AL West
The Texas Rangers haven’t produced a winner since 2016, and few give them a chance to contend this year in a division dominated by the world champion Astros.
But for the second straight winter, GM Chris Young put in long overtime hours to improve this franchise, and that work might pay off.
One obvious key is the health of free agent signee Jacob DeGrom. There’s a consensus that when healthy DeGrom may be the game’s best pitcher, just as there’s medical evidence stipulating that he is rarely healthy.
Last year, DeGrom gave the Mets a 3.08 ERA but in only 11 appearances. DeGrom is the MLB equivalent of Wedgwood china: great to look at but rarely taken from the display case. He hasn’t topped 90 innings since 2019.
The Rangers need a minimum of 25 starts and 150 innings from him in 2023. If they get it, that’s Step 1 to being a major surprise challenger to Houston’s divisional hegemony.
Step 2 involves the continued growth of one of the team’s home-grown stars, Adolis Garcia. A 2021 rookie, Garcia has hit 58 home runs in his first two seasons with OPS scores in the solid .750 range.
He was a 2021 All Star and finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting who drove in 101 runs in 2022.
But Garcia has also fanned 381 times in his first 1,303 plate appearances. That’s a 29 percent whiff rate, dampening his value. In a season when the shift will be outlawed, Garcia could substantially improve his production merely by reducing his no-contact rate to MLB average levels. If he does, Texas will have a profound mid-order force.