MLB Hall of Fame players show their talent early

If you’re an up-and-coming hitter with Hall of fame aspirations, you better perform early.

The data is clear: future Hall of Fame position players announce their presence with authority.

There are 168 Hall members who earned their fame entirely or primarily as position players. Of those 168, more than three in four had at least one 5-win season – as measured by WAR – within their first four seasons of full-time play.

Beyond that, many of the 28 who did not post at least one 5-WAR season by their fourth full-time year are among the most frequently criticized electees. They include such questionable selections as Harold Baines, Dave Bancroft, Rick Ferrell, George Kell, Ray Schalk, and Lloyd Waner.

For the most part, though, the Hall of Fame is populated by guys who shot quickly to prominence. Their average cumulative WAR by the end of their fourth full season exceeded +18.0.

Since WAR is a cumulative stat, it’s important to clarify what we mean by a “full” season. For this discussion, a full season is defined as a minimum of 400 plate appearances.

There’s no better illustration of why this is important than Babe Ruth. He began his career as a pitcher with the Boston Red Sox, and did not hit 400 plate appearances until 1919, when he transitioned to the outfield full-time.

Once he did, Ruth’s WAR basically doubled from 4.7 in 1918 to 9.1 in 1919. For his first ‘full-time’ seasons, then (1919-22), Ruth amassed 40.3 WAR, the largest total of any player elected to the Hall of Fame primarily as a position player.

Nearly one-third of Hall of Fame position players had enjoyed the best seasons of their careers by their fourth full season. Of the 168, 53 (31.5 percent) did that. The prodigies include: Lou Gehrig (11.9 in his third season, 1927), Wade Boggs, 9.1 in his third (1985), Tris Speaker, 10.1 in his fourth (1912), Ralph Kiner, 8.1 in his second (1947),  and Derek Jeter, 8.0 in his fourth (1999).

Willie Mays got to 10.5 WAR in his fourth full season, although that turned out not to be his career best. He peaked at 11.2 in 1965, when he won his second MVP award.

The average Hall of Fame position player surpassed 5.0 WAR in just his third full season. Thirty-five did so in their first full offensive seasons, another 41 did so in year two, and 35 more accomplished that level by just their third full season.

Of all Hall of Fame position players, here are the 10 best WAr totals through their first four full seasons:

1. Babe Ruth, 40.3
2. Ted Williams, 34.1
3. Ty Cobb, 33.4
4. Stan Musial, 33.1
5. Lou Gehrig, 31.5
6. Wade Boggs, 31.3
7. Tris Speaker, 30.3
8. Rickey Henderson, 29.1
9. Mickey Mantle, 28.6
10. Cal Ripken Jr., 28.5

This is a very positive indicator for the Hall prospects of several of the game’s current stars. Juan Soto produced a 7.1 WAR season in his fourth season, 2021, and Yordan Alvarez got to 6.8 WAR in 2021, his first full year.

Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Austin Riley are also off to career starts meeting that Hall of Fame criteria.

But a few players routinely listed among blooming new stars have not yet produced that signature early career season. Jazz Chisholm’s best season to date was only worth 2.5 WAR, Luis Robert hasn’t topped 2.1, and Dylan Carlson’s best is 3.3.