David Stearns and Matt Arnold, Milwaukee Brewers
Impact: +1.1
Division rank: first
MLB rank: ninth
Coming out of 2021, the Brewers had Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Devin Williams, Josh Hader, Freddy Peralta, Willy Adames and a few minor pieces. The Cardinals had Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas and a deep supporting cast. Most of the experts, who made Milwaukee a preseason favorite thanks to its perceived deeper pitching corps, failed to recognize the inherent talent disparity.
Once July turned to August and the Cardinals’ superiority asserted itself, it was too late for the Brewers front office to turn the situation around.
Stearns and Arnold made 41 moves impacting MLB talent in 2022, only 17 of which impacted the Brewers positively. Superficially, the math gives the Brewers front office credit for improving the team’s talent base by 1.1 games, but even that figure is deceptive.
Eight of those 41 moves involved players who Stearns and Arnold either released or let walk to free agency. All eight were subsequently signed by other teams, and the net impact of those eight amounted to -4.9 games of WAA for the signing teams.
That means that in terms of the players Milwaukee’s front office actually added to the team’s roster this past season, the net impact wasn’t +1.1 game but -6.1 games.
Stearns and Arnold made occasional feints at improving the talent base, but they rarely worked out. Following a brief exposure in 2021, pitcher Aaron Ashby got a full time starting gig in 2022, but returned only a 2-10 record, 4.44 ERA and -1.3 WAA.
The Brewers made only two additions all season that provided value in excess of a half game of WAA. Hunter Renfroe (+1.0) came over in a trade and rookie Garrett Mitchell (+0.6) won a promotion.
The Brewers ranked seventh for net trade impact, ninth for net free agent impact and 11th for net farm system impact. But the first two of those numbers were more influenced by the departures than the arrivals.