2022 MLB front office rankings: The National League Central

The St. Louis Cardinals basically won the NL Central in 2022 by forfeit. Only one front office in the division made any sort of positive step toward improving its product this just-concluded season, and that one team — the Milwaukee Brewers — was operating from too large an inherent talent gap to make any difference.

Not that Cardinals team President John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch had to do much that was constructive in 2022. Mozeliak and Girsch entered the season with players already under contract who would contribute +20.6 games worth of WAA to the team’s cause. That was an MLB high for residual talent entering the season, and a full 15 games more than any division foe. That made even an unproductive Cardinals front office too top-heavy with talent for the Brewers or any of the division’s weaker sisters to overtake.

The analysis that follows is an assessment of the impact each NL Central front office’s personnel decisions since November of 2021 have had on their team’s standing. It is based on the aggregate Wins Above Average of moves made in five areas:

• Players acquired by trade, purchase or waiver claim.
• Players signed as free agents or extended for more than one year.
• Minor league callups.
• Players lost via trade, waiver claim or sale.
• Players lost to free agency or released.

Wins Above Average is the preferred metric for this calculation because it is zero-based, meaning that it approximately reflects  the number of games by which a front office either helped or hurt its team in the standings.

There were two changes of significance to front office leadership in the division this season. One occurred in Chicago, where former general manager Jed Hoyer was named team president to succeed the departed Theo Epstein, and Carter Hawkins stepped in to replace Hoyer as general manager.

In Milwaukee, David Stearns was promoted to president of baseball operations and Matt Arnold succeeded Stearns as senior vice president and general manager.

Here is the NL Central front office lineup as it impacted 2022.

Chicago: Jed Hoyer, president of baseball operations; Carter Hawkins, general manager.

Cincinnati: Nick Krall, vice president and general manager.

Milwaukee: David Stearns, president of baseball operations; Matt Arnold, senior vice president and general manager.

Pittsburgh: Ben  Cherington, general manager.

St. Louis: John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations; Mike Girsch, vice president and general manager.

From best to worst, here’s an assessment of the impact of the five NL Central front office systems on their MLB teams.

David Stearns and Matt Arnold, Milwaukee Brewers

Impact: +1.1

Division rank: first

MLB rank: ninth

Coming out of 2021, the Brewers had Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Devin Williams, Josh Hader, Freddy Peralta, Willy Adames and a few minor pieces. The Cardinals had Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas and a deep supporting cast. Most of the experts, who made Milwaukee a preseason favorite thanks to its perceived deeper pitching corps, failed to recognize the inherent talent disparity.

Once July turned to August and the Cardinals’ superiority asserted itself, it was too late for the Brewers front office to turn the situation around.

Stearns and Arnold made 41 moves impacting MLB talent in 2022, only 17 of which impacted the Brewers positively. Superficially, the math gives the Brewers front office credit for improving the team’s talent base by 1.1 games, but even that figure is deceptive.

Eight of those 41 moves involved players who Stearns and Arnold either released or let walk to free agency. All eight were subsequently signed by other teams, and the net impact of those eight amounted to -4.9 games of WAA for the signing teams.

That means that in terms of the players Milwaukee’s front office actually added to the team’s roster this past season, the net impact wasn’t +1.1 game but -6.1 games.

Stearns and Arnold made occasional feints at improving the talent base, but they rarely worked out. Following a brief exposure in 2021, pitcher Aaron Ashby got a full time starting gig in 2022, but returned only a 2-10 record, 4.44 ERA and -1.3 WAA.

The Brewers made only two additions all season that provided value in excess of a half game of WAA. Hunter Renfroe (+1.0) came over in a trade and rookie Garrett Mitchell (+0.6) won a promotion.

The Brewers ranked seventh for net trade impact, ninth for net free agent impact and 11th for net farm system impact. But the first two of those numbers were more influenced by the departures than the arrivals.

John Mozeliak and  Mike Girsch, St. Louis Cardinals

Impact: -5.1.

Division rank: third

MLB rank: 20th

The Cardinals were the third of five postseason qualifiers this year to survive a negative front office performance — and the numbers in St. Louis were the worst of the five.

Mozeliak and Girsch probably sensed they were sitting on a holdover talent gold mine, one that amounted to +20.6 WAA. With that as a base, they approached improvement conservatively. The Cardinals’ moves affected only 39 MLB players, the division’s fewest.

The two moves Cardinal fans will remember were the midseason trades to bolster the pitching staff. Jose Quintana came in from Pittsburgh and went 3-2 with a 2.01 ERA in a dozen starts. Jordan Montgomery was acquired from the Bronx and, in 11 starts, he was 6-3 with a 3.11 ERA.

Those certainly were two of the more productive moves, as were the signing of free agent Albert Pujols and the callup of rookie Brendan Donovan. Collectively those four changes improved the Cardinals by 4.8 WAA.

The problems lay in the remaining 35 moves, all the nickel-dime stuff nobody paid attention to. Reliever T.J. McFarland is one example. He signed as a free agent over the winter and only worked 33 innings before being released, but those 33 innings cost his team -1.4 WAA.

In sum, only a dozen of the team’s 39 personnel moves impacted the team positively, while fully two dozen brought a negative return. Almost all those negatives were small, but they added up.

Mozeliak and Girsch had an especially ordinary year dealing with free agents, and there were a lot of them. The front office signed 10 of them and released two others to competitors. But only three of those 12 moves impacted St. Louis positively, Pujols being the notable exception. Nine, meanwhile, hurt, and the composite pain left the St. Louis front office in 29th place among the 30 teams for net free agent impact.

Donovan’s stellar debut was a major reason why the farm system impact rated sixth overall. The Cardinals were 12th in net trade impact.

Nick Krall, Cincinnati Reds

Impact: -6.7

Division rank: fourth

MLB rank: 22nd

Like the Cubs, the Reds front office approached 2022 as a season of experimentation. A full 62 moves involving MLB talent occupied Krall and his staff, although the Reds had less numerical success than the Cubs. Only 18 of those 62 moves benefitted the Reds in 2022; 40 produced negative impact. If, some day, some of the new faces help turn the franchise around, all will be forgiven. In the interim, however…

Also like the Cubs, Krall focused primarily on his farm system. A total of 17 system products got at least a callup, and some of those callups were significant. Rookie pitchers Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft made a combined 62 starts and worked 334 innings. Another rookie, Alexis Diaz, was handed the closer’s role and completed 10 saves with a 1.84 ERA in 64 innings. That mound foursome netted a cumulative 5.1 WAA for the cause.

Unfortunately, the other first-year players were less effective, leaving Krall’s farm system no higher than a tie for 18th among the 30 teams in net impact.

Where Krall really took it on the chin was in his dealings with his fellow chief executives. Trades, sales and waiver claims moved 24 players to or from the Reds, yet only six of those transactions helped the Reds; 16 did damage.

No deals were more illustrative of that than the two times Krall’s path intersected with Jerry DiPoto’s in Seattle. In March, Krall sent Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to the Mariners for Justin Dunn, Jake Fraley and a couple of minor leaguers. Dunn and Fraley combined for a -2.3 WAA impact on the Reds, while Winker and Suarez were a virtually neutral -.2 in Seattle.

Then, at the trade deadline, Krall sent his mound ace, Luis Castillo, to Seattle for four rookies. In 11 starts, Castillo was worth a half-game to the Mariners over the final two months.

Collectively, the Reds front office ranked 28th in net trade impact, beating out only the Pirates and Oakland A’s, two other teams that weren’t really trying. The Reds ranked seventh in net free agent impact largely because Nick Castellanos, who they let walk in the fall, had a bad season in Philadelphia.

Ben Cherington, Pittsburgh Pirates

Impact: -10.5

Division rank: fifth

MLB rank: 28th

Like the Cubs and Reds, life in the Pirate front office was one continuous churn festival. The difference was that while the Cubs and Reds ran through farm system products, Cherington made a habit of moving players by trade, sale or waiver claim.

Cherington’s trade moves affected no fewer than 21 major leaguers leading up to or during 2022. Unfortunately, quantity was emphasized over quality. Only five of those moves produced positive value for Pittsburgh, while 16 hurt the team. The net impact of those deals was -6.7 WAA, a total that ranked 29th ahead of only the Athletics.

Zach Thompson came in from Miami and ran up a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts, good for -1.3 WAA. An early April deal landed Josh VanMeter from Arizona; he hit .187 and scored -1.2 WAA. Tucipita Marcano, a midseason 2021 trade pickup, broke camp with the team and batted .206, good for another -1.2 WAA. And so it went.

The hope is that in time Cherington will have better luck with a 14-player rookie class, notably including shortstop Oneil Cruz. That time, however, was not 2022. Cruz did hit 17 home runs, and his power and defense alone were worth +1.1 WAA. But the Pirates need more from prospects of the stripe of Diego Castillo, Cal Mitchell, and catcher Jason Delay.

Collectively, and despite Cruz, the rookie crop generated -4.4 WAA, ranking 28th ahead of only the Red Sox and Tigers. The Pirates ranked 12th in net free agent impact. But that involved only 13 players. The only signee of note was pitcher Jose Quintana, who did so well that he was off-loaded to St. Louis in early August.