ALCS preview: New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

At the end of Game 6 of the 2019 ALCS, there was an iconic moment that shook the baseball world. Jose Altuve hit a walk-off home run off of New York Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman to send the Houston Astros to the World Series. What took place after the home run was what most ended up talking about.

Altuve appeared to motion to his team to not take off his shirt, which can be pretty standard for any walk-off home run or hit. The utter weirdness of that was compounded by how adamant he was that his shirt was not taken off.

Soon after that took place, the baseball world was stunned with numerous reports of the Astros cheating. The scandal pointed to the 2017 season, but many, especially New York Yankees faithful, believe the cheating didn’t stop there. Many people in the baseball community seemed certain that Altuve wanted his shirt to stay on because a buzzer was underneath. The buzzer was suspected to tip him off to incoming breaking balls thanks to a camera in center field.

Carlos Correa claimed a really bad tattoo was the culprit by saying, “He’s got an unfinished tattoo on his collarbone that honestly looked terrible.” There are horrible tattoos, and then there are, “Please don’t take off my shirt even though I just sent us to the World Series” tattoos. However, my opinion on the issue doesn’t really matter.

The Yankees opinion does, though. Aaron Judge said the following when referencing Houston’s 2017 World Series championship, “I just don’t think it holds any value with me. You cheated and you didn’t earn it”.

Ever since that moment, baseball fans all over have been foaming at the mouth for these two teams to meet in the playoffs … and now we have it. I personally am extremely excited to see the Yankee Stadium reception of the Astros in Game 3 when the series shifts to the Bronx.

Who holds the ALCS edge: The New York Yankees or Houston Astros?

The Astros are the presumptive favorite to win the series. It makes sense too, as the Astros are well rested, they can plan out their starters exactly how they want to, and they looked very good in their sweeping of the Mariners. The Yankees had to fly straight to Houston after Game 5, probably can’t use their number two starter Nestor Cortes until later in the series, and the bullpen is exhausted.

However, you can ask the Braves and the Dodgers about how being “well rested” doesn’t exactly result in a series win. Both the Phillies and Padres came in warmed up after a Wild Card round win, and punched both teams in the mouth to a 3-1 series win, despite being heavy underdogs.

Because of this, I expect a very competitive series, and full of passion due to the history between these two teams.

Starting pitching matchup for first 2 games:

Game 1: Jameson Taillon vs Justin Verlander

Game 2: Luis Severino vs Framber Valdez

On the surface, both starting pitching matchups in the first two games seem to be a huge advantage for the Astros. However, Justin Verlander got absolutely rocked by the Mariners in Game 1 of the ALDS to the tune of six earned runs and 10 hits over 4.0 innings. If the Mariners didn’t decide to bring in Robbie Ray to face Yordan Alvarez, they probably would have won that game.

As far as Game 2 is concerned, Framber Valdez has been a model of consistency this year when he posted a record 25 straight quality starts. He posted a near quality start in Game 2 of the ALDS with a pair of earned runs over 5.2 innings. Luis Severino of the Yankees had a similar performance in Game 3 of the ALDS with 3 earned runs over 5.2 innings, albeit to a much inferior offense and double the hits.

Houston’s offense enters the series after a brutal 18 inning game in which they mustered one run. If they muster one run over the next 18 innings, they will be down 0-2 in the series heading to New York. The Yankees enter with back-to-back solid offensive outings against Cleveland’s tough pitching staff.

The Astros will win if:

Their pitching staff maintains the model of consistency that made them the top seed in the American League in the first place. They will need two solid starts from both Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. Luckily for them, they just have to good enough, as the offense figures to be able to get some runs across on Jameson Taillon and Severino. Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel all had a solid ALDS, and there is nothing to indicate that they cannot continue. Bregman is a seasoned veteran with a lot of playoff experience, he will be key if the Astros were to somehow fall behind.

Also Jose Altuve went hitless in the ALDS. The Astros will need him against the Yankees.

The Yankees will win if:

This is eerily similar to the Braves-Phillies series in my opinion. It started off with a really lopsided starting pitching matchup favoring the Braves. It was Max Fried against Ranger Suarez and, although they got plenty of base runners, the Braves never truly broke through as expected against Suarez, and Fried got roughed up by the Phillies.

That game gave the Phillies all of the confidence in the world because they beat Atlanta’s ace, and knew their aces were going to pitch in the coming days in lopsided pitching matchups in their favor.

If the Yankees can win a lopsided pitching matchup in Game 1 or 2 and head back to New York with a tied series, I could definitely see this series swing in New York’s direction. Bonus points if they rough up Verlander like the Mariners. If the Astros lose confidence in him, they are in serious trouble regardless of their pitching depth.

Astros X-Factor:

The aforementioned Justin Verlander. The Astros will need him back to ace form.

Yankees X-Factor:

Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton started off the win-or-go-home Game 5 with his second clutch home run of the ALDS. The Yanks need him to continue.