Cleveland Guardians: Success will lead to some tough offseason decisions

If you look at the numbers, Amed Rosario had an average season in 2022 for the Cleveland Guardians. His OPS was .715, which ties him for 11th among all MLB shortstops. His defense was slightly below average, like it has been most of his career. He drew about one walk per week, hardly ideal for someone who hits at the top of the order. His platoon splits suggest that he should be kept as far away from right-handed pitchers as humanly possible.

But if analytics was all that mattered, the Cleveland Guardians would be in third place like everyone expected. If you spent much time watching the Guardians this season, you would find it hard to imagine them winning the AL Central without Rosario. He was seemingly in the middle of every rally, and he set a tone for the whole season by leading the AL in infield hits. Jose Ramirez, hitting behind Rosario, drove in 126 runs; that doesn’t happen unless you are hitting behind someone good. The fact that the Guardians finished 16th in MLB in runs scored despite getting historically low output from the eighth and ninth spots in the order must mean that the top of the order was doing something right.

Everything looks rosy when you win the division by 11 games, but how Amed Rosario’s season is perceived has big implications for the future of the Cleveland Guardians.

Rosario is eligible for arbitration after this season, then for free agency next year. In Cleveland, that generally leads to a trade, unless the two sides can come together on an extension. So, is Rosario a decent player who might be expendable if he gets too expensive, or is he a core piece the Guardians should build around?

Complicating things even further is the fact that the Guardians’ prospect list is loaded with middle infielders who are either ready for the big leagues now or will be in a year or two. If Rosario’s value is weighed by analytics, he could be replaced by one of those prospects without much dropoff in productivity, but a huge savings in payroll. But guys who look ready for bigger roles often end up getting exposed when they get those opportunities.

Ideally, Rosario would transition into a super-utility role where he platoons with Josh Naylor at first base, eases the transition for whichever prospect is ready at shortstop, and DHs once or twice a week. Maybe at some point he becomes an emergency outfielder, and ends up with 400 at-bats in situations where he would be most productive. Having a guy like Rosario in such a role could really juice Cleveland’s offense, because he has generally crushed left-handed pitching throughout his career.

But when they go to negotiate an extension with Rosario this offseason, he will approach the negotiations like a guy who racked up 180 hits this season, not like a guy who needs a more limited role. So if he ends up making $10 million, either through an extension or arbitration, does that work in Cleveland’s budget for a utility player? If not, do you keep him as the full-time shortstop and trade the prospects for help in other areas, or do you trade Rosario and hope the kids are ready?

Plenty of teams would trade their current shortstop for Rosario and be thrilled. To have a workable starter and multiple options in the pipeline is a nice problem to have. But most teams don’t give a second thought to paying a core player $10 million a year. Large-market teams would give Rosario the extension, then worry about how he fits down the road. The Guardians don’t have that luxury, and the fact that they have threaded that needle correctly time and time again is a big reason they are still playing as the postseason looms.

Rosario won’t be the only tough call. George Valera and Will Brennan look like they will be ready to take outfield roles next year, but who among Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, and Oscar Gonzalez should lose playing time? The rotation, which really jelled in the second half of the season, is full of guys who are about to get expensive, so making the right choices on extensions and trades will be crucial for the Cleveland Guardians.