MLB offseason: Top 25 2022-23 MLB free agents with predictions

The MLB offseason is well underway as some teams have already made some moves on the free agent market and/or with trades.

The New York Mets, for example, have already re-signed their closer Edwin Diaz to a five-year deal. The Dodgers re-signed Clayton Kershaw to a one-year deal. The Pirates traded for first baseman Ji-Man Choi. The Rangers and Braves swapped starting pitchers (Jake Odorizzi to Texas and Kolby Allard to Atlanta).

But Thursday was the deadline for most clubs to issue their team options to players and to offer the qualifying offer, which is for one year and $19.65 million.

Entering Saturday, November 12, 2022, here are the top 25 free agents remaining on the market along with our predictions for what the players will get and some teams that may be interested in them. The rank that they have is based on what they are likely to get in free agency, so some older players (who will get smaller contracts) may not be as high as you’d think because their contract will not be as long.

Top 25 MLB free agents in the 2022-2023 offseason

1) OF Aaron Judge – Giants – Eight years, $320 million

Aaron Judge will win the AL MVP and, perhaps, it will even be unanimous … and for good reason. He led the American League and/or the major leagues in nearly every offensive category. His 62 regular season home runs is the new American League record.

He will turn 31 years old shortly after Opening Day so, despite his phenomenal season, he’s not going to get a huge deal in length, such as Bryce Harper’s 13-year deal that he signed when he had just turned 26 years old.

This doesn’t mean that he wouldn’t get a huge deal, though. An eight-year deal would, essentially, cover the rest of Judge’s career and he would average $40 million per season, which would be the most for any position player in MLB history.

The Yankees are the odds-on favorite for him and both sides have expressed an interest in a deal … but the Yankees might not give Judge enough in years or money. Look for teams with a lot of money to spend this offseason to be linked to him. This includes the Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, Mets, and Padres. However, not all of these teams may be willing to go to $300+ million.

2) SS Carlos Correa – Orioles – Eight years, $288 million

The Minnesota Twins shocked the baseball world by signing Carlos Correa last offseason. With the lockout, he didn’t quite get the market that he hoped for so he signed a three-year deal with Minnesota with an opt-out. He had a good year in 2022 so he exercised the opt-out clause.

This offseason, there are still a lot of free agent shortstops on the market but a lot of teams are looking for an All-Star-caliber shortstop, like Correa. Correa is still the youngest of the big-name shortstops on the market this offseason. His problem has been that he has missed some time for injuries (he didn’t play in more than 110 games in 2017, 2018, 2019, and had two IL stints in 2022, costing him 20 games).

However, when he’s healthy, he’s nearly as good (or better) than Turner.

Correa has expressed an interest in signing with Minnesota long-term and their front office has expressed interest as well. The problem will be if they are willing to open their checkbook that much. With the Orioles, Correa has a connection there with their GM Mike Elias, who was Houston’s assistant GM from 2012 through 2018.

The Orioles, Twins, Dodgers, Red Sox, Phillies, Giants, Braves, Mariners, Angels, Cubs, and Cardinals could all be suitors for Correa.

3) SS Trea Turner – Phillies – Eight years, $272 million

There is a plethora of great shortstops on the free agent market and Trea Turner is the best one of the bunch.

Offensively, his 133 wRC+ since 2019 is second-best among the shortstops in this free agent class (the leader is at 134) but his baserunning, defense, and health put him over the top. His 20.0 fWAR since 2019 is (by 1.2 fWAR) the best among all shortstops and second in all of baseball … to Aaron Judge.

Turner will turn 30 at the end of June so (for an eight-year deal), he’d be contracted through his age 37/38 season.

The Dodgers will be interested in bringing him back but he will have a lot of suitors. Look for the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, Twins, Braves, Angels, Orioles, Mariners, Cubs, and Cardinals could also be in play for him.

4) SS Xander Bogaerts – Dodgers – Seven years, $200 million

Despite playing in a big market (Boston), Xander Bogaerts often flies under the radar in the baseball world.

Of all of the shortstops that are free agents this offseason, his 134 wRC+ since 2019 is actually the highest. His problem has been that his defense has been the worst among all of the shortstops on the market. He also is older than the other shortstops (turned 30 last month).

The teams interested in him will be the same as the ones for Correa and Turner.

5) SS Dansby Swanson – Cubs – Seven years, $168 million

Dansby Swanson has proven himself a lot more in the last three seasons at the plate. Before 2020, his bat was well-below-average. Even with his bat improving, his bat is not as good as the others ahead of him and it’s not particularly close. His best tools are his baserunning and his defense. He’s also the second-youngest to Carlos Correa.

The Cubs are a good fit for him as they need to address a number of things this offseason. They can still get a very good shortstop but use the extra $100 million+ that would be needed for Correa or Turner and instead address another area of the team.

6) Jacob deGrom – Rangers – Three years, $130 million

When he is healthy, Jacob deGrom is arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball. The problem is that he hasn’t been healthy. He has made 26 starts in the last two seasons combined.

Even with that, from 2017 through 2021, he came in the Top 10 in NL Cy Young Award voting, including winning it in 2018 and 2019. He turns 35 during next season so the injury issues may linger. That’s why he likely will only get a three-year deal as well.

Along with the Rangers, the Mets (his team before hitting free agency), Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Cardinals, Angels, Padres, Orioles, and Twins could be in the hunt for him.

7) SP Carlos Rodon – Giants – Five years, $125 million

In the last two seasons, Carlos Rodon has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. He has been an All-Star in each of the last two seasons and, in 2021, he came in fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting. He’s likely get some Cy Young Award votes in 2022 as well.

Rodon is set to turn 30 this offseason, but whichever team that signs him has a huge problem: his health. He has spent parts of eight seasons in the major leagues and he has made 25 or more starts in a season twice. Only one season (this past season) has had more than 30 starts. So, much like deGrom, he is great but can he actually stay healthy?

The Giants have a lot of money to spend this offseason so they could easily re-sign him long-term. He will have similar suitors as deGrom.

8) SP Justin Verlander – Astros – Three years, $120 million

Justin Verlander had a great comeback season in 2022 for the World Series champion Houston Astros and it will likely get him his third AL Cy Young Award. He also finished in second place three times and third place another time, meaning that he will undoubtedly be a Hall of Famer when he is eligible.

Giving Verlander, who turns 40 in February, a three-year deal is obviously a risk but considering that his last two full seasons (2019 and 2022) did and likely will net him Cy Young Awards, he’s obviously still got what it takes.

For Houston, though, he could return to the World Series, which is really the only area where he has continually struggled throughout his career.

If the Astros don’t re-sign him, his suitors will be similar to deGrom and Rodon … but he also could look to return to Detroit.

9) OF Brandon Nimmo – Mets – Five years, $115 million

As with a few of the players on the list thus far, Brandon Nimmo is a great player but he has struggled with an extensive injury history. In 2022, he played in 152 games, which was only the second time in seven seasons in the major leagues that he played in 100 or more games (he was healthy in the shortened 2020 season, though).

Entering his age-30 season, Nimmo has averaged an OPS+ of 133 in the last three seasons, showing that he could be an All-Star worthy bat when he is healthy. However, for a primary center fielder, his defense could be a problem in years to come, especially if injuries arise again.

If he doesn’t re-sign with the Mets, some of the big market teams mentioned above could be suitors (Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Cubs, Red Sox, Braves, Padres, Cardinals, Phillies) and he could have some others including the Rockies (Nimmo grew up a Rockies fan from Wyoming), Orioles, Twins, and Marlins could be darkhorses for him.

10) C Willson Contreras – Astros – Four years, $80 million

In an era where offense at the catching position is very low, Willson Contreras is one of the best (if not the best) catchers in baseball because of his offense.

The Cubs, who are likely to spend money this offseason, don’t seem they are going to re-sign him, though. The Astros nearly traded for him at the trade deadline in 2022 but now that GM James Click is not returning to Houston, the chance that Houston looks into him is a bit less. However, they still need some help behind the plate offensively. Even with playing Martin Maldonado a fair amount for his defense, Contreras could DH fairly regularly (as he did with the Cubs).

The Astros are already looking at playing Yordan Alvarez in left field everyday anyways so the fit there could be a good one.

Other than Houston, the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Giants, Twins, Marlins, and Rays could be fits for him.

11) SP Koudai Senga – Padres – Five years, $75 million

The only player from a foreign league on our list (because he is already a free agent where some other players from other countries haven’t been posted yet) is Koudai Senga.

No posting fee will be required for the starting pitcher who turns 30 this offseason. He’s got a high-90s fastball as well as a great splitter. In 2022, he went 11-6 with a 1.94 ERA in 22 starts with an average of 3.4 walks and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

Senga has expressed a desire to sign with a big market contender so a team like the Dodgers or Giants may make sense. However, the Padres need some starting pitching, are contenders, and have a bigger payroll than you may expect. They aren’t a huge market (like L.A., New York, or Chicago) but they are the only professional sports team in San Diego now.

12) SP Chris Bassitt – Twins – Three years, $66 million

The Mets offered Chris Bassitt the qualifying offer but he turned it down and he will seek a longer term deal. Since nearly every team needs starting pitching, Bassitt should be able to exceed the QO in both length and average annual value (AAV).

In 2020 and 2021, he ranked in the top 10 in AL Cy Young Award voting with Oakland and he has a good season again in 2022 for the Mets. However, he will be 34 next season, meaning that he likely won’t anything longer than three years.

A lot of teams could check in on him including the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, and Mets.

15) SP Jameson Taillon – Padres – Four years, $52 million

Jameson Taillon, who will turn 31 soon, has had his fair share of injury struggles but in the last two years, he has been a league average starting pitcher (100 ERA+).

There are plenty of teams looking for a fourth or fifth starter like that. The Padres will be losing some of their rotation to free agency so they will likely replenish it somewhat on the market. Other than the Padres, the Orioles, Rangers, Tigers, Twins, Cubs, Mets, and Yankees (his most recent team) could look to Taillon on for that.

16) SP Taijuan Walker – Orioles – Four years, $50 million

Taijuan Walker is yet another player on our list that has struggled with injuries in his career. From 2018 through 2020, he made a combined 15 starts in the majors. But in 2021 and 2022, he has made 58 starts. He was an All-Star in 2021 but 2022 was his better season as he had a 3.49 ERA (111 ERA+) in 2022.

Despite already spending parts of 10 seasons in the majors, Walker is only 30 years old. Considering his age and his season, he should be able to get a four-year deal.

The Orioles are a playoff contender that’s in need of some veteran starting pitching so he could be a good fit there. Other teams that could be interested are the Mets (his team the last two years), Cubs, Padres, Rangers, Tigers, Twins, Giants, Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers.

17) SP Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox – Three years, $48 million

Nathan Eovaldi struggled with some injuries in 2022 as he only made 20 starts for the Red Sox, who were and still are in desperate need of starting pitching.

In 2022, Eovaldi, who will be 33 in February, still had a 3.87 ERA (109 ERA+). In 2021, though, he was an All-Star and came in fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting after going 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA. That year, he led the AL in FIP (2.79) and led the majors with his low walk rate (1.7 BB/9).

If the Red Sox could get anything like that again in 2023, a three-year contract would be well worth it. However, because of the injury this year and his age, he may only get two.

In addition to the Red Sox, the Yankees, Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Orioles, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Mets, and Cubs could be some other suitors for him.

18) 1B Anthony Rizzo – Yankees – Three years, $45 million

Anthony Rizzo has been a good fit for the Yankees in the past year and a half and he should be a good fit for the future too.

Rizzo, 33, is starting to get up there in age but he still hit 32 home runs and had 75 RBI in 2022. Defensively, though, he is starting to regress from the Gold Glove first baseman that he once was. The Yankees would be best having him as a DH toward the end of his contract but they likely will still have Giancarlo Stanton there.

Rizzo should have similar suitors that Josh Bell will so he should have a good market if the Yankees decide not to bring him back.

19) 1B José Abreu – Cubs – Two years, $42 million

José Abreu is only two years removed from winning the AL MVP award with the White Sox in 2020. He also has spent the last nine years with the club but with some prospects (like Andrew Vaughn) coming up, it seems likely that the White Sox will move on from Abreu.

Abreu, who turns 36 in January, could be a good first base/DH bat for a lot of teams as he will still hit for a lot of doubles. He hit 40 doubles in 2022 but he saw his home run total plummet from 30 to 15. His RBI total also dropped from 117 to 75.

If he had his 2021 numbers in 2022, he might be able to get a three-year deal but with that sharp decline in those two areas, a two-year deal is more likely.

The Rays, Twins, Mariners, Guardians, Astros, Rangers, Padres, and Giants could also be potential suitors.

20) SP Noah Syndergaard – Rangers – Three years, $39 million

There are a lot of teams that could be looking for starting pitching this offseason. After numerous injuries that cost him all of 2020 and nearly all of 2021, Noah Syndergaard had a good season in 2022.

He had a 3.94 ERA in 25 games (24 starts) for the Angels and the eventual NL champion Phillies but he saw his strikeout rate plummet from 9+ strikeouts per nine innings to 6.3, which is a bit alarming.

He will still have a lot of suitors entering his age-30 season, though. The Angels and Phillies are among two of them but Syndergaard is from Mansfield, Texas, which is a suburb of Dallas, so signing with the Rangers might be something of interest for both sides. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Padres, Twins, and Blue Jays could also look to sign him.

21) SP Sean Manaea – Cubs – Three years, $36 million

Sean Manaea spent last season with the Padres after spending six seasons with the Oakland A’s. He’s yet another starter who has had injury issues as 2021 is the only season he has had in the majors where he made 30 or more starts.

In 2022, he had a down year (4.96 ERA in 30 games/28 starts) so that will impact the market for him.

Manaea, who turns 31 in February, still could get a four-year deal but a three-year deal seems more likely. Manaea grew up in northwestern Indiana so either Chicago team could be a fit as well as much of the suitors that Syndergaard, Walker, and Taillon will have.

22) C Christian Vazquez – Cardinals – Three years, $33 million

The Cardinals have a big hole behind the plate after Yadier Molina retired after 19 seasons with the club and Christian Vazquez may be the man to do it.

Vazquez, 32, is one of the most well-rounded catchers in the sport right now. In 2022 (between the Red Sox and World Champion Astros), he had an OPS+ of 99, which is pretty good for a catcher. He is also one of the best defensive catchers in the sport as well.

He’d be a significant upgrade over Andrew Knizner on both sides of the ball and would be relatively inexpensive.

The Brewers, D-Backs, Guardians, Tigers, and Twins are a few teams that could have interest in him with a three-year deal.

23) RP Taylor Rogers – Rockies – Three years, $30 million

Taylor Rogers was an All-Star for the first time in 2021 when he was with the Twins. Just before the start of the, he was traded to San Diego, who then traded him to Milwaukee in the Josh Hader deal at the trade deadline.

While with San Diego, Rogers struggled and after he went to Milwaukee, he struggled even more.

However, most of his numbers suggest that he had some bad luck (3.31 FIP compared to a 4.76 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 11.8 K/9, 1.181 WHIP) so he should be in line for a rebound season next year.

He is an extreme groundball pitcher, which would be perfect for the Colorado Rockies. Groundball pitchers do better at Coors Field and in the last few years, that’s why much of their pitching staff has actually been better at home than on the road.

They also only had one left-handed reliever in the bullpen for much of the season (or went without one at times) and Rogers is a native of the Denver area (from the Denver suburb of Littleon). The Rockies also have had the worst bullpen in baseball for the last three seasons.

Outside of the Rockies, other suitors include the Phillies, Astros, Braves, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Rangers, Twins, and White Sox.

24) RP Kenley Jansen – Rangers – Two years, $28 million

The Rangers seem poised to make some big moves this offseason after they made big moves last offseason and after they hired Bruce Bochy to be their manager for the 2022 season. Signing a veteran closer like Kenley Jansen would help their pitching staff out a lot.

In 2022, Jansen, 35, made 65 appearances and led the NL in saves (41). He had a 3.38 ERA, 121 ERA+, a 1.047 WHIP, and still averaged 3.1 walks and 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings, all of which are very good for a closer with 13 years in the league.

Nearly every team could use some bullpen help but other than the Rangers, the Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Cardinals, Twins, and Rays could be some teams that show some interest.

25) DH J.D. Martinez – Guardians – Two years, $25 million

J.D. Martinez has been an All-Star in each of the last four seasons that there has been an All-Star Game and, in 2021, he even hit 28 home runs and had 99 RBI.

In 2022, he was off to a torrid start (hence, being selected to the ASG) but faltered after the first third of the season. In his final 85 games, he only hit .224/.287/.367 with eight home runs and 34 RBI.

If not for that, Martinez, 35, might even get a three-year deal but two years will likely be all.

The Guardians desperately need a DH bat so perhaps they would be in on him. The Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Astros, Red Sox, D-backs, Marlins, Padres, Rays, Cubs, Giants, and Doddgers are some potential teams that could sign him.

Honorable Mentions: Mitch Haniger, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Zach Eflin, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, Jean Segura, Martin Perez, Tyler Anderson, Brandon Drury