2022 MLB front office rankings: The NL East
The race for the NL East divisional title came down to a tie-breaker. In the end, Braves front office boss Alex Anthopoulos gave his team just enough of a personnel edge to gain that narrow advantage.
Anthopoulos and new Mets general manager Billy Eppler matched one another move-for-move during the off-season and regular season, with Anthopoulos eventually holding the edge. Perhaps as a result, his Braves got a bye into the divisional round while Eppler’s Mets were consigned to what turned out to be a fatal wild card round appearance against the Padres.
The analysis that follows is an assessment of the impact each NL East front office’s personnel decisions since November of 2021 have had on their team’s standing. It is based on the aggregate Wins Above Average of moves made in five areas:
- Players acquired by trade, purchase or waiver claim.
- Players signed as free agents or extended for more than one year.
- Minor league callups.
- Players lost via trade, waiver claim or sale.
- Players lost to free agency or released.
Wins Above Average is the preferred metric for this calculation because it is zero-based, meaning that it approximately reflects the number of games by which a front office either helped or hurt its team in the standings.
There was one change of significance to front office leadership in the division this season. That occurred in New York, where new owner Steve Cohen named Billy Eppler general manager, succeeding Brodie Van Wagenen. Sandy Alderson remained team president.
The division’s four other front office teams remained in place. Those teams are headed by:
Atlanta Braves, Alex Anthopoulos, president of baseball operations and general manager.
Miami Marlins, Kim Ng, general manager.
Philadelphia Phillies, Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations; Sam Fuld, general manager.
Washington Nationals, Mike Rizzo, president of baseball operations and general manager.
In order of effectiveness, here’s how all five NL East front offices performed in 2022. Also listed are the most significant moves by each front office.
Alex Anthopoulos, Atlanta Braves
2022 impact: +8.9 games.
NL East: first
MLB rank: third
When Freddie Freeman opted to disdain Atlanta’s offer and instead accept a better one from the Dodgers, it left Anthopoulos with a 3.8 WAA hole to dig out of. That he did so is one of the great front office performances in recent seasons.
Freeman’s loss was one of eight Anthopoulos-related decisions affecting major league players in 2022 that carried a value in excess of 1.1 WAA. To keep his Braves in contending status, he made four moves that turned out to pay big dividends to Atlanta. They were:
March 14: To take over for Freeman at first base, Anthopoulos traded two fringe major leaguers and two minor leaguers to Oakland for Matt Olson. In a Braves uniform, Olson hit 34 home runs, good for a +1.2 WAA.
March 15: Anthopoulos signed free agent pitcher Collin McHugh as bullpen help. McHugh generated +1.3 WAA of impact.
April 7: The front office promoted pitcher Spencer Strider to the major league roster on opening day. Strider was 11-5 in 20 starts and produced a +2.6 WAA.
May 28: The front office promoted outfielder Michael Harris from the farm system. The likely Rookie of the Year, Harris produced a +3.8 WAA for the Braves, effectively offsetting the loss of Freeman all by himself.
Overall, Anthopoulos made 45 personnel moves, of which 15 produced positive results while 24 were negative and six neutral.
In Harris, Strider, infielder Vaughn Grissom and five other first-year players, Anthopoulos enjoyed the benefits of the game’s best rookie class, one that boosted the Braves by a collective +6.6 WAA. That was double the impact of the second-ranked rookie class.
The deals that obtained Olson and reliever Raisel Iglesias lifted Anthopoulos to fourth for trade impact. Thanks largely to Freeman’s departure, he ranked just 20th for free agent impact.
Sandy Alderson and Billy Eppler, New York Mets
2022 impact: +6.2 games.
NL East rank: second
MLB rank: fourth
The Mets’ late-season and post-season letdown put a damper on the performance of Alderson and Eppler. That’s too bad because they did well by Cohen’s lavish purse, improving the Mets’ personnel base by more than all but three front offices.
Eppler certainly went at his task with vigor. He made decisions affecting 54 players who produced value for a major league team, 23 of which were positive to the Mets and 28 negative.
Given how easy it is to spend money, the success of Alderson and Eppler in applying it productively is striking. He signed Max Scherzer for three years, and Scherzer returned that confidence with a 4.0 WAA season that was the third most impactful of any 2022 move.
To Scherzer and holdover Jacob DeGrom, Eppler added pitcher Chris Bassitt in a trade with Oakland. That was worth another +1.7 WAA. Starling Marte signed for four years and generated +2.1 WAA. Reliever Adam Ottavino, another free agent addition, brought +1.6 WAA.
Eppler also showed a keen eye for knowing who not to sign. He cut ties with infielder Jonathan Villar, whose travels through the league in 2022 hurt the signing teams to the tune of -1.9 WAA. Darin Ruf left and cost his new team -1.2 WAA.
Eppler’s only significant personnel error was the decision to lose pitcher Marcus Stroman to free agency. Stroman signed with Chicago and produced +1.3 WAA for his new team.
The signings of Scherzer and Marte were two big reasons why the Mets front office, at +9.7 WAA, ranked No. 1 in all of baseball for free agent impact. The Mets were 19th in trade impact and 16th in farm system impact.
Dave Dombrowski and Sam Fuld, Philadelphia Phillies
2022 impact: -4.4 games
NL East: third
MLB rank: 19th.
Fuld’s Phillies were another of the five playoff-bound teams who overcame their front office’s misjudgments to reach post-season play. In the case of Fuld, his team survived thanks to a strong +10.3 WAA production by leftovers from the previous regime, whose gifts to the Fuld administration included Aaron Nola (+4.8 WAA), Zack Wheeler (+3.7), and Bryce Harper (+1.1)
Fuld made 51 moves affecting major league talent in 2022, and the base numbers balanced out reasonably: 24 had a positive impact, 23 were negative and four were neutral. The problem was that not a single one of Fuld’s personnel decisions delivered a measurable positive impact. He tried – once – signing free agent Nick Castellanos at $100 million for five seasons. But Castellanos came up small, producing -1.9 WAA to his new team’s cause.
The only other potentially important move, leaning on rookie Matt Vierling to bolster the offense, ended with Vierling’s .648 OPS.
In no performance areas did Fuld step up. His decisions yielded -0.8 impact of trade value – that ranked 17th – and 16th in free agent value at -1.0. Led by Vierling, the Phillies’ rookie class was worth -2.6 WAA, ranking 21st.
The good news for Fuld, and Dombrowski, of course, was that despite all that negativity, their team remains standing in the 2022 post-season. In fact, it is only the third time in the franchise’s history – and the first since 1976 — that the Phillies qualified for post-season play despite a negative front office performance.
Kim Ng, Miami Marlins
2022 impact: -8.7 games
NL East rank: fourth.
MLB rank: 26th
The game’s only female chief operating officer completed her second season in Miami with two more victories than in 2021, but no major progress closing the gap with the NL East’s powers.
Ng’s problems are the classic ones faced by small-market teams. The Marlins were last in the NL in attendance and 14th in payroll in the National League, ahead of only Pittsburgh, in 2022. Since MLB cuts such teams no slack on the field, and since Ng knew all of that when she took the job, it’s hard to work up much sympathy for her plight or the team’s.
The Marlins made personnel moves involving 45 Major League players leading up to and during the 2022 season. As you might guess from the team’s record, more than half hurt the team while only one-third produced positive benefit. Only one Ng acquisition generated in excess of +1.0 WAA for Miami…and that one player was infielder Joey Wendle. If you think you can build a winner around Joey Wendle, you must be Mrs. Joey Wendle.
Including Wendle, Ng made four personnel moves resulting in a change of more than 1.1 WAA. Here are the basics of those four moves.
Nov. 29: The Marlins tried to fill a gap behind the plate by obtaining Jake Stallings from Pittsburgh for two minor leaguers and pitcher Zach Thompson. The deal was a disaster for both teams. Stallings hit .223 and netted -2.0 WAA for Miami. Meanwhile, Thompson was 3-10 with a 5.18 ERA and -1.30 WAA for the Pirates.
Nov. 30: The aforementioned Wendle deal went down, sending him from Tampa to Miami for a minor leaguer. Net impact to the Marlins: +1.3 WAA.
Dec. 1. The Marlins signed veteran outfielder Avisail Garcia to a free agent contract. Garcia batted .224 with a .582 OPS+ and generated -2.3 WAA.
July 23: The Marlins called up rookie outfielder J.J. Bleday. The 24-year-old may be a star some day, but as a rookie he hit .167, good for a -1.3 WAA.
There was nothing exceptional in Ng’s maneuverings. At a net impact of -1.8, she ranked 22nd in trade impact. The Marlins were 24th in net free agent impact, and their farm system produced 11 hands at a net of -3.4 WAA. That stood 25th in MLB.
Mike Rizzo, Washington Nationals
2022 impact: -10.8 games
NL East rank: fifth.
MLB rank: 29th.
Coming off a last place finish in 2021, the 2019 world champs went into full tear-down mode prior to 2022.
Rizzo famously and very visibly lost the team’s fourth superstar in as many seasons, Juan Soto following Bruce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Max Scherzer out the door. The haul for Soto – plus a couple of underlings – involved several young Padre prospects who many believe will blossom in Washington.
But since this rating is based entirely on 2022 performance, it is enough to say that the loss of Soto and Josh Bell for three players and three prospects impacted the Nats to the tune of exactly -1.0 game.
Aside from that early August swap, Rizzo played it close to the vest, hoping a selection of bargain basement free agents would make the Nats somewhat competitive. His moves impacted only 36 players with major league value; unfortunately, only eight of those moves worked out to the benefit of the Nats.
Four of those moves involved veteran free agent pickups designed to give the Nats an element of transitional experience while the club figures out a productive path forward. None of those four worked out. Here are the details.
November 30: The Nats signed free agent infielder Cesar Hernandez. He registered -1.3 WAA.
December 12: The Nats signed infielder Maikel Franco. His impact measured out to -2.4 WAA by the time the Nats cut ties with him in August.
March 16: The Nats signed free agent pitcher Aaron Sanchez. He had an 8.33 ERA in seven starts and a -1.2 WAA when the Nats decided enough was enough and released him in late May.
March 17: The Nats signed 41-year-old free agent DH Nelson Cruz, who turned in a .234 average with 10 homers and a -1.5 WAA.
None of that worked out especially favorably for either Rizzo or the Nats. The front office ranked 25th for the season in trade impact, 27th in free agent impact, and 20th in farm system impact.