New York Mets shouldn’t be surprised by Carlos Correa’s medical issue

You have to wonder what exactly the New York Mets are worried about in their ongoing negotiations with Carlos Correa.

The New York Mets knew, before they placed a phone call to Scott Boras, that Carlos Correa has surpassed 130 games three times in his eight-year career. At best, they knew that signing a guy with that history to a contract that runs beyond his 40th birthday was a serious risk. At worst, they figured the upside of an infield with Correa and Francisco Lindor for the next decade was worth the risk of Correa not being healthy for a large chunk of time.

This how you run a sports franchise when you have ridiculous amounts of money and there is no salary cap. According to Statista, the Mets generated $302 million in revenue last year, so they could claim that they will lose money in 2023, if the accounting methods of Major League Baseball are to be trusted. But even if the Mets generate no revenue in 2023, owner Steve Cohen can support a $300 million payroll from his personal net worth until well past his 100th birthday.

The more realistic question is whether the Mets should spend this money. Correa is a good player, but his career .836 OPS is impressive in the context of him playing shortstop; as a third baseman, it would have ranked him sixth in MLB in 2022. Add in the injury concerns and whatever weight you want to assign to the advantage Correa gained from playing his home games in Minute Maid Park for most of his career (including during the sign stealing scandal), and it’s possible the Mets will end up spending $315 million for a pretty good part-time third baseman.

That realization might be why the deal hasn’t been finalized yet. It seems inevitable that it will, for something very close to the original terms. And if Correa turns out to not be worth it, Cohen will write off that sunk cost and sign someone else. It’s admirable, in a way. Cohen is willing to risk that this aggressive approach will likely result in more revenue and increase the value of his investment. Even in the world of hedge funds, you don’t get to be worth $17 billion by doing silly stuff.

Cohen is in better position than most to take that risk, because of the New York market and the spare change he has available to invest if he’s wrong. The reality is that most MLB owners could afford to do the same. Cohen is richer than his peers, but, according to Forbes, 28 of 30 teams generated more than $250 million in revenue in 2022. Meanwhile, 13 teams had payrolls totaling less than $100 million.

Sure, there are other costs to consider in determining whether a team is profitable, and teams are still replenishing their balance sheets from the pandemic seasons. Teams have no obligation to make their financial statements public, but fans also aren’t obligated to believe teams when they spend a third of their revenues on player salaries and still claim to be losing money.