As the Philadelphia Phillies (and all other MLB clubs) sit twiddling their thumbs, awaiting a first move or credible leak about the ultra-hot, free-agent shortstop market, perhaps it is time to consider secondary moves for the team no one expected to make it to the World Series this year.
In fact, let’s move to a Phils need designated “tertiary” in this space recently — bullpen help. Roughly two weeks ago, it was observed that Philadelphia’s bullpen is considered wanting, but “no longer pathetic.”
And only faithful fans of the team can know, after the past several years, how positive a statement that is. The Phillies now have two reasonable closer candidates, Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado. However, that doesn’t mean that the bullpen doesn’t need some attention.
While the big names aren’t yet signed, who should the Phillies worry about?
Something always happens to bullpens. For example, last season, the reliever everybody said would be Philly’s closer, Corey Knebel, did not exactly dazzle anyone, ultimately ended up on the 60-day IL, and became a non-factor in the team’s ultimate success.
Some additions to the bullpen should always be on a general manager’s to-do list after November.
So, what free-agent relievers are still available? Oh, there are plenty (101 by my count as this is typed) … but here’s the thing:
According to MLB.com’s evaluations, only six of them have average WAR figures better than 2.0, and MLB.com’s WARs are generally higher than Baseball Reference’s. Moreover, while it is true that few relievers ever have stratospheric WAR figures, three of those rating better than 2.0 on MLB’s list are at least 34 years old — Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Chris Martin.
Worse, both Kimbrel and Jansen are at the top of the list, and both are likely going to cost $15 million a year, minimally, considering their numbers, both those on their recent paychecks and those known intimately by an analytics department.
Thus, the Phillies, with other pressing needs, need to consider the other 99 relievers still available. Big project, huh?
Surely somebody has seen many of these guys pitch well here and there, and there are several on the list who have been Phillies, as is Zach Eflin, listed by MLB as a starter, but converted to relief work this past season in Philly, and a real possibility for resigning.
However, there are two among MLB.com’s top six who probably should be given more serious consideration than Eflin, who has chronic knee problems.
They are Andrew Chafin, a mere child at 32, sporting a 2.3 MLB WAR (1.0 from Baseball Reference), and Chris Martin, the oldest in the MLB 2-point-plus club at 36, but a guy who “bloomed” late and is so tall (6-foot-8) that he releases his pitches around 30 feet from home.
Chafin, a left-hander, who could be coveted by the Yankees and is definitely coveted for them by some who cover the team, might be another option against left-handed hitters for the Phillies, spelling Alvarado. His numbers against right-handers are also very good recently. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he gets good chase rates and, last season, struck out more than one in four batters faced and induced better than 50 percent ground balls.
His ERA for the Tigers in ’22 was 2.83, and overall, his numbers since being traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cubs in ’20 have been great. In 43 games for the Cubs in ’21, he had a 2.06 ERA and a 0.839 WHIP before being traded to the A’s.
As for Martin, he has also bounced around some, and his ’22 season was very fine. Pitching for both the Cubs and Dodgers last season, he went 4-1, with a 0.982 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. He finished the season with L.A., posting a swoon-inducing WHIP of 0.527 in 26 games there. Both Fox Sports and the Sacramento Bee link him to the Phillies already.
The Phillies might also give some consideration to Tommy Kahnle, who missed four months with a bone bruise last season, but it says here, they should consider Chafin or Martin, or both, targets to hit.