After ranking 25th in starting pitcher ERA (4.63) and 22nd in quality start percentage (31%) in 2022, it was clear the Texas Rangers needed to address their starting rotation coming into the offseason.
This offseason, the Rangers have made multiple big moves, with the most recent bringing in lefty Andrew Heaney on a two-year, $25 million deal. Heaney will join Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi as another new addition in this new and improved Rangers rotation.
It’s clear the Texas Rangers have made strong improvements, but is this truly a playoff-caliber rotation?
The Rangers will head into 2023 with an experienced pitching rotation pic.twitter.com/yZV0A1ANcF
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) December 6, 2022
Breaking down the top four pitchers
A playoff team almost always needs three or four elite starters for a playoff run, so let’s break down the Texas rotation as it stands right now.
One thing is for sure … the Rangers now have a true number one ace in Jacob deGrom, something that Texas has been looking for for years. He will look to carry this rotation but, in order to do so, he must stay healthy. It’s now been two straight seasons where deGrom has failed to log more than 100-plus innings in a regular season. Health is a question that applies to more than just deGrom when I look at this top four.
Heaney started just 14 games last year, amounting to 72.2 innings, with three more coming from a postseason relief appearance. Gray missed about seven starts last year with an oblique injury, and has had arm troubles in the past.
Proven consistency is another issue when I look at this top four. Both Martin Perez and Heaney had career seasons last year, with Heaney achieving his career-best at a relatively low sample size of 72.2 innings. We’ve seen flashes of Gray pitch at an ace level, especially this July when he went 4-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 44 strikeouts. Gray has the potential to be a strong number three on a playoff team. The question is can these stellar performances be repeated once again, without injury? It’s unlikely, but luckily this Rangers rotation has some strong depth to back up these question marks.
Finally, you truly must ask yourself how much the Rangers are going to get from deGrom. Can he still make 32 starts and then throw in the postseason? Likely not, but maybe a change of scenery in Texas and smooth offseason can help him get back to the reliable everyday starter he was once.
So much hinges on the health of their new ace. Without deGrom, this team is without a front-line number one starter, and arguably devoid of elite playoff pitching.
Depth
Regardless of your thoughts on the top four, this rotation has some awesome depth. The Rangers can choose between Dane Dunning, Glenn Otto, and Jake Odorizzi for the number five spot. All three are very qualified.
Perhaps the most intriguing part about this rotation depth is the young guns. Young arms Cole Winn and Jack Leiter could certainly be making their debut sometime in 2023, and these highly touted young arms could bring some real quality innings to this pitching staff.
You have to give a hats off to the Texas Rangers front office for attempting to address a known need that is clearly holding this team back. Regardless of my doubts, it’s clear this pitching staff has a plethora of arms to use, both young and old, that will hope to bring this team back into the postseason for the first time since 2016.