Why Yuli Gurriel could make sense for Miami Marlins

Yuli Gurriel might well be starting to decline…but he still makes a ton of sense for the Miami Marlins if the price is right.

If nothing else, the Miami Marlins and Yuli Gurriel have one thing in common.

They weren’t very good in 2022.

Which, if nothing else, probably gave Marlins GM Kim Ng and Gurriel something to talk about when they met recently. There’s no denying that Gurriel had a down year last season, and provided plenty of evidence that his decline has arrived. He just posted the lowest WAR, xwOBA, and OPS of his career. His eight home runs were a career low as well once you throw out the 2020 short season. Despite having only played seven seasons in MLB, he is 38 years old, and will be 39 before summer. That’s the kind of age that makes one think those down numbers are much more trend than an aberration.

Fortunately for Gurriel, his worst would still have looked comparatively good in a Marlins uniform last season. His overall paltry .242 BA would have been fifth on the team. His OBP was better than four Miami regulars. And while this particular stat doesn’t translate perfectly from one lineup to another, his 53 RBI in 2022 with the Astros would have led the team with the Marlins.

Fortunately for Miami, he was still playing at an elite level as recently as 2021, when he tied for AL lead in BA, had the highest OBP of his MLB career, and won a Gold Glove. Obviously, those numbers are unlikely to repeat. Yet he has performed at that elite level in an MLB uniform, giving him perhaps more upside than any of Miami’s internal first base options outside of Garrett Cooper. That being said, Cooper has had a very hard time staying in the lineup, and that’s something Gurriel has done remarkably well over the course of his career. Indeed, games played is another area where he would have led the Marlins in 2022.

Bottom-line, even Gurriel’s career average slash line of .284/.328/.448 would have only been topped by Cooper’s .337 OBP, while dominating the competition for average and slugging. His current Fangraphs projection has him hitting .261 this season, which would have tied for the Miami team lead in 2022. So even if he is regressing, it’s still very likely that it is positive gain given the state of the Marlins roster.

If Miami can get him to agree to a reasonable one year deal, or even a one year deal with a club option for a second, they would be wise to pounce.