MLB bold predictions: 4 teams that could underperform in 2023
By Bill Felber
New York Yankees
The Yankees won 99 games and captured the AL East with surprising ease in 2022. It would be a first-magnitude upset if they did anything substantially less this coming season.
Still, there are valid reasons not to get swept up in the hype that often surrounds everything that takes place in New York.
Begin with the fact that the Yanks’ big offseason “addition” — the signing of Aaron Judge — wasn’t an addition at all. In tying up Judge for the foreseeable future, the Yanks merely prevented a loss.
And, no slight to Judge intended, the brilliance of his 2022 season virtually guarantees that some regression is inevitable this coming year. How often, after all, do you expect a player to hit 62 home runs?
Judge produced 10.6 WAR last year. That total has been achieved only two dozen times in the nearly 150-year history of the Major Leagues, and only five times in this century, three of those by Barry Bonds. It would hardly qualify as a surprise if Judge’s impact receded by three or four games.
There are other potential concerns, notably age. The average age of the 16 players comprising the projected starting nine, the five rotation regulars and closer is 30.6, and 12 of those 16 are over 30.
The Yanks are counting on big seasons from players whose best years are almost certainly behind them, notably Anthony Rizzo (33), Josh Donaldson (37), and DJ LeMahieu (34).
Giancarlo Stanton, who will be 33, has averaged less than 2.0 WAR in his five seasons in the Bronx.
Obviously the Yanks still have plenty going for them, not the least of it being Judge and their one true offseason acquisition, pitcher Carlos Rodón. They will appropriately enter the season as AL East favorites … but there are potential land mines.