On the day that Messi and Mbappe would meet in the World Cup final, the Philadelphia Inquirer print edition surprised Philadelphia Phillies fans with not one but two articles about their team. Yes, on the same Sunday the surprisingly dominant Eagles would push their record to 13-1, the Inky sports editors figured it was a good time for not one but two articles about Aaron Nola, with a heaping helping of Rhys Hoskins thrown on for good measure in one of them.
On pages one and two, no less.
The Hot Stove season did battle with Argentina, France, and the best team in the NFL … and at some length.
The Philadelphia Phillies face a tough decision about the valuable Aaron Nola
In one piece, Marcus Hayes pointed out that the recent Phillies signing of Taijuan Walker coupled to the signing last March of Nick Castellanos was, well, sort of a plan, just in case Philadelphia can’t retain potential 2024 free agents Hoskins and Nola.
Or at least Hayes asked Phillies president Dave Dombrowski if Walker and Castellanos should be seen as replacements for the Phillies veterans, and Trader Dave replied, “Yes, you’re always thinking ahead.”
In this context, that meant it wasn’t really a plan, but that the expensive, loaded Phillies might not be able to afford Hoskins and Nola next winter.
And if that wasn’t plain enough, writer Scott Lauber’s piece about just how expensive Aaron Nola might be was on the next page.
The ultimate overall effect of all of this was that Nola will be really expensive, and that Phillies mainstay Hoskins might well be an afterthought.
It almost made me feel bad that I had suggested last July that Hoskins might be better as trade bait than as a first baseman. That piece obviously preceded the slugger’s bat-slam homer against Atlanta in the NLDS in October, which was a highlight moment in the Phillies run into the World Series.
However, in the end, I don’t feel that view was miles off. Maybe a bit premature since Hoskins did contribute to one of the Phillies most memorable months ever, but not miles off.
After the rough equivalent of five full seasons spread out over six years, Hoskins has been a decent successor to Phillies slugger Ryan Howard. As Hayes points out, the current first baseman has an .833 OPS since 2018, and his 130 homers in that stretch rank 16th in MLB. He has had a good enough eye to hit second in the lineup very frequently. One year he walked 116 times, but no other yearly total came close to that.
He is a streaky power-hitter and an iffy fielder who booked a career-high 12 errors in ’22 despite many assurances that he works hard in that area. Despite also being a clubhouse leader, the betting here is that he will leave the team via free agency next winter.
Hayes thinks he could be replaced at first by Castellanos, a former third baseman. As plans go, this one should strike Phillies fans as a “meh” eventuality, but probable (or at least the part that has Hoskins leaving).
Allowing Nola to leave is another story, despite what will likely be great expense. That is an expense that the Phillies should figure out a way to handle, even if it involves some NFL-like restructuring of other Phils’ deals. All those players should want Nola to return in ’24, barring a serious injury this coming season.
Twice in the past five years he has finished in the top four in Cy Young balloting. In those years, 2018 and ’22, his WHIPs were 0.975 and 0.961, respectively. He has exceeded 180 innings four times, 200 innings three times, and, last season, Aaron Nola finally proved he could he valuable late in the season and in the playoffs.
Based on recent contracts, Lauber suggests it will likely take more than $120 million to resign Nola for five years. The writer never quite scribbles that figure into his piece, but it’s there by implication. It’s a sum the Philadelphia Phillies should fork over. The alternative is a higher average annual fee for a shorter term.