MLB bold predictions: 4 teams that could underperform in 2023
By Bill Felber
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers may have won 86 games and come within a game of making the playoffs in 202, but, statistically, they were an average club at best.
The numbers don’t lie. Milwaukee was 11th in the NL in batting average in 2022, seventh in on base percentage, and sixth in OPS+ at 105, only marginally above the league average.
The Brewers’ reputation is as a pitching-dominated team, yet they were sixth in ERA, eighth in fewest runs allowed, 11th in fewest home runs allowed, and sixth in ERA+, their score of 104 again being only marginally above the league average.
What did Milwaukee do over the offseason to improve its stature in the NL Central? The big move was a trade for catcher William Contreras, a 2022 All-Star. Catching was a weak spot in Milwaukee. The two regulars, Victor Caratini and Omar Narvaez, combined for just 0.8 WAR and a negligible two Defensive Runs Saved.
The big concern, though, ought to be with rotation. Milwaukee has leaned heavily on its three stalwarts (Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta), but all three regressed in 2022, although from lofty peaks.
Burnes added a half-point to his ERA (2.43 to 2.94) and saw his ERA+ fall from 170 to 134. Woodruff’s ERA also rose by a half-point, from 2.56 to 3.05, with a corresponding decline in ERA+ from 161 to 129.
As for Peralta, injuries limited him to just 78 innings in 2022. He added three-quarters of a point to his ERA, from 2.81 to 3.58, while seeing his ERA+ fall from 147 to 110.
And no, it wasn’t a case of offensive improvement across the league. The NL ERA actually fell from 4.20 to 4.05. The Brewers’ aces experienced real, tangible performance declines.
They may, obviously, bounce back. It’s also possible that Milwaukee’s additions (chiefly Wade Miley) could help. But Miley only produced 37 innings for the Cubs in 2022, so he can hardly be counted on.
If Woodruff, Burns, and Peralta do not return to elite status, it could be a tough season in Milwaukee.