World Series Game 3: Odds, prediction and best bets

Though delayed by a day, it’s time for game three of the 2022 World Series with the series tied at one game apiece between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies.

A rested bullpen could mean a short night for one World Series game 3 starter

With both bullpens completely rested after two consecutive days off, it’s Lance McCullers, Jr. vs. Ranger Suarez tonight at 8:03 p.m. on Fox.

I thought the Phillies were undervalued in game one and that turned out to be the right side, but tonight I’m on the Astros, specifically on the first 5 at -124.

The Astros hit left-handers in general and they had a good outing against Suarez in game 161 of the regular season.

That game meant nothing to either team and the Phillies were probably hung over, but the Astros tagged Suarez for 7 hits and 3 home runs in 18 batters.

Meanwhile, McCullers has done well against the Phillies roster in 59 plate appearances, racking up a 30.5% K rate, a .214 batting average against, with only 2 walks and a .253 wOBA.

There’s an unquantifiable home-field advantage for the Phillies that has to be factored into the equation as I expect the Philly fans to be ready, especially after having to wait an extra day.

McCullers has struggled some with his control this season, walking 11.3% of batters and that can’t happen if the Astros hope to take a lead in the series.

This game boils down to what happens early, because with rested arms waiting to hit triple digits on both sides, there’s not likely going to be a lot of scoring late and that’s why I’m on the first 5 tonight.

As far as prop bets go, I like both pitchers strikeout prop, one over (McCullers 4.5) and one under (Suarez 3.0).

On Suarez, this is a bet on how long he lasts in the game.  On the season, he’s struck out 19.5% of batters and it’s even lower against these Astros at 17.4%, plus the Astros don’t strike out much.

To beat 3, Suarez would likely have to face between 18 and 22 batters on average, which seems like a lot for him in this situation, on this stage.

McCullers, meanwhile is a post-season veteran who’s got plenty in the tank after only 8 regular season starts, who unless things go horribly wrong is not likely to be pulled as early, not to mention he has 3 different pitches with greater than 30% strikeout rates.