Along with pitcher Marcus Stroman, outfielder Seiya Suzuki was one of the Chicago Cubs’ most significant offseason signings. The international player had many expectations, including producing 4 to 5 WAR in his first MLB season. But it is unfair to scrutinize his first year as a major leaguer thinking he was going to rake the same as the NPB. Nevertheless, I think Suzuki did better than expected, and it seems he will be Chicago’s next star.
The Chicago Cubs signed Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million contract as a crucial part of the team’s rebuild. In 2021, the Japanese player slashed .317/.433/.636 with a 1.069 OPS, including 38 bombs in the NPB, a league lacking pitching velocity compared to MLB.
With the 2022 season almost ending, Suzuki has a batting line of .263/.336/.433 with a .769 OPS and an OPS+ of 116 in 372 at-bats. Heading into Friday’s action, he has 98 hits (including 13 homers), 38 walks, and a rough 103 strikeouts. These stats would translate to a 3.1% home run rate and a horrible 24.7% strikeout percentage.
That predicted 4 to 5 WAR is looking more like a 1.7 WAR. But, to be fair, Seiya Suzuki has only played 104 games so far for the Chicago Cubs.
In 2023, Seiya Suzuki should only focus on hitting high-speed pitches as he can swing more over the fences. This year pitcher threw him 1,003 fastballs, ending with eight of his 13 home runs.
The outfielder may benefit from being in the right field as even with an 89.5 mph arm strength, he has -5 outs above average and horrible reaction time (-0.5), burst (-1.5), and route (-0.3).
He needs to establish more plate discipline next season to have successful at-bats. This season, Suzuki has a 21.5% chase percentage, a 39.2% swing rate, and a 23.6% whiff with 50.5% of pitches placed in the zone.
I would be fine if Suzuki, an $85 million designated hitter, could produce 30 bombs next year. But, of course, also to produce the same amount of doubles he did this year. He is an extra-base hit machine.
Still, I believe the Cubs made the right move by paying for Suzuki, as he is not the next Shogo Akiyama.
Jed Hoyer needs to provide the fanbase with what Theo Epstein failed to provide with the previous Cubs core — consistent hitting.