How the Los Angeles Dodgers stack up against MLB’s greatest teams

Having long since dispatched the National League West, the Los Angeles Dodgers will spend the final 10 days of the 2022 season pursuing all-time greatness.

There is a chance, slim but a chance, that the Dodgers could become only the 11th team since the creation of the two present major leagues in 1901 to finish with a winning percentage above .700. To achieve that, the Dodgers would have to go 8-1 through the remaining nine games on their schedule.

That’s unlikely … except we’re talking about the Dodgers here. They’ve had several stretches of winning eight of nine this season, most recently between September 10-20.

Beyond that, those final nine games include three with the Padres and six with the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers are a combined 20-9 against those two opponents.

To find the last team to finish with a .700 winning percentage over a full season, you have to go back to 2001, when the Seattle Mariners did so. Three seasons earlier the New York Yankees also did so. But the last before that was the 1954 Cleveland Indians. Reach back to the 1930s and you can add the 1939 Yankees and 1931 Philadelphia Athletics.

Even at their present .693 winning percentage, the Dodgers are in elite company. Only 14 teams have won that high a percentage of games since 1901. Aside from the four mentioned above, the only one to do so since 1930 was the 1932 Yankees (107-47, .695)

How do the 2022 Dodgers stack up against baseball history’s elite teams, the 10 members of the .700 Club? To get at least an idea, we can compare the performance of the 2022 Dodgers against those teams in five highly relevant categories: Offensive WAR, Defensive WAR, OPS+, ERA+, and Run Differential.

To ensure against any sort of era-based bias, we’ll normalize the data for the three categories not automatically normalized — oWAR, dWAR and Run Differential. By looking at the ordinal rank of the Dodgers and the 10 .700 percentage teams, we can assess how L.A. 2022 measures up to the all-time greats.

For the record, the 10 members of baseball’s .700 club are, in order of win percentage: 1906 Cubs (116-36, .763); 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates (103-36, .741); 1909 Pittsburgh Pirates (110-42, .724); 1954 Cleveland Indians (111-43, .721); 2001 Seattle Mariners (116-46, .716); 1927 New York Yankees (110-44, .714); 1907 Chicago Cubs (107-45, .704); 1931 Philadelphia A’s (107-45, .704); 1998 New York Yankees (114-48, .704); 1939 New York Yankees (106-45, .702).

dWAR (normalized)

The dWAR figures are normalized by the same process of calculating the standard deviation of each team’s dWAR against the seasonal average of all teams in the league. That should smooth out some of the anomalies that would otherwise arise when comparing the fielding skill of teams from the first decade of the 20th century against modern clubs.

In dWAR, the Mariners again emerge as No. 1. That team produced an extraordinary +10.2 dWAR led by such defensive stalwarts as third baseman David Bell (+2.3) and shortstop Carlos Guillen (+1.7) Defensively, the Mariners outperformed the AL average of -0.03 dWAR by 2.26 standard deviations.

Led by shortstop Joe Tinker (+3.6 dWAR in 1906) and second baseman Johnny Evers (+3.3 in 1907), the two Cubs entries amassed dWAR scores of 10.2 and 10.7, respectively. But in the more perilous early days of fielding, those numbers were only 2.13 and 2.22 standard deviations better than their league averages, leaving the Cubs entries slightly behind the 2001 Mariners in ordinal placement.

By all-time standards the Dodgers are defensively ordinary. Their total-to-date of +.03 dWAR is just 1.03 standard deviations better than the 2022 National League average

Here is the full list.

1              2001 Seattle Mariners                    2.26

2              1907 Chicago Cubs                           2.22

3              1906 Chicago Cubs                           2.13

4              1931 Philadelphia Athletics           1.71

5              1939 New York Yankees                 1.69

6              1909 Pittsburgh Pirates                  1.37

7              1902 Pittsburgh Pirates                  1.36

8              1927 New York Yankees                  1.28

9              2022 Los Angeles Dodgers             1.03

10           1954 Cleveland Indians                    0.73

11           1998 New York Yankees                   0.43

Through two categories, the 2001 Mariners — leading in both oWAR and dWAR — have a perfect ordinal average of 1.0. The 2022 Dodgers are at 8.0 and well back in the pack of great teams. Both, however, are about to change drastically.

OPS+

Since OPS+ is already normalized for season-to-season conditions, we need no adjustment beyond looking at each team’s average figure.

Not surprisingly, the top of the list is dominated by the Murderer’s Row 1927 Yankees. That club achieved a 127 team OPS+, meaning that the average performance of all team members was 27 percent above that season’s AL average.

A glance at the player data explains why. In his 60-home run season, Babe Ruth had a +225 OPS+. Lou Gehrig wasn’t far behind at 220. Leadoff hitter Earle Combs measured 141, and five Yankee regulars topped 125.

Four other great teams topped a 115 team average OPS+, those being the 1902 Pirates (119), the 2001 Mariners (117), the 1998 Yankees (116), and the 2022 Dodgers (115).

Here’s the full list.

1              1927 New York Yankees                 127

2              1902 Pittsburgh Pirates                 119

3              2001 Seattle Mariners                    117

4              1998 New York Yankees                 116

5              2022 Los Angeles Dodgers            115

6              1939 New York Yankees                 111

7              1909 Pittsburgh Pirates                 107

8              1906 Chicago Cubs                          103

9              1931 Philadelphia Athletics           102

9              1954 Cleveland Indians                   102

11           1907 Chicago Cubs                              92

As odd as it sounds, one team actually achieved a .700 winning percentage despite an offense that (based on OPS+) was 8 percent below average in its league. As we’ll see when we look at ERA+ and run differential, the 1907 Cubs had other ways to win games, so they did not rely on power, even by the standards of their time.

Because I know you are wondering, three-fifths of the way through this five-part test, the 2001 Mariners continue to lead, although their average ordinal score has fallen to 1.67. The 1927 Yankees, at 3.67, are second, followed by the 1902 Pirates (4.33) and the 1939 Yankees (4.67).

ERA+

Like OPS+, ERA+ is naturally normalized, so no adjustment on our part is necessary. It is also probably the synoptic number for assessing pitching performance, particularly at a staff level.

The strength of the 2022 Dodgers is the team’s pitching staff, which for the moment grades out at a 152 ERA+. If that holds up through season’s end, it will top all 10 of the staffs of the .700 teams, exactly one point better than the 1906 Cubs.

Three other teams, the 1907 Cubs, 1954 Indians, and 1939 Yankees, rode dominant pitching staffs that scored above a 130 OPS+.

Here is how the 11 teams ranked.

1              2022 Los Angeles Dodgers            152

2              1906 Chicago Cubs                           151

3              1907 Chicago Cubs                           143

4              1954 Cleveland Indians                   133

5              1939 New York Yankees                  132

6              1931 Philadelphia Athletics            129

7              1909 Pittsburgh Pirates                  125

8              1927 New York Yankees                  122

9              1902 Pittsburgh Pirates                  118

10           2001 Seattle Mariners                      117

11           1998 New York Yankees                   116

The relatively poor pitching rating of both the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees undermines the overall ordinal ranking of the two most recent .700 teams.

Through four categories, the 2001 Mariners remain in a tenuous first place, but their ordinal average sinks to 3.75. Hot on their heels are the two Yankee teams of 1939 and 1927, both at 4.75.

With an average ordinal score of 5.50, the 2022 Dodgers rank fifth among the 11 teams.

And that means that the final rank will hinge on adjusted run differential.

Adjusted run differential

Due to the difference in era norms, calculating run differential is a complex, three-step process. First, determine each team’s runs scored as a percentage of the league average. Second, do the same thing for runs allowed. Third, add the two percentage increments.

When you do, the 1906 Cubs emerge with the best adjusted run differential. That team scored 704 runs, 128.2 percent of the 1906 NL average of 549. It also allowed just 381 runs, 30.5 percent fewer than the league average. That puts the Cubs adjusted run differential at 158.7.

By that process, three other teams top 150 percent, and the 2022 Dodgers (150.7) are one of them.

The 2001 Mariners, who we’ve been following, manage only a 138.2 adjusted run differential, which by the standard of this elite group is slightly below average.

Here is the rank for this category.

1              1906 Chicago Cubs                           158.7

2              1939 New York Yankees                  151.3

3              1902 Pittsburgh Pirates                  150.8

4              2022 Los Angeles Dodgers             150.7

5              1927 New York Yankees                  148.8

6              1909 Pittsburgh Pirates                  145.0

7              2001 Seattle Mariners                     138.2

8              1998 New York Yankees                  138.0

9              1954 Cleveland Indians                    137.3

10           1907 Chicago Cubs                             134.8

11           1931 Philadelphia Athletics             129.3

The three most recent .700 teams, the 1954 Indians, 1998 Yankees, and 2001 Mariners, all rank below the average of this elite group.

The final rank

When all five categories are considered, the 2022 Dodgers earn an average ordinal rank of 5.20, which is precisely mid-pack among the 11 teams. Here’s how they stand.

1              1939 New York Yankees                  4.20

2              1906 Chicago Cubs                           4.40

2              2001 Seattle Mariners                    4.40

4              1927 New York Yankees                 4.80

5              1902 Pittsburgh Pirates                  5.00

6              2022 Los Angeles Dodgers            5.20

7              1909 Pittsburgh Pirates                  7.00

8              1907 Chicago Cubs                           7.40

9              1954 Cleveland Indians                   7.60

10           1998 New York Yankees                  7.80

11           1931 Philadelphia Athletics            8.00

The 1939 Yankees did not lead any of the five categories. But they were the only team to rank sixth or higher in all five, giving them a narrow edge in ordinal rank over the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners.

There is irony in the fact that the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners end up tied for second since, with 116 victories each, they are the two winningest teams in history. The Cubs have the better percentage, having played 10 fewer games than the Mariners.

Although the 2022 Dodgers came in sixth, they are only one ordinal point behind the 1939 Yankees, which is less of a margin than separates them from the team right behind them, the 1909 Pirates.

One incomplete category

There is one more category to be considered, but it cannot be considered in its totality yet. That category is postseason performance.

Obviously it’s impossible to consider the 2022 Dodgers’ post-season performance at this point; that will have to wait until early November … or possibly earlier.

The one thing we can say is that exceptional regular-season performance does not necessarily equate to exceptional postseason performance. Of the 10 .700 teams to reach postseason — there was no World Series in 1902 — six did win their World Series.

But that means four did not, and those four include the two winningest teams of all time, the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners.

In fact the Mariners are the only one, aside from the 1902 Pirates, who did not play in a World Series, having been knocked out by the Yankees in the ALCS. The 1954 Indians and 1931 Athletics also lost in their World Series appearance.

The 2022 Dodgers will have the most difficult route to navigate of all of the teams since they would have to win a dozen games across three playoff rounds in order to claim the ultimate prize. All the other .700 teams except the 1998 Yankees and 2001 Mariners simply had to win a best-of-seven World Series. The 1998 Yankees were required to win 11 postseason games, which they did.

The 2001 Mariners would have needed 11 wins to claim that World Series; they ended up winning just four games.