the first pick in 2019, the former Oregon State star is hitting .255 in more than 400 pate appearances with 1 home runs. Hs 130 OPS+ — placing him 30 percent better than his peers—is exceptional for any veteran, much less a player with less than a full season of big league experience.
He has a +1.8 Win Probability Added.
Defensively Rutschman has been exceptional. His measurable include +16 Defensive Runs Saved, a total that is second in all of MLB behind only the Yankees’ Jose Trevino (+18).
In the most significant non-measurable — his handling of a pitching staff — Rutschman has won near-unanimous praise from those around the Orioles for his maturity at the tender age of 24. He is given outsized credit for projecting the 2022 Orioles from certain AL East tail-enders into playoff contention.
With just two weeks remaining in the season, it seems unlikely that the Orioles will actually reach postseason play (they are five games behind the Mariners).
But nobody thought they’d be above .500, which they are. In Baltimore, they credit Rutschman for leading much of the turnaround, some going as far as to anoint him as the first face of the franchise since Cal Ripken.
That is high praise indeed.
First base
The injuries to key players — Byron Buxton, Jake Cave, Chris Archer, Sony Gray and others — provided opportunities for young players to step up up. Miranda was among those few in the Twin Cities who seized that opportunity.
His personal window opened when projected first baseman Miguel Sano began the season in an .083 slump, and then went on the injured list.
Debuting in early May, Miranda is batting .270 with 15 home runs and 64 RBI, all of that working out to a 120 OPS+. A second-round pick in 2016, Miranda lingered five seasons in the Twins’ system before finally getting his chance.
Now Miranda, who is only 24, seems to have seized full control of the position from Sano and all other potential challengers. Since his callup, Miranda has started all but 14 of Minnesota’s games, and hit safely in 70 of them.
He’s contributed 1.1 WAR to the Twins’ effort to stay within sight of the Guardians and White Sox. The one area where he needs to improve is on his defense. Through his first part of a season, Miranda’s defensive numbers are modestly negative.
Still, Miranda has a window going forward to become Minnesota’s regular first baseman. If he can ramp up his production slightly, he can be an important contributor to future pennant chases in the AL Central.
Second base
Ozzie Albies is Atlanta’s regular second baseman; that much is clear. But two separate IL stints (the latest beginning just last week) opened a window for Vaughn Grissom to gain playing time. Grissom has more than taken advantage.
Since being called up when Albies was injured in early August, Grissom is batting .306 with an .835 OPS and a 130 OPS+. Call it coincidence if you want, but the Braves are 28-10 since Grissom arrived to fill in for Albies.
Grissom’s defensive work has been only average to date, although average is acceptable for a kid for little more than a month’s major league experience who is playing in a pennant race.
An 11th-round pick in the 2019 draft, Grissom was batting .312 at High-A Rome when he was called up. The interesting question is what Atlanta will do with its homegrown star once Albies returns.
In the minors, he played all infield positions but was mostly a shortstop. Atlanta’s current shortstop, Dansby Swanson, ranks among the game’s best. But Swanson is also a free agent at season’s end. Would the Braves have the institutional guts to conclude that Grissom is ready to take over for Swanson and let Dansby walk? Time will tell.
One thing is for certain … if Grissom continues to produce as he has since his callup, he’ll be a key figure as the Braves try to defend their 2021 World Series title.
Shortstop
The shortstop position is decidedly the strength of the 2022 rookie team. At least three legitimate candidates for the starting spot emerge.
But despite his obvious potential, Oneil Cruz’s .218 batting average disqualifies him from consideration. And Bobby Witt, although well-qualified, has played enough at third base to be a legitimate pick there.
That leaves the position to Jeremy Pena of the AL-favored Houston Astros.
Pena had a lot to live up to, being handed the shortstop position … and on a contender, no less, when Carlos Correa left via free agency. He’s more than lived up to the pressure.
Drafted by the Astros in the third round of the 2018 draft, Pena arrived this spring as the franchise’s top prospect. Deep into his rookie season, Pena is batting .249 with 19 home runs. His offensive numbers generally are pedestrian, although that’s okay on the Astros, who — with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman — don’t need more offense.
They do need defense up the middle, and Pena has given Houston plenty of that. He leads big league shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved (15), and is tied for second in range.
Pena plainly needs to improve on his batting work to reach his full potential. He strikes out too frequently (nearly once every four trips) and rarely walks. In the short term, however, his defensive contributions more than make up for those offensive deficiencies.
Third base
Bobby Witt Jr. is Kansas City’s shortstop now and for the foreseeable future. But Witt has played enough third base as a rookie — 55 games at the position, 50 of them starts — to justify moving him over one spot on the infield … especially since without Witt third base is the rookie team’s biggest weakness.
Like Pena and several other members of this rookie club, Witt came to spring camp with the burden of high expectations. The second overall pick in 2019 behind Rutschman in Baltimore, he is the son of former major league pitcher Bobby Witt.
He has given the Royals a strong building block season, including a .250 average, 20 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and 75 RBI. That has translated to only a minimal +0.8 WAR, although on the talent thin Royals that still qualifies Witt as the fifth-most valuable regular.
Witt needs to polish his defensive game. To date it has produced -4 Defensive Runs Saved, although that may be due in part to his occasional shuffle between shortstop and third base. At just 22 years old, the Royals fully expect both his offensive and defensive games to produce more productive numbers as they mature.
With a 103 OPS+, he’s already a slightly above average offensive threat, and there’s every indication he will build on that in future seasons.
Outfield/DH
Steven Kwan has been a revelation as leadoff hitter and left fielder for the Guardians. He’s batting .298 for the AL Central division leaders, and his 9.1 percent strikeout rate is next to nothing for an MLB hitter these days. His 5.0 WAR is second-best among major league rookies.
The only reason Kwan won’t win Rookie of the Year is because of Julio Rodriguez in center. Entering the season as the game’s No. 1 rookie prospect, Rodriguez has justified all the hype surrounding him in Seattle. He’s batting .279 with 27 home runs and a 142 OPS+. At 5.6, he is seventh in the AL in WAR.
The Braves’ effort to chase down the Mets in the NL East has been powered by a rookie infusion, among them outfielder Michael Harris. He lacks enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, but if he had them he would rank third at .308. Harris’ 5.2 WAR since his debut in late May.
Oscar Gonzalez is Cleveland’s regular right fielder, but he’s made a few starts at DH and as an obvious fourth outfield candidate he can fill that role nicely. Since his debut in late May, Gonzalez has slid into the No. 5 hole in Cleveland’s order, batting .292 with a 125 OPS+.
Pitcher
Filling out a rotation of five legit rookie starters is easy; the hard part is narrowing the list to five. Here goes.
Spencer Strider made two appearances at the end of 2021, and this year has gone 11-5 for Atlanta with a 2.67 ERA in 20 starts encompassing 132 innings. The synoptic number for measuring pitcher contributions is ERA+, where 100 equals league average. Strider sits at 155, a number which – if he had enough innings to qualify – would rank sixth in the National League.
Seattle’s George Kirby is a big reason why the Mariners are in line for their first postseason appearance since 2001. Since his May 8 debut, Kirby has produced a 7-4 record in 22 starts covering 118 innings. He’s carrying a 124 ERA+ and 2.98 ERA.
The Twins’ September collapse has been no fault of rookie right hander Joe Ryan. After being introduced via five starts in 2021, Ryan has delivered a 12-8 record and 3.61 ERA in 25 starts for the Twins. The Twins are just 5-12 since early September, Ryan delivering two of those five victories.
Chicago’s Justin Steele pitched just enough in 2021 for the Cubs to disqualify him and his 3.18 ERA for this team. But that opens up room for two surprising finds in Cincinnati, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo. Together with a third and more highly touted rookie, Hunter Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft have given Reds fans hope for the future. They have a 9-10 record in 33 starts encompassing 185 innings for Cincinnati. Ashcraft’s ERA+ is 114, Lodolo’s is 117.
Next. Could this be the silver lining in Strider's setback?. dark
The Texas Rangers haven’t used Brock Burke in a save situation yet, but they’ll get around to it. Burke has a 7-3 record and 1.53 ERA in 49 appearances covering 77 innings. That works out to an extraordinary 261 ERA+.