NL West
Since the Dodgers and Padres are summarily ruled out, the contenders for the surprise team of the NL West boil down to the Rockies, Giants, and Diamondbacks. None are particularly plausible. The Rockies have done almost nothing to improve this winter, and the Giants lost out on their two biggest potential catches, Aaron Judge and Correa.
That leaves the Diamondbacks as a potential surprise MLB team, however unlikely that scenario may be.
The D-Backs made one move of significance this winter. In return for catcher-outfielder Daulton Varsho, they acquired Lourdes Gurriel and catching prospect Gabriel Moreno from the Toronto Blue Jays.
Moreno batted .319 in a 25-game debut for the Jays in 2022.
Arizona also has Corbin Carroll, the game’s No. 3 prospect, who projects to make the Opening Day start in right field.
Since the Diamondbacks finished 37 games behind the Dodgers in 2022, the chances of Arizona being a surprise team exceed credibility. Arizona lost 110 games in 2021, and the changes they’ve made over the winter aren’t likely to produce much of a turnaround this quickly.
But given how little either the Giants or Rockies have done, in the unlikely event anybody emerges as a surprise to the Dodgers and Padres, the Diamondbacks are the only plausible option.