Should Billy Wagner be enshrined into the Hall of Fame?

Billy Wagner is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the eighth year in 2023 and he is looking for a big jump to get into Cooperstown.

Wagner looks to join the few closers already inducted into the Hall – Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Mariano Rivera. The last closers to be inducted into the Hall of Fame were Mariano Rivera, who was the first player in MLB history to be voted in unanimously by the BBWAA, and Lee Smith, who was voted in by the Today’s Game Committee. Wagner has some numbers that make his case for the hall and there are some other numbers that can haunt his chances. Should the seven-time all-star be enshrined into the National Baseball Hall of Fame?

Billy Wagner’s voting progression

Let’s start off with the voting progression. From Wagner’s first year on the ballot in 2016, his voting percentage wasn’t looking very promising. In 2016, Wagner started with 10.5%, in 2017 the percentage decreased down to 10.2%, and gradually increased to 11.1% in 2018. However, the voting percentages started to grow in 2019 with 16.7%, rising to 31.7% in 2020, and continued to increase in 2021 with 46.4%. Last year, he received 51%, and as of this point, is at 73% of the vote per the Hall of Fame tracker. With the progression he has made throughout the eight years, Wagner is getting so close to immortality.

Wagner’s strong case for the hall!

In his 16 years in the big leagues, Wagner was the closer for the Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, and Braves. His resume is right there when compared to the other Hall of Fame closers.

Over his 16 year career, he ranks sixth among all closers with 422 saves, struck out 1,196 batters, and posted a 2.31 ERA and 0.998 WHiP over his 903 innings. He held opponents to a .187 batting average over 3600 plate appearances to show another measure of his dominance.

Wagner was also second in saves among left-handed relievers, just behind John Franco with 424 saves. He has a lower WHIP, K/9 IP, and Opp. BA than Rivera, Hoffman, and Eckersley? That’s unbelievable, but Billy the Kid was that special.

The 5’10” flame throwing lefty could throw 100 mph right by you or could throw that nasty cutting slider where you either stare or swing and miss. If we compare Hoffman and Rivera who pitched in the 90s era with him, respectfully Wagner would be the best out of those closers to strike batters out in the ninth inning. According to Baseball Reference, Wagner ranked first in strikeout percentage (SO%) with 33.2% (Hoffman: 25.8%, Rivera: 23%) and three-pitch strikeouts (3pK) with 257 (Hoffman: 256, Rivera: 224), he also ranked second in strikeout looking percentage (L/SO%) with 24.6% (Rivera: 30.4%, Hoffman: 23.9%).

Another noteworthy stat is that Wagner collected four 100 strikeout seasons and ten 75 strikeout seasons. Hoffman had two 100 strikeout seasons and five 75 strikeout seasons. Lastly, Rivera only collected one 100 strikeout season and four 75 strikeout seasons. Wagner puts up strong numbers with two of the best closers in the game of baseball and those two are obviously in the Hall of Fame.

Wagner’s flaws that can haunt him

Of course, everyone has flaws that can hurt their chances to achieve a certain award, or, in Wagner’s case, the Hall of Fame. Compared to the other Hall of Fame closers, Wagner has the fewest innings pitched. Every closer that’s in the hall has collected at least a minimum of 1,000 innings pitched.

Wagner was a part of eight postseason series over the course of his career. He struggled in that time, posting a 10.03 ERA and 1.971 WHIP. That is especially brutal when compared to Rivera (0.70 ERA, 0.759 WHIP), Gossage (2.97 ERA,  0.894 WHIP), and Fingers (2.35 ERA, 1.169 WHIP). The next Hall of Famer with a poor postseason ERA/WHIP was Lee Smith, who posted an 8.44 ERA and 1.875 WHIP, but Smith only pitched in two postseason series.

He also won just one award when he was named the Rolaids Relief Award winner in 1999. All but two Hall of Fame closers have won multiple Rolaids Relief Awards throughout their careers. Also, all of the Hall of Fame closers have had multiple top-five finishes in the Cy Young Award, two (Fingers and Eckersley) won an MVP award as a reliever, and ALL of them have led their respective league in saves at least once in their careers. Wagner has only had one top-five finish in the Cy Young Award and had never led the league in saves.

What does the future of voting look like for the next generation of closers?

In the 1950s through the mid-to-late 1980s, closers had to pitch multiple innings to earn their save as a closer, helping lead to a lower amount of saves. From the early 1990s until the present, the closer position is generally relegated to just one inning – the ninth – which could help future closers that enter the Hall of Fame ballot. The likes of Francisco Rodriguez have some stronger and/or weaker numbers when you compare their stats to Wagner.

Future closers that can see their name on the ballot, such as Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Aroldis Chapman, will have a chance to jump over Wagner’s career numbers if they stay healthy. If Wagner is inducted despite his lower innings total compared to the other Hall of Famers, then the future is bright for the next batch of closers trying to place themselves in Cooperstown.

Billy Wagner is a Hall of Famer

Billy Wagner does have his flaws due to his postseason numbers, innings pitched, and lack of awards. However, he is one of the best left-handed relievers that the game has ever had. His overall numbers were remarkable.

In my opinion, Billy the Kid should be enshrined into the Baseball Hall of Fame and can possibly make an impact on the future of voting for the next generation of closers.