NL East
In a division lorded over with big-money contenders plus a Washington reclamation project, only the Miami Marlins qualify as a potential surprise. Against the Phillies, Mets, and Braves, the Marlins face a daunting series of obstacles that includes the two most recent National League champions.
Stranger things, however, have happened. So while the NL East is the division least likely to feature a surprise team, here’s the case for why it might.
That case begins with the fact that the Marlins are led by the best pitcher you can actually count on to show up for work. He led MLB in workload last season and has piled up a largely first-rate 434 innings just since 2021.
The team’s strength is its rotation, led by Alcantara but also featuring Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Edward Cabrera. All but Rogers produced ERAs under 4.00 last season, and you won’t find many teams that can say that of their top four starters.
Run production obviously is the concern. The Marlins finished 14th in the league last year in batting average and home runs, and last in runs scored.
The hope is that guys like Jazz Chisholm and J.J. Bleday can spark a turnaround. It’s a longshot, but if they do Miami could be a dangerous surprise with that pitching.