The ALCS MVP: It shouldn’t have been Jeremy Peña of Houston Astros

Jeremy Peña had a nice ALCS that certainly contributed to the Houston Astros sweeping the New York Yankees. But contrary to the opinion of voters, he was not the series’ Most Valuable Player.

Statistically, Jeremy Peña wasn’t even second- or third-most valuable player for the Houston Astros in the ALCS

Peña got the award because his contributions were more visible than those of his teammates. For starters, he shared the team lead in both home runs and RBI. His second homer, in the third inning of the clinching game, erased a 3-0 Yankee lead and turned the momentum.

But if you delve at all into the series statistics — something voters rarely if ever do — that data makes Peña no better than the fourth- or fifth-most valuable member of the Houston Astros in terms of contributions to the ALCS  win.

In fact, no fewer than nine of Peña’s teammates ranked higher in Championship Win Probability Added (the metric that drills down on a player’s contribution to team success) than did Peña.

According to Baseball-Reference data for the series, here are the 10 Astros who most meaningfully moved the needle toward a Houston sweep against New York. For those unfamiliar with Championship Win Probability Added, it is an estimate of the change in probability of team success based on what the player did and when he did it.

1. Ryan Pressly — 5.51

2. Alex Bregman — 4.16

3. Framber Valdez — 3.80

4. Cristian Javier — 3.61

5. Justin Verlander — 3.24

6. Chas McCormick — 2.87

7. Martin Maldonado — 2.64

8. Bryan Abreu — 2.49

9. Yuli Gurriel — 2.24

10. Jeremy Peña — 1.88

Let’s give Peña his due measure of credit. His third-inning Game 4 home run was a big deal. Measured by change in Win Probability, it was Houston’s third-most significant turning point of the series, moving the likelihood of a Houston victory Sunday night by 21 percentage points, from just 29 percent to 50 percent.

The only two more significant moments were Alex Bregman’s Game 2 home run, which changed that evening’s outcome by 27 percentage points, and Yordan Alvarez’s go-ahead single in the seventh inning Sunday, which shifted the evening’s odds toward Houston by 25 points.

But to be honest, Peña’s three-run home run — and most anything else that occurred Sunday night — was in terms of Championship Win Probability devalued by the inescapable fact that the Astros already led the series three games to none.

In other words, whether Peña homered or fanned, by that point the Astros were almost assured of winning the series, if not Sunday than Monday, Tuesday or, at worst, Wednesday.

But if Peña wasn’t the ALCS MVP, who was?

The numbers say Pressly for his performance in saving three of the four victories. He retired the final four batters without incident to protect a two-run lead in Game 1, he got the last three outs of a one-run win in Game 2, and he retired the last three hitters Sunday to again protect a one-run lead.

Not a fan of over-hyped closers? I’m not either. Then how about Bregman? His three-run home run in the third inning of Game 2 provided the entirety of his team’s offense, and did so at a moment in time when the Astros only led the series one game to none. Without Bregman’s blast, the series might have returned to Yankee Stadium dead even.

Would that eventually have made a difference? We’ll never know … but you can bet the Yankees think it would have.

It was also Bregman, not Peña, who struck the decisive blow Sunday with his seventh-inning base hit to drive in the eventual winning run.

As stated earlier, this is not to knock Peña, whose contribution was valuable, but some context is in order here. Peña batted seven times during the series with men on base. His three-run home run Sunday, while flashy, was one of only two of those seven times in which he delivered a hit or advanced a runner.

Voters may have also been giving him credit for his pivotal role in Houston’s two-run seventh inning rally that turned a one-run Yankee lead a into a one-run Houston lead. But let it not be forgotten that Peña’s contribution to that rally consisted of hitting a double play grounder … which Gleyber Torres threw behind Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That was the screwup which set up the tying and winning hits by Alvarez and Bregman.

In casting their MVP ballots, ALCS voters opted for the flashy choice in Peña. They would have done better if they had read the data.