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Aaron Judge projection may not be enough for New York Yankees

By David Hill

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 20: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits a fly ball against the Houston Astros during the eighth inning in game two of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 20, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 20: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits a fly ball against the Houston Astros during the eighth inning in game two of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 20, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /
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Aaron Judge had a historic season in 2022. The New York Yankees slugger may be hard pressed to match that in his encore performance but that should not mean his projections are considered disappointing.

After all, Judge did single handedly carry the Yankees’ offense at times last season as he brought them to the postseason. He posted an incredible .311/.425/.686 batting line with 62 homers in his 696 plate appearances, hitting an American League record 62 homers. It would be foolhardy to expect the same level of production.

Fangraphs projections bullish on New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge

Such is the case now that projections for the 2023 season are coming available. Fangraphs projects Judge as posting a .275/.382/.554 batting line with 43 homers while posting 6.8 fWAR. Those are All Star numbers and would certainly put him into MVP consideration, especially if he ends up as the Yankees’ primary source of offense once more.

Those numbers could seem disappointing depending on the context. He would hit 19 fewer homers while his OPS would decrease by 175 points. If one ignores how impressive his 2022 showing was and just focuses on the drops in production, then those projections would seem to be a disappointment.

Instead, those projections still have Judge as one of the best players in the majors for 2023. He is expected to lead the major leagues in homers while finishing in the top three in OPS, runs scored, RBI, and fWAR. He is still an MVP candidate, and possibly the favorite, in the AL heading into the 2023 season.

It is, however, fair to wonder if that will be enough. While the Yankees have addressed their pitching staff and added a needed starter in Carlos Rodon, the lineup is essentially the same. It is even fair to say that the Yankees lineup is worse as Andrew Benintendi departed in free agency. Judge’s projections, as strong as they are, may not be enough.

Next. A bounceback 2023 for Aaron Hicks. dark

Aaron Judge is projected to have another stellar showing in 2023. However, considering the New York Yankees lineup, it may not be enough.

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