In 2022, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jacob deGrom combined for 45 MLB starts. In 2021, the total was 70, which was the highest total since 2018. In Heaney’s case, being available has been a mixed blessing for most of his career as 2022 was the first year he posted an ERA below 4.00 since 2015.
Jacob deGrom’s brilliance when healthy is well-documented, but he has totaled 26 starts over the past two seasons and, with the Texas Rangers, will turn 35 before the next All-Star Game.
This is the bulk of the 2023 Texas Rangers pitching rotation, along with holdovers Martin Perez and Jon Gray. Jake Odorizzi is likely to be the first option as a fill-in if (when) someone goes down. The Rangers will pay their projected five starting pitchers a total of $94.65 million this season, which is more than the entire projected payrolls of 11 teams.
You can see the logic. The Rangers were 25th in MLB in ERA from their starters and 24th in innings pitched. Meanwhile, they were 12th in runs scored and reliever ERA, despite less than overwhelming seasons from 2022 free agents Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. So, if they can get their rotation just to somewhere above average, they have the potential to get above .500. If things bounce right, and they get some dividends from a suddenly abundant farm system, they could be in the playoff hunt.
But … things really need to bounce right, especially if the goal is something more than just being in the hunt. The Rangers have put their future in deGrom’s hands, to an extent. He will make $185 million over the next five seasons, and the Rangers would probably be thrilled if they get 100 starts from him during that time span.
The real question is what happens if they don’t. The last free agent that the Rangers signed for this kind of money (other than Seager and Semien) was Alex Rodriguez and, after three years of a 10-year contract, they decided his contract was so onerous that they traded him to the Yankees. And that was after a season in which he hit 57 home runs!
If deGrom gets hurt, the Rangers are likely stuck with his deal. But would they be willing to add another elite starting pitcher to replace him, or have they hit their budgetary ceiling with the contracts they already are committed to? Worse yet, will the deals already on the books keep them from extending the young players just starting to emerge, like Nathaniel Lowe?
Did these deals leave enough room for more additions, or for course corrections if one of them doesn’t work out? That’s what separates large-market and small-market teams — the ability to write off a big deal if it doesn’t work out and move on to the next negotiation.
The Rangers feel like their new stadium, along with the booming Dallas market, gives them the resources to compete financially with the biggest spenders in MLB. We’re about to find out if that’s true.