Every new MLB season produces one or two surprise teams, and 2023 isn’t likely to be an exception.
All you have to do is think back to last season, when the Cleveland Guardians ripped through the final two months of their season at 40-21 to run away with the AL Central. The Guardians were a major surprise to pre-season forecasters, none of whom picked them to beat out the favored Chicago White Sox.
The surprise MLB team of 2021 was certainly the San Francisco Giants. A sub-.500 team for four straight seasons, the Giants exploded for a franchise record 107 victories to capture the NL West from the Los Angeles Dodgers, who had to make do with 106 wins.
It’s only January, but already the oddsmakers have established favorites in most of the six divisions. The Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, and Mets are clear favorites in their four divisions, leaving only the two Central divisions up for debate.
The problem is that once the action begins in earnest, pre-season favorites don’t always play like favorites. The White Sox amply demonstrated that reality last season, delivering a lackluster 81-81 record.
On average over the past decade, only a bit more than half the consensus pre-season favorites actually won their divisional races. That leaves plenty of room for surprise teams to emerge from the anonymous pack.
The question then becomes which teams are most likely to break out of that pack of mediocrity in 2023? Off-season maneuvers, likely supplemented once the regular season begins by the inevitable maturity of young talent, suggest several MLB teams as candidates. Here’s a look at six of them, one for each division.