New York Mets
Given the amount of money team owner Steve Cohen has spent to acquire talent, expectations are stratospheric in Queens. It’s an impressive roster, starting with co-aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Nobody would be surprised if the Mets won the World Series.
But even in such a ritzy clubhouse, potential tripwires loom.
It was noted earlier that the Yankees are aging, a trait that is always problematic. The Mets are aging even faster. Their three front-line offseason acquisitions (starters Verlander, Jose Quintana and Kodai Senga) average nearly 35 years old, a point at which performance decline becomes more likely. Throw in 38-year-old Scherzer and 36-year-old Carlos Carrasco and you have a starting five averaging better than 35.5 years.
Granted, age is not a perfect indicator. Verlander is, after all, the reigning AL Cy Young winner and Quintana is coming off the best season of his career. Still, in committing to that aged a rotation, the Mets are rolling the dice both on health and performance.
There’s also history to contend with, and while the past isn’t necessarily prologue in baseball, it shouldn’t be dismissed either.
In 2022, the Mets became just the fourth team in franchise history to top 100 victories, winning 101 games. The other three Mets teams to do so were in 1969 (100 wins), 1986 (108), and 1988 (100).
What was the average performance decline in the seasons immediately following those three 100-plus win seasons? It amounted to more than 15 games. All three of those subsequent teams (1970, 1987 and 1989) underperformed what their numbers said they should have done — their Pythagorean projection — and that underperformance amounted to nearly four games per season.
It probably doesn’t make the 2023 Mets feel any more comfortable to know that, in 2022, they overperformed their projections by two games. Can you say regression to the mean? That could be a statistical fact the 2023 Mets have to fight.