Every spring, the baseball seers lock in on four or five MLB teams that in their minds are sure-fire postseason locks and potential World Series winners.
By season’s end, it’s guaranteed that at least a couple of those “locks” will have underperformed, probably to the extent of missing the playoffs altogether.
That was certainly the case in 2022. The expert consensus unanimously targeted the Chicago White Sox as AL Central champions, saw the Tampa Bay Rays prevailing in the AL East and projected the Milwaukee Brewers to vie with the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central.
The experts were wrong on all three counts. They failed to see the Yankees riding Aaron Judge to the AL East, watched while the White Sox performed feebly against the AL Central, and saw the Brewers play sub-.500 ball down the stretch to be overtaken by the Cardinals.
Two of those three underperforming favorites, the White Sox and Brewers, failed even to qualify for a Wild Card spot under the more liberal eligibility rules. The Rays did make it, only to bow out in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians.
Baseball is predictable in its unpredictability. Just one year earlier, the Atlanta Braves surprised the experts by winning the NL East and going on to win the World Series as well. The Giants won a titanic marathon battle with the favored Dodgers in the NL West, and the Rays rode their undervalued pitching staff to an eight-game margin over Boston in the AL East.,
The Padres, Yankees, and Mets — all preseason contenders — each laid eggs once play began.
There’s no reason to expect the 2023 MLB season to be any different when it comes to surprise underperforming teams
We’re nearly two months from Opening Day, but the expert consensus has already formed: Yankees and Astros in the AL East and West, Cardinals and Dodgers in the NL Central and West.
Only within the AL Central (Cleveland or Chicago) and NL East (Mets, Braves, or Phillies) is there a legitimate debate. Yet by season’s end, history says at least some of those consensus predictions will look downright silly.
Here’s a look at four teams that will enter 2023 as consensus challengers at least for a divisional title and possibly for more. Yet in all four cases, there are legitimate reasons for hard-core fans to worry whether the experts are overlooking some potential tripwires.