MLB bold predictions: 4 teams that could underperform in 2023
Every spring, the baseball seers lock in on four or five MLB teams that in their minds are sure-fire postseason locks and potential World Series winners.
By season’s end, it’s guaranteed that at least a couple of those “locks” will have underperformed, probably to the extent of missing the playoffs altogether.
That was certainly the case in 2022. The expert consensus unanimously targeted the Chicago White Sox as AL Central champions, saw the Tampa Bay Rays prevailing in the AL East and projected the Milwaukee Brewers to vie with the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central.
The experts were wrong on all three counts. They failed to see the Yankees riding Aaron Judge to the AL East, watched while the White Sox performed feebly against the AL Central, and saw the Brewers play sub-.500 ball down the stretch to be overtaken by the Cardinals.
Two of those three underperforming favorites, the White Sox and Brewers, failed even to qualify for a Wild Card spot under the more liberal eligibility rules. The Rays did make it, only to bow out in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians.
Baseball is predictable in its unpredictability. Just one year earlier, the Atlanta Braves surprised the experts by winning the NL East and going on to win the World Series as well. The Giants won a titanic marathon battle with the favored Dodgers in the NL West, and the Rays rode their undervalued pitching staff to an eight-game margin over Boston in the AL East.,
The Padres, Yankees, and Mets — all preseason contenders — each laid eggs once play began.
There’s no reason to expect the 2023 MLB season to be any different when it comes to surprise underperforming teams
We’re nearly two months from Opening Day, but the expert consensus has already formed: Yankees and Astros in the AL East and West, Cardinals and Dodgers in the NL Central and West.
Only within the AL Central (Cleveland or Chicago) and NL East (Mets, Braves, or Phillies) is there a legitimate debate. Yet by season’s end, history says at least some of those consensus predictions will look downright silly.
Here’s a look at four teams that will enter 2023 as consensus challengers at least for a divisional title and possibly for more. Yet in all four cases, there are legitimate reasons for hard-core fans to worry whether the experts are overlooking some potential tripwires.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers may have won 86 games and come within a game of making the playoffs in 202, but, statistically, they were an average club at best.
The numbers don’t lie. Milwaukee was 11th in the NL in batting average in 2022, seventh in on base percentage, and sixth in OPS+ at 105, only marginally above the league average.
The Brewers’ reputation is as a pitching-dominated team, yet they were sixth in ERA, eighth in fewest runs allowed, 11th in fewest home runs allowed, and sixth in ERA+, their score of 104 again being only marginally above the league average.
What did Milwaukee do over the offseason to improve its stature in the NL Central? The big move was a trade for catcher William Contreras, a 2022 All-Star. Catching was a weak spot in Milwaukee. The two regulars, Victor Caratini and Omar Narvaez, combined for just 0.8 WAR and a negligible two Defensive Runs Saved.
The big concern, though, ought to be with rotation. Milwaukee has leaned heavily on its three stalwarts (Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta), but all three regressed in 2022, although from lofty peaks.
Burnes added a half-point to his ERA (2.43 to 2.94) and saw his ERA+ fall from 170 to 134. Woodruff’s ERA also rose by a half-point, from 2.56 to 3.05, with a corresponding decline in ERA+ from 161 to 129.
As for Peralta, injuries limited him to just 78 innings in 2022. He added three-quarters of a point to his ERA, from 2.81 to 3.58, while seeing his ERA+ fall from 147 to 110.
And no, it wasn’t a case of offensive improvement across the league. The NL ERA actually fell from 4.20 to 4.05. The Brewers’ aces experienced real, tangible performance declines.
They may, obviously, bounce back. It’s also possible that Milwaukee’s additions (chiefly Wade Miley) could help. But Miley only produced 37 innings for the Cubs in 2022, so he can hardly be counted on.
If Woodruff, Burns, and Peralta do not return to elite status, it could be a tough season in Milwaukee.
New York Yankees
The Yankees won 99 games and captured the AL East with surprising ease in 2022. It would be a first-magnitude upset if they did anything substantially less this coming season.
Still, there are valid reasons not to get swept up in the hype that often surrounds everything that takes place in New York.
Begin with the fact that the Yanks’ big offseason “addition” — the signing of Aaron Judge — wasn’t an addition at all. In tying up Judge for the foreseeable future, the Yanks merely prevented a loss.
And, no slight to Judge intended, the brilliance of his 2022 season virtually guarantees that some regression is inevitable this coming year. How often, after all, do you expect a player to hit 62 home runs?
Judge produced 10.6 WAR last year. That total has been achieved only two dozen times in the nearly 150-year history of the Major Leagues, and only five times in this century, three of those by Barry Bonds. It would hardly qualify as a surprise if Judge’s impact receded by three or four games.
There are other potential concerns, notably age. The average age of the 16 players comprising the projected starting nine, the five rotation regulars and closer is 30.6, and 12 of those 16 are over 30.
The Yanks are counting on big seasons from players whose best years are almost certainly behind them, notably Anthony Rizzo (33), Josh Donaldson (37), and DJ LeMahieu (34).
Giancarlo Stanton, who will be 33, has averaged less than 2.0 WAR in his five seasons in the Bronx.
Obviously the Yanks still have plenty going for them, not the least of it being Judge and their one true offseason acquisition, pitcher Carlos Rodón. They will appropriately enter the season as AL East favorites … but there are potential land mines.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox, with their cast of vaunted 2017-era prospects coming to maturity, have been the darlings of preseason prognosticators for three years now. Part of this is explainable by the perception that the AL Central is a weak division, and part by the fact that the reputations of guys such as Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease have to date generally exceeded their performance.
The collective result has been measurable yet underwhelming. During the shortened 2020 season, the Southsiders tied for second in the five-team division and earned a spot in the expanded playoffs, losing to Oakland. One year later, they won the Central but lost to Houston in four games.
Last year, the Sox finished a distant second to the Guardians with an inglorious .500 record. Injuries to shortstop Tim Anderson, Robert, Jimenez and Moncada provided a convenient excuse. However, after several years of underwhelming results, it’s time to ask whether that vaunted young core is close to what it’s been cracked up to be.
In the 104 games he did play, Moncada batted .212 with a desultory 76 OPS+; his 107 career OPS+ is above average but hardly star-level.
The pitching staff is equally culpable. Cease and Lucas Giolito have performed but, beyond that, the Sox propose to lean on Lance Lynn, Michael Kopech, and Mike Clevinger. Clevinger’s relationship problems have been sufficiently documented that they need not be addressed here beyond the observation that if he pitches this year, it will surprise a lot of folks.
As for Lynn and Kopech, there are other issues. Lynn is entering his age-36 season and coming off his worst performance since 2018. He was 8-7 with a 3.99 ERA in just 21 starts and 122 innings.
Kopech, one of the hot prospects from five years ago, has never really blossomed. He’s still only 27, but managed just a 5-9 record in 25 starts covering just 119 innings.
New York Mets
Given the amount of money team owner Steve Cohen has spent to acquire talent, expectations are stratospheric in Queens. It’s an impressive roster, starting with co-aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Nobody would be surprised if the Mets won the World Series.
But even in such a ritzy clubhouse, potential tripwires loom.
It was noted earlier that the Yankees are aging, a trait that is always problematic. The Mets are aging even faster. Their three front-line offseason acquisitions (starters Verlander, Jose Quintana and Kodai Senga) average nearly 35 years old, a point at which performance decline becomes more likely. Throw in 38-year-old Scherzer and 36-year-old Carlos Carrasco and you have a starting five averaging better than 35.5 years.
Granted, age is not a perfect indicator. Verlander is, after all, the reigning AL Cy Young winner and Quintana is coming off the best season of his career. Still, in committing to that aged a rotation, the Mets are rolling the dice both on health and performance.
There’s also history to contend with, and while the past isn’t necessarily prologue in baseball, it shouldn’t be dismissed either.
In 2022, the Mets became just the fourth team in franchise history to top 100 victories, winning 101 games. The other three Mets teams to do so were in 1969 (100 wins), 1986 (108), and 1988 (100).
What was the average performance decline in the seasons immediately following those three 100-plus win seasons? It amounted to more than 15 games. All three of those subsequent teams (1970, 1987 and 1989) underperformed what their numbers said they should have done — their Pythagorean projection — and that underperformance amounted to nearly four games per season.
It probably doesn’t make the 2023 Mets feel any more comfortable to know that, in 2022, they overperformed their projections by two games. Can you say regression to the mean? That could be a statistical fact the 2023 Mets have to fight.