A challenger emerges for 2022’s AL Rookie of the Year

For most of the season, the consensus has been that Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez will be the American League Rookie of the Year.

Rodriguez may still deserve the vote when the season ends 10 days from now. But, with each day that ticks off the schedule, Cleveland’s Steven Kwan emerges as a legitimate challenger to Rodriguez.

Both statistically and for their roles in boosting their teams into postseason position, strong cases can be made for both.

But, as the final days of the season unfold, Steven Kwan holds one major potential advantage for AL Rookie of the Year: He’s playing and Julio Rodriguez isn’t.

Both rookies clearly deserve recognition for their roles in lifting their respective teams into a postseason position. Kwan is the leadoff hitter and inspirational sparkplug for a Guardians team that will enter that postseason as one of baseball’s hottest.

Since August 1, the Guardians are 34-18 (.654). Only two teams have a better record since that date: the Dodgers (38-14 .731) and the Astros (34-17 .667).

Kwan has clearly been a major reason for Cleveland’s surge. He’s batting .367 in Guardian victories and has improved his average by 40 percentage points over the season’s second half.

Kwan has been so hot that the statistical profiles of the two leading contenders for the award should now best be described as ‘pick ‘em.’ Rodriguez continues to stand out in a few important categories, notably the power -related categories. But Kwan has the edge, frequently a significant edge, in most of the rest.

As measured by baseball-reference.com, here’s the comparative profile.

                                           Kwan                     Rodriguez

Plate Appearances          602                         549

Hits                                      158                         140

Home runs                              6                           27

RBI                                          49                          73

Strikeouts                             54                        143

Batting average               .298                       .280

On base average              .373                       .342

Slugging average              .400                       .502

WAR                                       5.3                          5.7

Win Probability Added       0.5                         3.6

Rodriguez’ advantage in home runs and slugging average account for his significant edge in Win Probability Added. If a voter lives and dies by WPA  (not an entirely illogical position for a voter to take), that alone may be enough to sway the vote to the side of Rodriguez.

But look at Kwan’s advantages. Just for starters, he has played more (showing up is a big deal in sports) and, with Rodriguez on the injured list, with back problems that Kwan advantage will only grow over the final 10 days.

He has a higher batting average, he gets on base more often, and the injury suffered by Rodriguez has allowed Kwan to virtually draw even in WAR. By season’s end, Kwan may well lead in that category.

He also puts the ball in play far more frequently than the Seattle rookie. Kwan’s whiff rate is just 9.0 percent; Rodriguez is at 26.1 percent for the season.

Especially combined with his reputation entering the season, Rodriguez’s advantage in power probably makes him still the favorite in AL Rookie of the Year voting. But, given that Rodriguez is sidelined, Kwan is close enough in several categories, and his Guardians profile is rising fast enough that if he has a hot final 10 days, the voting dynamic could change.