Stunning graph shows just how Atlanta Braves submarined New York Mets

Oct 2, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) reacts after hitting a pop fly against the Atlanta Braves in the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Larry Robinson-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) reacts after hitting a pop fly against the Atlanta Braves in the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Larry Robinson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Heading into the weekend, the National League East was up for grabs between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. However, once thought to be New York’s division, Atlanta made a statement by sweeping the series and locking up the NL East.

Atlanta’s run to the top of the NL East didn’t just happen this weekend, however. For the Braves, it’s been a ride on a rocket since August 11, a date which will be live in infamy for New York Mets fans.

One graph shows just how the Atlanta Braves took the NL East from the New York Mets

Thanks to the folks at FanGraphs, we have been tracking the divisions and their potential winners throughout the season. The graph below comes from their site and shows just how much the Braves overcame to take the NL East and earn the division title and a first-round postseason bye with just one more win or Mets loss over the final three games of the season.

Of particular interest on the graph are two dates. First, there is August 11, shown on the graph as the low point for the Braves when Atlanta was given just a 3.2 percent chance to win the division while New York had a 96.4 percent chance. On that date, New York was riding a six-game winning streak and had a seven-game lead over the Braves.

The next date is September 30, just as the lines on the graph start to intersect. New York’s percentage to win the East as the three-game series started in Atlanta was at 64.1 percent. Three days later, that had plunged to 1.9 percent.

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New York’s chances at a division title took a stunning turn this weekend in Atlanta. Now the Mets must regroup ahead of a Wild Card matchup (likely with the San Diego Padres this weekend at Citi Field) with the top-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers awaiting the winner.