MLB free agency: The 3 riskiest players set to receive massive contracts
By Scott Henry
3. Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander is guaranteed to be entering the MLB Hall of Fame. He is arguably the best pitcher of the current generation and has 3 Cy Youngs to his name. In fact, he is negotiating a contract coming off of a Cy Young season, which is sure to drive his price way up.
Fangraph’s Ben Clemens estimates Verlander will receive a 2-year, $80 million contract. However, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart wrote that Verlander and his agent are seeking a deal similar to that of Max Scherzer’s.
For what it’s worth, I personally question whether McTaggart can be trusted, considering he left Shohei Ohtani off of his AL Cy Young ballot. However, since he has the inside scoop with the Astros, we will assume this is correct.
Sherzer signed a 3-year, $130 million deal, which broke the record for highest average annual value on a contract at $43.33 million. If Justin’s contract comes anywhere near Sherzer’s, especially the 3 years, there is a ton or risk involved.
First off, Verlander will be 40 at the start of next season. At some point, human anatomy suggests the wheels have to come off. Whether its next year, or the years proceeding it, I have no way of knowing. I do know that I do not want to be paying that player $40+ million when that happens.
The other concerning part of this is how Verlander ended his season. He had a stellar start at the tail end of the World Series, but owned a 5.85 postseason ERA in 2022. It is an extremely small sample size, but it has to create some doubt that Verlander can return to his Cy Young form heading into next year.